A couple of days ago, one of DoD’s polar-orbiting weather satellites — “F-13” — exploded. They aren’t sure why, but one insider has claimed it was an overheated battery. I guess I don’t see how an overheated battery causes the disintegration of a satellite into 40+ chunks, unless it ignited leftover hydrazine propellant.

Now, I don’t consider myself superstitious, but there has been a pattern of failure among space missions involving the number “13”.

Out of the NOAA polar orbiting satellites (NOAA-6, -7, -8, -9, -10, -11, -12, -13, -14, -15, 16, -17, -18, -19), which one might you guess failed? That’s right, NOAA-13. In 1993 after less than 2 weeks on orbit, NOAA-13 experienced a short circuit in it’s battery charging system, rendering the satellite useless. In contrast, NOAA-15 is now in it’s 17th year of continuous operation.

And guess which Apollo mission nearly ended in disaster? Apollo-13, after an oxygen tank exploded and Tom Hanks almost single-highhandedly brought the Moon mission safely home.

And what about the GOES-13 geostationary weather satellite that failed just before hurricane season started (in 2013!). It was later brought back from the dead (after 2013, of course).

I think I would just skip “13” when numbering satellites. Maybe use “12A” instead.

And don’t get me started about calling a satellite “ADEOS”. The Japanese Earth observation satellites ADEOS-I and ADEOS-II both failed early in their missions from solar panel malfunctions. The successful follow-on Japanese satellite is GCOM-W, which fortunately doesn’t mean “bye-bye” in any language.

Oh! I almost forgot! The Japanese name for the 2 failed ADEOS satellites was “Midori”, which in Japanese means…wait for it…”green”.

The Version 5.6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for February, 2015 is +0.30 deg. C, down a little from the January 2015 value of +0.35 deg. C (click for full size version):

The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 14 months are:

YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
2014 01 +0.291 +0.387 +0.194 -0.029
2014 02 +0.170 +0.320 +0.020 -0.103
2014 03 +0.170 +0.338 +0.002 -0.001
2014 04 +0.190 +0.358 +0.022 +0.092
2014 05 +0.326 +0.325 +0.328 +0.175
2014 06 +0.305 +0.315 +0.295 +0.510
2014 07 +0.304 +0.289 +0.319 +0.451
2014 08 +0.199 +0.244 +0.153 +0.061
2014 09 +0.294 +0.187 +0.401 +0.181
2014 10 +0.365 +0.333 +0.396 +0.189
2014 11 +0.329 +0.354 +0.303 +0.247
2014 12 +0.322 +0.465 +0.178 +0.296
2015 01 +0.351 +0.553 +0.150 +0.126
2015 02 +0.296 +0.434 +0.157 +0.015

Note that the El Nino warmth in the tropics seems to have fizzled, falling about 0.25 deg C in the last few months to near the 1979-2010 average value, which is unusual since February has been the usual time of peak tropospheric warmth in response to previous El Nino events.

The global image for February, 2015 should be available in the next day or so here.

Popular monthly data files (these might take a few days to update):

uahncdc_lt_5.6.txt (Lower Troposphere)
uahncdc_mt_5.6.txt (Mid-Troposphere)
uahncdc_ls_5.6.txt (Lower Stratosphere)

A strong cold front is forming today and will plunge through the Deep South, bringing a 40 deg. F temperature drop.

Here’s a time lapse video of hourly temperature forecasts from the WRF high resolution model, showing just how abrupt the temperature change will be as the front passes (original graphics from Weatherbell.com):

Winter storm warnings have been issued for northern portions of the South where up to a foot of snow is expected, mainly through the Ohio River Valley: