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One of the main complaints rational people have had about global warming projections is that the “baseline” scenarios assumed for future CO2 emissions are well above what is realistic. As Roger Pielke, Jr, has been pointing out for years, the U.N. IPCC continues to make these exaggerated scenarios a high priority, and it looks like the next IPCC Assessment Report (AR7) will continue that tradition.
While Roger doesn’t believe there are nefarious motives in this strategy, I do: The IPCC knows very well that as long as climate models are run that produce extreme amounts of climate change, few people will question the assumptions that went into those model projections. Peoples’ careers now depend upon the continuing fear of a “climate crisis” (which has yet to materialize).
But I haven’t been able to find a good, recent graph showing how actual global CO2 emissions compare to those scenarios. So I made one. In the following plot I show estimates of global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use through 2023, and EIA projections every 5 years from 2025 through 2050 (green). Also shown are the latest (AR6) SSP scenarios that come closest to the AR5 RCP scenarios. (In order to get the SSP scenarios to line up pretty well with the actual emissions in the early years I had to subtract the SSP land use CO2 emissions from the SSP total CO2 emissions values).
While an emissions scenario like SSP5-8.5 has been widely used to scare humanity with climate model projections of extreme warming, this plot shows the last several years of global emissions (through 2023) suggest the future will look nothing like that scenario.
(And, it should come as no surprise that “Net Zero” emissions by 2050 is a delusion.)
I encourage everyone to subscribe to Pielke’s The Honest Broker substack, where he discusses this and related issues in great detail.
“But I havent been able to find a good, recent graph showing how actual global CO2 emissions compare to those scenarios.”
https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/emissions-are-no-longer-following
Don’t you consult your colleagues in the field? Like one of my professors used to say, working in a vacuum sucks.
What’s with your headline picture? No self-respecting cowboy would get caught out in the open during a lightning storm. Those two should be down in an arroyo or up against a rock cliff wall, preferably with considerable overhang.
Real cowboying is not that romantic.
Seems to me no self respecting cowboy would go running to mommy just because of lightning. I don’t. But there is a message in the picture, if you think about it. Examine what is going on there.
Have you ever been struck by lightning?
–Are you seriously asking that question? In 2022, 19 people in the U.S were struck and killed by lightning. In that same year, 7,508 pedestrians were struck and killed by cars. Do you run and hide from cars? Or do you take your chances and cross the street? I live in a tornado prone area, but I don’t go hide in the closet when there is a tornado warning, because I know the chances of taking a direct hit from a tornado are very small. I’d rather watch the show. But since you apparently speak for cowboys, maybe they are a different breed than I assumed they were… — Roy
Lightning, shmightning, a few million extra volts now and then just makes you tough!
–The vast majority of people struck by lightning survive. Most of the few who die (19 in the U.S. in 2022) could have been revived by people nearby. -Roy
Dr Spencer,
Sounds like reckless behavior IMHO.
I lived in tornado alley for 30 years, in southwest Kansas and North Texas, and I always heeded the warnings. If your home takes a direct hit you’ll have a better chance of survival in the more structurally sound areas of the house which normally aren’t “the closet” or wherever it is you “watch the show.”
I don’t presume to “speak for cowboys,” but I’ve had a second home in Wyoming since 1974. I can’t say that I’ve ever met a single person who didn’t show proper respect for the danger and the power of lightning strikes. Go hiking in the Bighorn Mountains and you’ll see innumerable instances where lighting strikes have split boulders and/or trees.
Lastly, you cannot compare getting run over by a bus with recklessly exposing oneself to a lightning strike or a tornado bringing down your house on top of you and your family.
Besides, do you not look both ways when crossing the street? It’s the same heuristic as not sitting out in the open during a lightning storm, no?
If doesn’t kill you, do you end up with a super power?
According to Wikipedia
“Lightning strikes can produce severe injuries in humans, and are lethal in between 10 and 30% of cases, with up to 80% of survivors sustaining long-term injuries”
Essentially, according to Dr. Spencer’s estimates, human emissions in 2050 will still be about 4% of total emissions. Seems like much ado about nothing.
You can flood a leaky pool with a trickle of water.
It’s the mass balance, not the inflow that counts.
Hey, you’re right. It is the mass balance that counts. Dr. Ed Berry has three papers that explain it fully.
I had not seen that, thanks. It’s over a year old, and doesn’t have the SSP scenarios on the graph, but it still makes the same case. I knew Zeke has published on this very issue, but had not seen this website. But then, a lot of my fellow skeptics don’t follow my blog, either. (BTW, Zeke isn’t a skeptic).
Even though the developing world is still growing its energy use.. Seems to suggest that all the efforts to transition to renewables are actually making a difference…
I wouldn’t go that far… the biggest advances have been from fracking and other technological improvements which have changed the economics of coal vs. natural gas, and continuing improvements in energy efficiency, which will happen in free market economies anyway.
The energy transition is moving slower than a sloth on a hot day.
The Energy Institute produced a Statistical Review in June 2023 (covering 2022), and on June 20, 2024 added a Statistical Review covering 2023.
The 4,748 TWh of almost entirely solar and wind power generated in 2023 came to all of 17.1 EJ, which is just 2.7% of the 620 EJ of world primary energy consumption.
C’mon people, the fastest growing electricity sources are solar and wind at the moment And in the Great plains wind power is often the largest source.
In Europe lots of growth in renewables and reduction in use of Russian gas.
In China, an actual effort to add
renewables.
— Globally, the fastest growth in electricity sources is FOSSIL FUELS. We need more nuclear, not piddly bird-choppers and forest-destroying solar “farms” which can’t hope to displace more than a tiny fraction of the world’s energy needs. -Roy
You are right about coal to natural gas, but how we doing on growth of atm methane?
Methane is a bit player, with short residence time in the atmosphere. -Roy
Its forcing is hardly a bit player, looks like ~ 1/3 of CO2. Matters if we are concerned about exceeding thresholds and tipping points.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1979-_Radiative_forcing_-_climate_change_-_global_warming_-_EPA_NOAA.svg
“Matters if we are concerned about exceeding thresholds and tipping points.”
I’m not. Are you?
Mike Flynn,
Nobody cares if you care or not about methane, whether it’s in the sea floor or in our ruminants’ digestive tracts.
Your worthless opinion has been duly noted and ignored.
Its residence time is short, but its forcing potential per unit time is hundreds of times that of CO2. My understanding from all reading that has crossed my path is that it is well-worth reducing methane emissions as they yields a significant reduction in overall forcing, and do so fast.
Nate and Elliott continue to be confused by the cult “science”. The concept of “radiative forcing” originated with the idea that more CO2 in the atmosphere means more “forcing” of global temperatures, ie more “heating”. But that ain’t science.
Adding more CO2 to the atmosphere can NOT raise surface temperatures. CO2 is a radiative gas. CO2 emits energy to space. So adding more CO2 means more emission to space. That would result in cooling, if anything.
Methane is NOT a bit player
Methane is the second most abundant anthropogenic GHG after carbon dioxide (CO2), accounting for about 16 percent of global emissions. Methane is more than 28 times as potent as carbon dioxide at trapping heat in the atmosphere. Over the last two centuries, methane concentrations in the atmosphere have more than doubled, largely due to human-related activities. Because methane is both a powerful greenhouse gas and short-lived compared to carbon dioxide, achieving significant reductions would have a rapid and significant effect on atmospheric warming potential.
https://www.epa.gov/gmi/importance-methane
As well when methane gives up its residence in the atmosphere, it becomes CO2.
methane + oxygen → carbon dioxide + hydrogen
Clint-bot repeats his silly never supported talking points.
Nobody buys his crap, particularly not Roy Spencer.
Nate, you childishly trip over your own nonsense, again.
If you believe CO2 can raise surface temperatures, please provide the relevant physics.
This should be good….
Roy has provided it several times. You claimed he is not an expert.
Bwa ha ha!
‘Cmon people, the fastest growing electricity sources are solar and wind’
Any reliable source of data says that hydrocarbons are growing and growing faster than solar and wind.
Wind and Solar can’t do:
Concrete
Iron
Plastic
Ammonia
If wind and solar can’t do 4 pillars of civilization then its pointless.
Once again Kennui willingly confuses Net Zero with Zero CO2.
Let’s hope he wasn’t an accountant in his active life.
Electric-arc smelters are already in use for steel manufacture, as you are aware. There’s no reason that the same operating principles could not be applied to the furnaces used to produce cement. The Haber-Bosch process, likewise, requires heat and pressure, not oil. It can be driven by renewable energy.
As for plastic, the oil used to provide feed-stock is not emitted into the atmosphere until such time as the plastics are burnt. And in any case, there is nothing to prevent us getting feed-stock from plant oils, once the oil runs out.
Ken in 1900 would be saying electric lighting will never catch on.
In 1920 he would be stickin with his horse.
Today he is still pining for incandescent light bulbs.
Elliot, with respect because you are so smart and well informed, you do not understand furnace heat transfer at all. All fired equipment include hot water heaters and the gas stove in your house depend on radiant heat transfer from the combustion gases, typically referred to as flue gas. Hot air does not work very well. In my opinion, this is the most obvious evidence of the effect of radiant heat transfer in the gas phase.
I challenged Gordon and he never got back to me. Get an industrial heat gun, often used in the plastics industry. Try boiling a pan of water with a heat gun. Get back to us with the results.
Willard do you want to pay dinner for the SCIENTISTS that promote absolute zero co2 by 2050 when 20 GtCO2/y is sufficient to stabilise the CO2 level in the atmosphere?
BTW therefore it is the Chinese with their coal promotion in 2000 who are directly to blame for the continuing rise of CO2 in the atmosphere where all other industrialised countries reduced emissions?
Hans do you ever wonder what would happen if geophysicists knew that you spend your work breaks talking behind their BACKS?
I mean, you owe them your livelihood.
Tim S – You’re right to say that I don’t understand the physics of furnace heat transfers, but I have good information that not only electric-arc but also induction furnaces are in industrial use. Iceland, in particular, with its excess of renewable energy, is using electric furnaces on a large scale to essentially export its energy in the form of metal parts and goods.
Electric-arc furnaces are said to range up to 400 tonnes and to be especially useful for smelting scrap.
“China directly to blame for the continuing rise of CO2 in the atmosphere where all other industrialised countries reduced emissions?”
China became the dominant global manufacturer of all the stuff we wanted to buy.
Whereas Europe and US shifted to service industries. Our energy needs per $ of GDP plummeted.
Nix Net Zero
AR6 projected a decline in global CO2 emissions in the near future. Looks like those grim predictions of the future have worked.
Happily, the steady transition to renewables has not ushered in economic armageddon. Seems the alarmists were wrong.
Yes, going by the graph posted by Dr. Roy it seems on the face of it that action is working. And as you say, the economic apocalypse predicted by the alarmists has failed to materialise as renewables have taken off. The Keeling Curve still has me a bit worried. It could indicate that carbon emissions from soil degradtion, forest and peat fires or some other feedback are taking over from fossil fuels. But the general picture seen above the line is good news.
Looking at the chart, we diverged from the worst scenario only in about 2010.
Looks like some people are listening and taking action.
Have we slowed down enough to keep from going over the cliff?
Time will tell.
I am inclined to technological optimism, but political pessimism. The picture painted by Dr. Roy’s graph suggests we’re going the right way. I believe that we are starting to see explosive growth of renewables. Photovoltaics, in particular, will follow a Moore’s Law-type curve of yield per unit price.
You’ll notice that I say elsewhere that we are in a VSH scenario. That’s because I find it hard to be sure which way things will eventuate. We’re at an inflection point, effectively in a race between technological take-off and rapidly-changing climate. The game is very much open.
Errata: VSF, degradation.
Apparently, China has been building a lot very energy efficient Coal power plants. Without these better coal powerplants, they would have had burn a lot more coal to get the same amount of electrical power.
Though China is digging deeper and deeper, which is higher energy cost of getting coal.
Atmospheric CO2 is rising at about +2.5 ppm a year. At that rate it will take168 years for CO2 to double from 420 to 840 ppm
The ACTUAL TIMING of CO2 x 2 IS A GUESS
The important number is how much a dooubling of CO2 plus various feedbacks will affect the global average temperature in 100 to 200 years.
No one knows
Guesses range from +0.5 to +5 degrees C.
The growth rate of CO2 does not affect the guesses of what CO2 does to the climate in the long run
The growth rate of CO2 only affects how fast the atmospheric CO2 level will double.
If Nut Zero has any effect on CO2 emissions, they might cause less than a +2.5 ppm increase of atmospheric CO2 every year. On the other hand, developing nations using more coal might increase the CO2 rise rate to +3 ppm a year.
I am certain the future climate will be warmer,
unless it is cooler … but I prefer warmer.
“June 30, 2024 at 9:30 AM
Atmospheric CO2 is rising at about +2.5 ppm a year. At that rate it will take168 years for CO2 to double from 420 to 840 ppm”
The key milestone is doubling of preindustrial, which is to 560 ppm, coming soon to an Earth near you, or not if we choose an alternate route.
The ANNUAL growth of atmospheric CO2 BEFORE THE 1960s WAS TOO SLOW TO BE RELEVANT.
The amount of CO2 in the air in 1850 is an educated guess/
The average temperature in 1850 is a completely worthless wild guess with little data outside Europe and the US, with especially poor coverage of the S.H.
Regardless, that is the milestone that is used by everyone.
The amount of CO2 on the air back then is measured in ice cores.
But I agree that the recent change in temp and co2 are better for comparing to models.
Who are “we”? China is now up to 33% of world-wide emissions.
1 – 1/3 = 2/3
I have an anecdote I would like to share. My local government posted an article in a news letter listing the money, yes money being invested to combat climate change and protect our citizens. I took the opportunity to ask one of the officials in a personal conversation if they were aware that CO2 circulates around the world. This individual was outraged that I would ask such a question because “we must show leadership and it starts here”.
That reminds me of this funny story.
Once upon a time, there was a a guy who stopped paying the bridge toll. He made it to the news. Freedom Fighters turned him into a hero. The guy became a celebrity on cable news.
Then everyone stopped paying their fare. The corporation that ran the bridge went bankrupt. To pay themselves, creditors sold the bridge for parts.
And that’s how cable news guys started to blame the gubmint for everything.
Thank you.
CO2 IR Spectrum is saturated. 0.5C is probably a high estimate.
560 ppm is going to be another non-event right up there with Al Gore’s predictions of ice free arctic by (insert year here).
Five Things Contrarians Need to Know before Going for “But the Arctic”:
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/five-things-understand-about-ice-free-arctic
Ken
We’ve been over this before. The CO2 part of the IR spectrum is only saturate close to the spot wavelength of 15 micrometres.
Band spreading causes atmospheric CO2 to absor*b between 13 and 17 micrometres. Most of the band is unsaturated and increasing concentration makes the band wider.
As a result there is a continuing correlation between increasing CO2 and increasing IF absor*btion.
‘Weve been over this before.’
Ayuh. You’re still wrong.
‘Band spreading causes atmospheric CO2 to absor*b between 13 and 17 micrometres. Most of the band is unsaturated and increasing concentration makes the band wider.’
What you’re suggesting is that CO2 will alter its absor8ption spectrum characteristics as its concentration increases.
Physical properties of CO2 (or any other molecule) aren’t likely to change in order to abso*b a wider bandwidth of IR.
EM,
“The CO2 part of the IR spectrum is only saturate close to the spot wavelength of 15 micrometres.”
Completely irrelevant. You seem to be talking about absorption spectra. Maybe you don’t realise that if matter absorbs energy, and rises in temperature, then if it hotter than its environment, it immediately radiates energy at wavelengths dependent on its temperature – and nothing else, if below excitation levels.
It doesnt what blocks IR – CO2, blankets, or tablets of gold – less energy reaches a thermometer, reducing its temperature. Do you disagree? If so, why?
You can refuse to say if you prefer.
Ken
“What youre suggesting is that CO2 will alter its absor8ption spectrum characteristics as its concentration increases. ”
It does exactly that. In a mixed atmosphere the surrounding molecules cause a GHG to absorb IR in a band either side of the spot wavelength. The higher the GHG concentration, the wider the band. For GHE saturation the signature is that it absorbs all of the upwelling radiation from the surface and reradiate half of it upwards.
You can see these effects on the outward longwave radiation spectrum. The spot wavelength for CO2 is wavenumber 675, at which the OLR is about half the SB emission. Saturated.
Either side of that, the band is not saturated and more than half the SB radiation ends up directly or indirectly reaches space.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DXshisOUQAAroN7.jpg
EM,
Ill just point out that during the night, the surface cools.
All, repeat all, of the radiation leaving the surface is lost to space. The temperature falls.
No GHE.
Swenson,
I disagree and here is why.
https://www.e-education.psu.edu/meteo300/node/683
You see a very small part of the light from the Sun is in the wavelengths that CO2 absorbs.
But a bigger chunk is absorbed by CO2 in the outgoing infrared from the surface.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outgoing_longwave_radiation
Making more energy reach the thermometer.
‘It does exactly that.’
Hitran doesn’t support that notion.
Here is Happer and Wijngaarden analysis:
https://andymaypetrophysicist.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/figure-1.png
Bumbling bobby,
You wrote –
“Making more energy reach the thermometer.” Is your ignorance greater than your gullibility or vice versa.
You are talking gibberish, trying to appear intelligent.
Unfortunately for you, increasing the amount of insulation between a heat source and a thermometer does not increase the energy reaching a thermometer. No magical GHE.
Get rid of the atmosphere entirely, and surface temperatures on the Moon reach in excess of 125 C. If you really believe that CO2 insulation has magical properties, and transmits more energy than it receives, you are simply insane.
Keep trying to deny reality. Keep refusing to describe the GHE. Nobody can complain about what you don’t say, can they? That only makes you look stupid, not smart.
Swenson,
“Making more energy reach the thermometer. Is your ignorance greater than your gullibility or vice versa.
You are talking gibberish, trying to appear intelligent.”
Your inability to understand does not make it gibberish.
‘Unfortunately for you, increasing the amount of insulation between a heat source and a thermometer does not increase the energy reaching a thermometer. No magical GHE.’
There is insulation by CO2 of the Suns rays, and there is insulation by CO on the infrared emitted by the Earth.
“Get rid of the atmosphere entirely, and surface temperatures on the Moon reach in excess of 125 C.”
What? The Moon already has no atmosphere.
“If you really believe that CO2 insulation has magical properties, and transmits more energy than it receives, you are simply insane.”
I have never stated that CO2 works by magic, you don’t understand it, so you think it’s magic, it is not, it works by the known laws of physics.
“Keep trying to deny reality. Keep refusing to describe the GHE. Nobody can complain about what you dont say, can they? That only makes you look stupid, not smart.”
I can’t teach a kindergartener Calculus, just like I can’t describe the GHE to you in a way that you would understand it.
But I can describe it in a way that a smart person would understand it.
“There is insulation by CO2 of the Suns rays, and there is insulation by CO on the infrared emitted by the Earth.”
Yes. The atmosphere. You are a fool – putting insulation between a heat source and a thermometer does not the thermometer hotter.
Ask the other children in your kindergarten. Keep refusing to describe the GHE – nobody can find fault with what you don’t say, can they?
Mike Flynn,
Those who build igloos do not care about making thermometers hotter. They make themselves warmer by living in them. You can choose to live on ice at the mercy of the elements if you so please. It is a free world.
Cheers.
Atmospheric CO2 has already increased from 280ppm to 420ppm. That’s an increase of 50%, and as you indicate it’s almost all happened since the 1960s. That would give us a maximum of 60 years based on the average rate over that time. However, the growth has until now been exponential. The time to yield a doubling, based on BAU, would therefore be rather less than 60 years.
I might also add that the symptoms of change in terms of extreme weather are already very apparent, surprising even the most pessimistic expectations for this level of increase.
All this presumes that tipping points in terms of carbon emissions, such as forest fires and soil degradation, are not crossed during the ensuing 60-or-fewer years.
EB,
I’ll just point out that during the night, the surface cools.
All, repeat all, of the radiation leaving the surface is lost to space. The temperature falls.
No GHE.
840 ppm can be deadly. Remember ocean pH levels.
“The majority of extinction events occur in the CO2 concentration range of 7001,100 ppmv.”
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022EF003336
I read somewhere that most plants on earth evolved in very high levels of CO2. I hope this is not a military secret, but I am told by a reliable source that submarines operate about 3,000 ppm and the sailors do just fine once they get used to it. Puts new meaning to term fresh air.
“Data collected on nine nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines indicate an average CO2 concentration of 3,500 ppm with a range of 0-10,600 ppm, and data collected on 10 nuclear-powered attack submarines indicate an average CO2 concentration of 4,100 ppm with a range of 300-11,300 ppm”
No extinction events noted.
Maybe next year?
“But RCPs” will never get old:
https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2020/02/09/but-rcps/
As for Junior, he got owned once again:
https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:vyrvsq3myrvh4io5auwkwy3r/post/3kv6hirf3hb2c
No peanut butter for you.
The whole meme was already tired in 2020, Kennui.
Please don’t make me sadz.
You are already sadz. Boring sadz.
No, my dear Kennui. You are. Besides being lazy and bitter.
Climateball could be fun, but you are too afraid to lose to make any effort. You’d rather have otters going down swinging. They’re all gone now.
So either you work on your recruitment techniques, or you RTFR.
Willard, please stop trolling.
You are an idiot.
Mike Flynn,
Nobody cares if this is the last day of the “nobody cares” theme of the month.
You used two sentences. In them there were two banned words.
Willard, please stop trolling.
You are an idiot.
Why are you babbling about “banned words”? If they appear, they obviously are not “banned”, are they? Maybe you should employ Elliott Blockhead’s “blocker” so you don’t have to see anything with which you disagree.
You’re playing dumb once again, Mike.
The I-word has been banned because Richard abused it.
The T-word has been banned because Graham abused it.
And you’re consistently using both.
Willard, please stop trolling.
You are an idiot.
Why are you babbling about “banned words”? If they appear, they obviously are not banned, are they? Maybe you should employ Elliott Blockheads “blocker” so you dont have to see anything with which you disagree.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/
High pressure is crossing the Great Australian Bight after a cold front swept over southeastern Australia this weekend. While high pressure is common after a cold front, this particular high pressure system will stall, as it becomes a blocking-high over Tasmania from Tuesday morning.
You can see the high pressure system stall over the Apple Isle during the week below, with the centre (marked with a red ‘H’) remaining virtually stationary for nearly 7 days.What weather will this high bring across Australia?
High pressure is often associated with clear skies and light winds. So, for most of Tasmania, as well as large parts of Victoria and southern NSW, this high will bring a run of sunny days, but cold frosty nights. Launceston is forecast to fall below zero degrees for the next 7 or 8 mornings in a row.
SOLAR MINIMUM UPDATE
At least 427 people have died over four days in just one city in Pakistan due to the lethal heatwaves scorching south Asia this summer.
The non-profit Edhi Foundation said it received 427 bodies in four days until Tuesday in Karachi, the countrys biggest city and financial centre.
https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/pakistan-karachi-heatwave-temperature-death-toll-b2569734.html
Don’t be too scared – they’re just brown, homeless people anyway.
It happens almost every year. Its not even news.
Troglodytes say the darnedest things:
https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-made-devastating-early-heat-in-india-and-pakistan-30-times-more-likely
No wonder they fall for crooks like teh Donald and incompetent back benchers like Pierre.
Something has changed.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cw555ny3q9xo
I think the analysis of carbon emissions and emission reduction should look at the long game. Eventually, the fossil fuels will be gone. What then?
I have a much bigger concern for fake climate experts such as Bill Weir and Bill Nye, and real experts such as Michael Mann who go on television to talk about what “we” can do to stop the “climate crisis”. If we means the USA, then what about the other 90% of emissions that originate from other countries? Assuming they actually know the facts, what are these people trying to sell?
At the risk of being labelled a doomster I think it’s already too late to stop climate change.
If you do the physics you find that the CO2 already released has committed us to 1.7C global warming by 2040.
Realistic (ie politically possible) emission scenarios predict doubling to 560ppm by the 2070s with 3C warming soon after.
In a world drifting to the Right and obsessed with short term growth these dates may even be optimistic.
Ent believes: “If you do the physics you find that the CO2 already released has committed us to 1.7C global warming by 2040.”
Well Ent, “do the physics”. Show us how CO2 can produce 1.7C warming. And, you can’t use the bogus CO2 equation because it ain’t science. (You won’t find it in any credible physics textbook.)
” I think the analysis of carbon emissions and emission reduction should look at the long game. Eventually, the fossil fuels will be gone. What then? ”
The fossil fuel lobby tell us that we can’t run a civilization without fossil fuels.
When the fossil fuels run out, civilization will therefore collapse.
“When the fossil fuels run out, civilization will therefore collapse.”
My crystal ball shows otherwise. I win. You lose.
Bad luck.
And this is why I insist that a transition is both required and inevitable even if global warming were not to exist. We are already at peak oil, with ERoEI approaching unity. The remaining oil will increasingly be required for industrial feed-stock, so burning it is insanity. Coal reserves are large enough to commit us to climate-driven collapse, but even without climate they will also be eaten through in logarithmic time.
Carrying on like this is insane. Fortunately, the energy transition is likely to come along all by itself, as renewables increasingly out-compete fossil fuels.
Elliott, if you are afraid fossil fuels will run out, then you need to be a fanatical advocate of nuclear.
Solar and wind are fine, except when it’s dark or the wind is not blowing.
Elliot, now you can impress all of your friends. Peak oil referred to pumping liquid crude oil out of the ground. That came and went. Fracking changed everything. There is also tar sands which is so thick it requires strip mining and local processing in order to pump it.
“I have a much bigger concern for fake climate experts such as Bill Weir and Bill Nye, and real experts such as Michael Mann who go on television to talk about what ‘we’ can do to stop the ‘climate crisis’. If we means the USA, then what about the other 90% of emissions that originate from other countries? Assuming they actually know the facts, what are these people trying to sell?”
Rhetorical questions follow assumptions like cats follow laser pointers.
Someone wrote “real experts such as Michael Mann”.
Is this the faker, fraud, scofflaw and deadbeat Michael Mann, or someone else?
As Richard Feynman said “Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.” Michael Mann refuses to describe the GHE. After all, he can’t be criticised for what he doesn’t say, can he? What a clever chap!
Why ask Michael Mann, who is not an atmospheric physicist, to describe the greenhouse effect when our resident atmospheric physicist has already done so multiple times?
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2015/06/what-causes-the-greenhouse-effect/
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/07/the-warm-earth-greenhouse-effect-or-atmospheric-pressure/
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2012/02/more-musings-from-the-greenhouse/
And has provided multiple lines of evidence for it…
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/04/direct-evidence-of-earths-greenhouse-effect/
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/05/imaging-the-greenhouse-effect-with-a-flir-i7-thermal-imager/
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/08/observational-evidence-of-the-greenhouse-effect-at-desert-rock-nevada/
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/08/suggested-backyard-experiment-to-measure-the-greenhouse-effect-of-more-carbon-dioxide/
And has a message aimed at people like you, Swenson.
“Please stop the ‘no greenhouse effect’ stuff. Its making us skeptics look bad.”
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/04/skeptical-arguments-that-dont-hold-water/
Stop making AGW skeptics look bad, Swenson.
barry,
Don’t be stupid. Your links do not contain descriptions of the “greenhouse effect”. For example, your first link contains “The greenhouse effect usually refers to a net increase in the Earths surface temperature”. Saying the greenhouse effect usually refers to an increase in the Earth’s surface temperature? Really?
The multiple lines of evidence obviously don’t mention four and a half billion years of planetary cooling, or even cooling each night.
You write –
“Stop making AGW skeptics look bad, Swenson.” Who are these “AGW skeptics” to whom you refer?
Anybody with half a brain accepts that man-made heat affects thermometers. If there’s enough, that results in the temperature observations referred to as “Anthropogenic Global Warming”, wouldn’t you agree?
You don’t seem at all curious why that faker, fraud, scofflaw and deadbeat Michael Mann steadfastly refuses to describe the GHE. Maybe you also believe that science is the belief in the ignorance of experts?
Carry on with your sly attempts to appeal to authority. Still no GHE description, is there?
Mike Flynn,
Start with the first link. It contains what you are looking for.
Cheers.
“Start with the first link. It contains what you are looking for.”
Don’t be an idiot, Willard. I’m not looking for anything!
I just wonder why you all refuse to describe this mythical GHE, refuse to even say what you think it does, but claim it exists anyway.
None of the links contains a description of the mythical GHE. I assume that’s because the GHE is an article of faith, rather than fact.
I just keep pointing out that nobody has ever provided a valid description of the GHE. I don’t believe anybody can, any more than a Christian can describe God. Belief in the GHE is just that – belief. Thomas Jefferson said “But it does me no injury for my neighbour to say there are twenty gods, or no god. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg.” Unfortunately, GHE worshippers believe they have the right to pick everybody’s pockets, and break their legs if they disagree.
There is no GHE in any scientific sense. Just cult belief.
Barry, you lost me with laser pointer. I do have a friend who refers to any difficult situation as trying to herd cats.
> Im not looking for anything!
Mike Flynn does not always asks for a description of the greenhouse effect, but when he does he’s not looking for it.
Wonky Wee Willy,
You wrote –
“Mike Flynn does not always asks for a description of the greenhouse effect, but when he does hes not looking for it.”
You really are not the sharpest knife in the drawer, are you?
[snigger]
I think we can agree that any problem where all the participants sit in a circle and point to the person to their left, saying, “I won’t act until he does,” is fated never to be addressed. The average American or European contributes, and has historically contributed, tens of times to the problem what the average African or South Asian has. Also four times what the average Chinese does. The only solution that remotely address the injustice, and therefore the only solution that is remotely likely to meet with compliance, is for those who personally contribute the most to the problem to act with the greatest urgency.
EB,
I think we can all agree that the GHE is a myth. You agree, I believe.
Mike Flynn,
I believe we agree that physical objects are conceptually imported into the situation as convenient intermediaries–not by definition in terms of experience, but simply as irreducible posits comparable, epistemologically, to the gods of Homer.
That is the wrong example. The current situation is everybody sitting in a room and saying “you started it, so you fix it, and please pay us for the damage you have done”.
Europe and the USA are already reducing from peak levels. The combined population of China and India is almost 10 times the USA. Those countries are growing. India has one of the fastest growth rates in the world, and they want more.
Tim S,
The majority rules? Democracy?
What’s wrong with that?
Dr Spencer
RCP8.5 was a worst case scenario.
The purpose of a worst case scenario is to forecast the outcome if nothing is done about the problem.
RCP8.5 forecast the outcome if the Right and the fossil fuel lobby prevailed – Unlimited fossil fuel burn, unlimited emissions and no renewables.
Fortunately serious attempts were made to limit emissions and RCP8.5 was avoided.
In the UK Report 19 predicted that left alone Covid 19 would kill 500,000 people. Very simple epidemiology. Covid-19 had a 1% death rate and would infect 70% of the population. If nothing was done total deaths would be 70 million 0.7 0.01 =490,000.
In practice lockdowns, masks and vaccination reduced the total UK deaths to 140,000, about 30% of the worst case.
For the US the worst case was 340 million.70.01=2.4 million and the actual total deaths was 1.1million or 46% of the worst case.
Shows what happens when you listen to the business lobbies and a certain D. Trump rather than the scientists. It cost you an extra 320,000 deaths.
Returning to climate, SSP5-8.55 is what would be happening if nothing was done. SSP2-4.5 is what we have, by considerable effort, achieved so far by doing something about the problem.
Fortunately serious attempts were made to limit emissions and RCP8.5 was avoided.
Bull hockey.
See Mauna Loa data. Emissions keep going up exponentially. China in particular but USA and emerging economies all demand more energy.
Then we’re VSF.
EM,
One minor problem might be that the concentration of any gas at all in the atmosphere has no warming effect on the temperature of the surface.
Obviously, anything which blocks radiation from the Sun will reduce the temperature of the surface. Examples would be clouds, roofs, CO2, H20, particulate matter and so on.
The atmosphere as a whole results in about 30% of the Sun’s radiation reaching the surface, but of course some GHE cultists believe that reducing the amount of radiation reaching a thermometer makes it hotter!
Silly, arent they? One GHE cultist (you) said “The GHE is a stack of blankets.”
Sun blankets, possibly? First find on the internet –
“Sun blankets
A good sun blanket is the ideal companion for the beach, the outdoor pool or an afternoon in the park. It is made of UV-protective material and blocks UV-rays with UPF 50+ / 98 percent UV-protection.”
Did you mean electrically heated blankets, perhaps? No GHE. it’s a myth – no matter how many people “believe”.
What we should hope to see at this point is exactly what Dr. Roy claims – i.e. that action on emissions should by now see CO2 concentrations starting to track below the worst case. I’ll defer to the experts on whether this is really happening, but I can only observe that the Keeling Curve doesn’t look to me as though it has passed a point of inflection. I agree that it looks more like a VSF scenario.
Ent is a “master” at fudging numbers.
He’s also the one that claims passenger jets fly backward.
He’ll do anything to support his false beliefs.
I’ve been trying to post this piece about the disasters in Switzerland but I can’t get it past the filters. In case anyone is labouring under the misconpception that they “failed to materialise”. Here’s a link instead:
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7213198983664435200/
EB,
Yes, I agree that “disasters in Switzerland” is overhyped nonsense.
Thanks for pointing it out.
A combination of climate change and mismanagement of water is driving Sicily to desertification:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/01/drought-leaves-sicilian-farmers-facing-uncertain-future
They’ve been told for years that the downwelling Hadley circulation currently dessicating the Sahara is due to move Nortwards over Southern Europe. Does nobody in government listen to warnings?
EM,
“Does nobody in government listen to warnings”
Warning! Warning! The sky is falling!
Should the government listen?
I increasingly suspect not. Everything about this crisis has the smell of opportunities wasted and warnings ignored.
“Everything about this crisis has the smell . .. “.
Sure does – smells of delusion, gullibility, and ignorance.
Climate crisis produces more wonky vegetables in the Netherlands:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/29/its-not-beautiful-but-you-can-still-eat-it-climate-change-leads-to-more-wonky-vegetables-in-netherlands
One obvious way to fight the current polycrisis would be to prevent waste, and route more of this “imperfect” produce into the human food chain.
“One obvious way to fight the current polycrisis would be to prevent waste, and route more of this “imperfect” produce into the human food chain.”
No polycrisis. No GHE.
You are an idiot .
Elliott, finding a bunch of links to support your false beliefs ain’t science. I could waste time finding an equal amount of links “proving” Earth is cold.
Here’s just one, from earlier this year:
https://www.npr.org/2024/01/13/1224616521/extreme-weather-us-blizzard-flooding-storms
E. Bighead:
Do you actually believe the climate fiction routinely spewed by the Grauniad? And yet you claim to be a scientist? What are your other “go-to” sources? the NY Times? the Washington Post? Bwah-hah-hah. You have severely shot yourself in the foot.
Meanwhile, up here above the Arctic Circle, ice is everywhere, so haulouts are great fun. Too many polar bears, though (our mortal enemies).
> ice is everywhere
Click on the “Arctic Sea Ice Extent” graph, GW:
https://tinyurl.com/arcticseaicenews/
Tell me where you see the blue line.
The Great Walrus
” Meanwhile, up here above the Arctic Circle, ice is everywhere… ”
Do you really think you impress anyone here with such a blah blah?
I was told that in all deserts, sand is everywhere as well. Imagine!
Well, Greatest Walrus of all times: if ice was in your corner everywhere, as you proudly tell us: would then these pictures below not look a bit different?
1. Arctic sea ice – absolute values, 180 days
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zduPq2XEOZgj6X3CLezp2OZvEPgVAhac/view
2. Arctic sea ice – anomaly values – years
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1QBlh325tHF-4NRlWsHf_6sgskO_ipyse/view
No? Would not the 2024 black line be above the 1981-2010 grey line all the time?
The reality is that even if the Arctic sea ice still keeps above its 5 year mean this year, it is 1 M km^2 below the 30 year mean.
*
And, by the way: why are you guys always storytelling about the Arctic, but keep so pretty silent these days about the Antarctic?
3. Antarctic sea ice – absolute values, 180 days
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Vapu5ep4spJG6t-pRtlS6ZXtjOFpv0X9/view
4. Antarctic sea ice – anomaly values – years
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1PdqOctb7zaMgvdMdX2sId1g_o7U13mM-/view
*
Thus in the sum, global sea ice is actually 3 M km^2 below mean.
So what!
Bindi, the funny thing is, your cult believes ice can boil water.
You need to be providing photos of the Arctic Ocean boiling.
(Do you have any idea how confused you are?)
Clint R zombie
Please wake me up when you’ll finally have become able to write a first, somewhat intelligent-sounding post lacking all these dumb ‘cult’, ‘ice can boil water’, ‘ball-on-a-string’, ‘astrologers’ and the like.
(Do you have any idea how incredibly boring you are?)
Sorry Bindi, but science can be boring for some.
Got a viable model of “orbiting without spin”, yet?
First Mr. Asshat. Then Graham D. Warner. And now Puffman.
Will Binny resist?
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Bindi, when you wake up, here’s some reality for you: If you don’t understand the basics, then you can’t understand anything beyond the basics.
It’s like “baby steps”….
Puffman has to poke a little more, which goes on to show that Binny is doing great!
Oh sh*t.
Another step on the road to a Trump dictatorship.
True.
Yes, but you currently have King Biden. Who can have Trump hanged, drawn and quartered at any point in the next six months and suffer no consequences whatsoever. So get lobbying.
At least you agree that you are both ignorant and gullible.
That’s a start.
I have a prediction. Biden will resign before the convention, Kamala Harris becomes president and there is a brokered convention just like the smoke filled room era not that long ago.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoke-filled_room
I can see something like that happening. At the moment the Queen is apparently pushing him to stay the course, but he’s already at a stage where he could be in the middle of the street asking where his front door is at 3am six weeks from now. I’ve seen it happen. The risk to the country is immense. Something has to change.
When did upholding democracy mean silencing everyone who doesn’t agree?
March 23 1933, the Enabling Act becomes law in Germany, giving the chief executive power enforce his own laws without checks and balances. The passing of the Act marked the formal transition from democratic republic to totalitarian dictatorship. 6 months later, it was a 1 party state.
Kennui is all for it, as long as it means he pays less taxes. Not that he pays much. His rent is tax efficient.
Since the hacks on the Supreme Court ruled that Biden can do so without consequences.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cw0y5228v1yt
Hurricane Beryl, a Category 4, is already in the Caribbean Sea.
Sun triggers Beryl
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHbnXZE0Vdw
Yes.
Why does UV radiation shorter and 240 nm and ozone production in the upper stratosphere fall.
Excess kinetic energy warms the stratosphere as molecular oxygen decays and collides with other molecules. This conversion of UV light into kinetic energy warms the stratosphere.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_AMJ_EQ_2024.png
SOLAR MINIMUM UPDATE
Oh Canada, you warmed by 2 degrees
True human cause, not the sun’s command…
https://bsky.app/profile/simondonner.bsky.social/post/3kwailjzlse2g
Every degree of warming means we can grow food 1 degree further north.
Warming is good for Canada.
Kennui still fails to RTFR:
https://agriculture.canada.ca/en/environment/climate-change/climate-change-impacts-agriculture
And after 2C comes 3C, then 4C, etc.
It’s Net Zero or Bust.
Don’t be stupid, Willard.
There is no magic GHE which has miraculously emerged at some unspecified time to reverse four and a half billion years of planetary cooling!
Why do you refuse to even describe this wondrous planet heating “effect”? Is it a deeply hidden cult secret, perhaps?
[laughing at donkey]
Mike Flynn,
You’re using a third forbidden word, the S-word.
Tsk-tsk.
It’s “#8204;” with an amperstand before, right?
Dont be stupid, Willard.
There is no magic GHE which has miraculously emerged at some unspecified time to reverse four and a half billion years of planetary cooling!
Why do you refuse to even describe this wondrous planet heating “effect”? Is it a deeply hidden cult secret, perhaps?
[laughing at donkey]
You copy-pasted your comment, Mike.
You had to enter your &-#8204; on your tablet, yet you forgot to enter the missing symbol.
Why is that?
I’m for ‘bust’
Net zero means nothing but a return to serfdom and slavery.
Kennui will bust soon enough.
“You copy-pasted your comment, Mike.
You had to enter your &-#8204; on your tablet, yet you forgot to enter the missing symbol.
Why is that?”
What are you babbling about, fool?
Given up on promoting a mythical GHE, have you?
Willard, please stop trolling.
Playing dumb again, Mike?
You’re still using your HTML trick to spam the T-word.
Willard, please stop trolling.
The way things are going that’s probably bust.
Congratulations to the new member of the international club of monarchies. Your new King has about half a year to have the Antichrist killed as an “official act”, thus avoiding all consequences. I suggest you get lobbying.
Elliott, please stop trolling.
It was another chilly morning for parts of the country, with temperatures dropping below 0℃ in parts of Tasmania, Victoria and New South Wales. ❄️
A large slow-moving high pressure system in the Great Australian Bight will strengthen and move near Tasmania on Tuesday and will remain stationary until the weekend.
This high pressure system will bring frost and fog patches and will cause temperatures to drop 2-6℃ below average in many states and territories this week.
For the latest forecasts and for more information visit http://www.bom.gov.au or the BOM Weather app.
https://i.ibb.co/0ZPkhkD/449048175-881477650688650-6681023855651114753-n.jpg
Bin Wigly on 97% agrees
https://youtu.be/AGYtP7r8_pc?t=2434
https://youtu.be/1kKUye23KBQ
Whether the UAH 6.0 LT anomaly for June will be higher, the same, or lower than the preceding one, I can predict that poster Richard M will write
“As I predicted… ”
in any case, followed by a piece of text that perfectly matches the alternative that has occurred.
Thanks, and I endorse your opinion of the Honest Broker.
It might be more fair to say that CO2 accumulation hasn’t matched up with the scare stories. We should not fall into the semantic trap, set by the propagandists, of referring to the atmospheric content as emissions – implying that all is caused by human industrial processes.
Anthropogenic ’emission’ of CO2 has always been an estimate, based on estimated consumtion of petroleum and coal fuel, and the actual sources of atmospheric carbon dioxide has always been in contention.
CO2 accumulation could never match up to the propaganda – it is based on a false premis.
An aside: if you feel like crowing, you might revisit the status of the Colorado River basin. IMO, at least a pat-on-back is in order, for your sane analysis in the face of the insanity of the ‘permadrought’ hysterics.
We could easily be on our way to fill both lakes Mead and Powell by next spring.
After all, mankind is just relocating carbon from where Nature stored it, back into the atmosphere from whence it came.
In the past, when carbon levels in the atmosphere were obviously higher than now, the planet still managed to cool to its present temperature, showing that higher atmospheric carbon levels don’t result in warming at all!
SOLAR MINIMUM UPDATE
“Over the past year, weve experienced the hottest year on record, the hottest ocean temperatures on record and a seemingly endless string of heat waves, droughts, floods, wildfires and storms, said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. Now we are finding that atmospheric CO2 levels are increasing faster than ever. We must recognize that these are clear signals of the damage carbon dioxide pollution is doing to the climate system, and take rapid action to cut fossil fuel use as quickly as we can.”
Ralph Keeling, director of the Scripps CO2 program that manages the institutions 56-year-old measurement series, noted that year-to-year increase recorded in March 2024 was the highest for both Scripps and NOAA in Keeling Curve history.
“Not only is CO2 now at the highest level in millions of years, it is also rising faster than ever,” said Keeling. “Each year achieves a higher maximum due to fossil-fuel burning, which releases pollution in the form of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Fossil fuel pollution just keeps building up, much like trash in a landfill.”
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/during-year-of-extremes-carbon-dioxide-levels-surge-faster-than-ever
Good to know, but why I dont know.
I wonder if Spinrad (Bachelor of Arts) could tell us how CO2 can warm the surface?
Don’t hold your breath….
Sample of idiotic GHE cult thinking in link –
“Like other greenhouse gases, CO2 acts like a blanket in the atmosphere, preventing heat radiating off of the planets surface from escaping into space.”
Complete nonsense, of course. Nothing at all has stopped the planet cooling.
Each night, the surface cools, making a mockery of the NOAA idiocy. Their belief in magic is not supported by reality.
Mike Flynn uses his &-#8204; trick again to inject the I-word.
No honor.
Oh dear, Willard is showing his desperation.
Refuses to describe the GHE, won’t or can’t say why, carries on like a fanatical GHE cultist.
What a donkey!
Willard, please stop trolling.
Mike Flynn uses his &-#8204; trick again to inject the T-word.
No honor.
Oh dear, Willard is showing his desperation.
Refuses to describe the GHE, won’t or can’t say why, carries on like a fanatical GHE cultist.
Next thing, he’ll go blubbering to his big brother Roy, demanding that he beat me up!
What a donkey!
Willard, please stop trolling.
Next thing, Mike Flynn uses his &-#8204; trick again to inject the T-word.
No honor.
Oh dear, Willard is showing his desperation.
Refuses to describe the GHE, wont or cant say why, carries on like a fanatical GHE cultist.
Next thing, hell go blubbering to his big brother Roy, demanding that he beat me up!
What a donkey! Can’t even come up with a good ad-hom – how inept is that?
Willard, please stop trolling.
Mike Flynn goes for Step 1 – Pure Denial.
Puffman goes for Step 2 – Sammich Request.
Who will go for Step 3 first?
It’s a bit early for Mr. Asshat.
Willard is an idiot – believing in a GHE, and refusing to say why!
Willard, please stop trolling.
Mike Flynn keeps using an HTML trick to write the I-word.
Just click CTRL-U to see which one.
Willard is an idiot believing in a GHE, and refusing to say why!
Willard, please stop trolling. .
Mike Flynn uses the “” trick again to insert a forbidden word.
He also chickens out at calling Roy the same.
Roy believes in the greenhouse effect.
“He also chickens out at calling Roy the same.
Roy believes in the greenhouse effect.”
Ooooooh! I’m scared, so scared! Willard is reading minds again!
Willard is an idiot believing in a GHE, and refusing to say why!
Willard, please stop trolling.
Go ahead, Mike –
Drop the I-word on Roy.
“Go ahead, Mike
Drop the I-word on Roy.”
What are you talking about, idiot?
Willard, please stop trolling.
You’re playing dumb again, Mike.
Roy believes in the greenhouse effect.
When will you use the I-word against him?
Whacky Wee Willy,
“Youre playing dumb again, Mike.
Roy believes in the greenhouse effect.
When will you use the I-word against him?”
Oooooooh! Still refusing to describe the GHE? Trying to blame Dr Spencer for your ineptitude?
Keep trying, dummy.
Swenson,
Apparently you didn’t make it past the 2nd paragraph in the first link. I’ve quoted the relevant parts below. And you can check the other links yourself if you have the stamina to read them in full.
“The temperature of any object represents a balance between energy gained and energy lost by that object. Temperature is an energy balance issue… if more energy is gained than lost, temperature goes up. If more energy is lost than gained, temperature goes down. Understanding this is fundamental to understanding weather and climate, as well as the following discussion.
The atmosphere contains ‘greenhouse gases’ (GHGs), which means gases which are particularly strong absorbers and emitters of IR radiation. In the Earth’s atmosphere, the main GHGs are water vapor and carbon dioxide. Absorp.tion and emission of IR go together because anything that is a good absorber of IR is also a good emitter, although in general the rates of absorp.tion and emission are not the same since absorp.tion is mostly temperature-independent but emission is very temperature-dependent…
As the Earth’s surface absorbs sunlight it warms up. As it warms up, it emits more and more IR energy, limiting its temperature rise (remember ‘energy balance’?).
If the atmosphere could not intercept (absorb) any of that surface-emitted IR energy, the energy would readily escape to outer space and as a result it has been estimated that the Earth’s average surface temperature would be only about 0 deg. F…
The IR absorp.tion coefficients at various wavelengths, temperature, and pressures have been measured for water vapor, CO2, etc., in laboratories and published for decades.
This absorp.tion means the atmosphere also EMITS IR energy, both upward and downward. And it is that DOWNWARD flow of IR energy (sometimes called ‘back radiation’) which is necessary for net warming of the surface from the greenhouse effect.”
Roy continues”
“(Technical diversion: This is where the Sky Dragon Slayers get tripped up. They claim the colder atmosphere cannot emit IR downward toward a warmer surface below, when in fact all the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics would require is that the NET flow of energy in all forms be from higher temperature to lower temperature. This is still true in my discussion.)…
Again, temperature is the result of energy gain AND energy loss. If you reduce the rate of energy loss, temperature will rise… even if the energy input is the same. Extremely high temperatures can even be created with very little energy input… even from a tiny battery… if you can reduce the rate of energy loss to near zero…
Analogous to insulation in a heated home, greenhouse gases reduce the net rate of infrared energy transfer from the surface and lower atmosphere to outer space, causing the surface and lower atmosphere to be warmer, and the upper atmosphere to be colder, than if greenhouse gases did not exist.”
Do you see any flaws in Roy’s description of the GHE, Swenson?
barry,
What description?
“Analogous to insulation in a heated home, greenhouse gases reduce the net rate of infrared energy transfer from the surface and lower atmosphere to outer space . . .”.
Looks like an irrelevant analogy about something not supported by fact, to me. The surface cools at night, and the planet has cooled in spite of four and a half billion years of constant sunlight. No heating at all.
Insulation heats nothing. As a matter of fact, insulation is generally used to keep things cold! Refrigerator and freezers use insulation for this purpose.
I can’t see where anybody at all has described the GHE in any scientific way, presumably because either the GHE is a myth, or its worshippers are simply refusing to divulge the description on religious grounds – as you apparently do.
Maybe you have found a description but are refusing to divulge it, for reasons you don’t want to disclose. Is that it?
The whole “net flow” issue scrambles their brains.
Elliott Bignell, in his usual dimwitted fashion, wrote –
“The whole “net flow” issue scrambles their brains.”, which is completely meaningless.
Like many fanatical GHE cultists who refuse to accept that the Earth is cooler than it was four and a half billion years ago, he burbles about “brain scrambling”!
As far as I am aware, Dr Spencer does not deny that the Earth has cooled, showing that it has emitted more energy than it received, or that the measured net loss of energy from the planet is of the order of 44 tW.
I don’t believe Dr Spencer considers his brain particularly scrambled, and the efforts by the idiotic Bignell and others to use sly appeals to his authority to bolster their refusal to describe the “greenhouse effect” is just pathetic.
Facts remain facts, whether or not people believe they are. The GHE is speculation, and its present adherents are so unsure of themselves that they refuse to describe it, throwing that responsibility onto others!
A pack of fools. There is no GHE.
I’ve described the GHE many times just as Roy has, as quoted above. It’s not my problem if you avoid dealing with the substance of the description in favour of the analogy. That just exposes your intellectual decrepitude.
“The whole ‘net flow’ issue scrambles their brains.”
Yup, along with “back radiation,” which our resident atmospheric physicist has no problem with.
“Ive described the GHE many times just as Roy has, as quoted above”
I cannot see a description at all. You obviously are having hallucinations.
Carry on.
“Yup, along with “back radiation,” which our resident atmospheric physicist has no problem with.”
Is this “back radiation” part of the GHE description which you refuse to divulge? Can’t say? Won’t say?
You are not implying that the Earth is getting hotter, are you? Due to some “back radiation” which was not present for four and a half billion years? That would just be silly, wouldn’t it?
I don’t blame you for refusing to describe a mythical effect which denies reality. A wise move.
Carry on refusing.
My posts have been shuffled downthread. I was replying to this conversation:
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2024/06/global-co2-emissions-are-tracking-well-below-the-climate-scenarios-used-to-scare-people/#comment-1676627
barry, are you back again to prove how incompetent you are?
The fact that you have to hide behind Dr. Spencer reveals how immature you are. Dr. Spencer has called himself a “Lukewarmer”. Are you now a Lukewarmer? If so, then you need to be attacking the empty-headed alarmists here, rather than real Skeptics.
Grow up and get your facts right, child.
A tiny town located on Tasmanias Central Plateau just registered Australia’s first -10C of the year as southern Australia starts to feel the icy chill of a unusually strong mid-winter high pressure system.
Hurricane Beryl is moving rapidly westward and will reach the Gulf of Mexico over the Yucatan.
https://i.ibb.co/x15D3y3/goes16-ir-02-L-202407020625.gif