As China’s Tiangong-1 Space Station now rapidly falls to meet its fiery demise in the next several hours, the Aerospace Corporation’s most recent estimate of the potential paths of reentry show that China has the greatest statistical chance of any country of seeing the spectacle, with the longest potential reentry orbit sections:

Aerospace Corp estimate of the most likely orbits which the Tiangong-1 satellite will reenter the atmosphere from. Graphic courtesy of satflare.com.

Of course, the Pacific Ocean and the S. Atlantic have a bigger chance, but it would be fitting if China got a few pieces of their first Space Station returned to them.

The latest estimated reentry time (see updates here) is 8:18 EDT today (April 1), +/-2 hours.