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As the result of complaints I’m getting regarding certain commenters here who can’t make a point without insulting others, I’ve been forced to read through hundreds of comments. I will probably be implementing one or more changes regarding commenting. More on that later…
I’m also seeing some recurring science talking points that are “incorrect” (as incorrect as can be in the realm of science). I’ve gotten where I’ll let bad science be expressed here if it’s done respectfully, and then let others attempt to correct it. But since not everyone can remember what I’ve blogged on in years past (even I can’t remember some of it), I thought it might be good to review some highlights. It might reduce confusion from some of our newer visitors about what *I* understand and promote from the science, rather than letting my allowing of opinions being expressed here being interpreted as some sort of endorsement of others’ ideas.
Yes, the Greenhouse Effect is like a Real Greenhouse
Most objections to using the greenhouse analogy is that the atmosphere does not have a “roof” preventing convective heat loss like a greenhouse does. But those who claim this don’t realize that the greenhouse effect (GHE) is defined with no convective heat transport. The GHE is like a real greenhouse with a perfect roof. The original paper on this is Manabe & Strickler (1964), where they calculated the average surface temperature in pure radiative equilibrium (the surface and each atmospheric layer achieving a temperature where rates of absorbed and emitted radiation are equal– no convection) was about 70 deg. C warmer than what is actually observed. The weaker “33 deg. C” effect you often see attributed to the GHE is actually the sum of [GHE warming + convective cooling]. It is NOT the extra warming from the GHE alone. So, yes, Virginia, Earth’s greenhouse effect is like a real greenhouse (even more so, because its “roof” is perfect, whereas a real greenhouse roof does lose some heat through conduction of heat through the roof and then convective air currents cooling the roof).
No, the Saturation Effect of Increasing CO2 on Global Temperatures is Not Being Ignored in Global Warming Projections
As CO2 increases in the atmosphere, the effect it has on the loss of IR energy to outer space becomes progressively less, producing a saturation effect. But this is true in all climate models as well, including the ones that produce unrealistic (5 deg. C or more) of warming from a doubling of atmospheric CO2. Thus, invoking the “saturation effect” as a magical talisman to refute CO2-induced warming will not work.
In fact, it is not possible for a planetary atmosphere to become totally opaque to IR radiation, because it would have to be fully, 100% saturated across all pressure-broadening affected wavelengths and through the entire depth of the atmosphere. Even Venus, with ~200,000 times as much CO2 as Earth’s atmosphere, is not “saturated” regarding the absorption of IR radiation.
The saturation talking point seems to have ramped up since publication of the recent theoretical line-by-line computations by my friend Will Happer & his co-author last year. But their calculations result in the same amount of radiative forcing from 2XCO2 as others have computed, and (again) are already included in even the most strongly warming climate models out there. Happer’s calculations might be the most complete and accurate to date (I don’t know), but their results do not change what is already in climate models in any significant way.
Yes, the Cold Atmosphere can Keep the Surface Warmer than if the GHE Did Not Exist
Just like adding insulation to the walls in your house in winter can increase the temperature inside (for the same amount of energy input from a furnace), the “cold” atmosphere helps keep the Earth’s surface warmer than if the radiative insulation it provides did not exist. As I’ve stated before, just take a $50 handheld IR thermometer and point it upward in a clear sky, and see how the indicated temperature warms as you point the thermometer obliquely, away from the zenith. That is the GHE acting on the thermopile within the thermometer, raising its temperature because more IR radiation from the sky occurs from the oblique angle than from pointing it straight up…. even though the atmosphere up there is colder than the interior of the thermometer.
A recent experiment posted at Watts Up With That shows how a cooler object can make a warm object even warmer. Over 10 years ago I used a different experimental setup to demonstrate the same thing.
Now, regarding commenting here… To begin with, I think I will spend a couple of hours computing how many of the frequent commenters’ comments here include insults. Would everyone like to see those statistics? Should we consider an award for the person who has the highest percentage of insults?
As you can tell, Dr. Roy is grumpy this morning.
Now, get off my lawn.
UPDATE: I’m going to start limiting comments to 10 per person per day. Also, at least 50% of some commenters’ comments are just insults or other negative noise with no useful input. Start policing your own behavior because in a week or so I might start posting Insult Scores and banning folks. Others visiting this blog don’t want to wade through all of your negativity to find useful insights. Grumble, grumble…
This is my first comment here after many years.
Much respect, Dr. Roy Spencer.
But also, let’s watch from space to test our understanding of the “greenhouse effect” in terms of the incremental radiative absorbing power of CO2 and other non-condensing GHGs. This time-lapse video is composed of visualizations of the “CO2 Longwave IR” Band 16 radiance data from the GOES East geostationary satellite.
Clouds and motion. Dynamic self-regulation. A huge array of highly active and highly variable emitter elements.
Please read the full text description on Youtube.
https://youtu.be/Yarzo13_TSE
Thank you.
David: Yes, there are many natural processes affecting IR flow. And one could create an animation from one of those climate models that produces huge amounts of warming, and it would look very much like this GOES animation. I’m not disagreeing with you, as I believe the climate system can change all by itself… it’s nonlinear and it needs no forcing to change. -Roy
Dr. Spencer,
Can’t wait to read Manabe and Strickler, 1964. So what you are saying is the GHE effect is even greater than 60F because the 60F is a combination of convective cooling of the surface plus IR warming? And, so you are saying that 0.04% of our thin atmosphere causes more than 60F heating?
Or is it 325K-70K + 33K? So there’d be 33K of IR warming from 0.04% of the thin atmosphere?
Dr. Spencer,
I don’t know if you’ll answer this question or not or if it is too obvious and I should be able to figure it out for myself. I understand the Greenhouse Gas Theory. Incoming shortwave radiation from the Sun at the top of the atmosphere is balanced by outgoing longwave radiation and the energy difference is the energy absorbed by the Earth. The Earth heats the atmosphere by LW radiation. The LW radiation is determined by Earth’s Black Body temperature according to Planck’s equation. The LW (IR) radiation is absorbed mostly by water and CO2, 90% water. This atmospheric energy absorption is what causes the 33K warming above the 255K Plank temperature. My question: Why is there no component of conduction and convection that warms the other 99% of gases in the atmosphere?
Stephen
“Why is there no component of conduction and convection that warms the other 99% of gases in the atmosphere?”
Because energy or heat can not leave the atmosphere, no conduction or convection above the TOA.
SPA, convection and conduction can and certainly do disperse energy within the climate system, but since there is no significant convection or conduction at the interface with space there is no other way for energy to escape the climate system than by radiation.
Yes there are lots of good arguments for a GHE. The question really is have we considered all of them like say for common air?
We see in the Seim and Olson experiment not a test as to whether gaseous environments do or do not produce a GHE; what we see is if one has been produced there was no material difference between the GHE produced by common air and pure CO2 and it wasn’t even at all remotely close to what modtran says on the matter.
Roy talks of the ”perfect” roof which certainly adds mystery to the discussion. But is there some reason we couldn’t create a vacuum chamber to put the Seim and Olson experiment in to measure the results? Seems like a no brainer.
Roy obviously understands a lot of these uncertainties which is a lot more than I can say about a lot of posters in this blog.
There are other issues like what is the real mean emissivity of the system within the range of global temperatures. Quite honestly I have seen very little regarding vetting these assumptions. It’s not at all difficult to reason why. It doesn’t advance the desired narrative.
IMHO, that’s merely a Class A reflection of the rampant corruption in the system. I have seen multiple egregious examples of this before where the people in charge had an entirely different agenda than protecting the public and/or ownership interest.
Brings to mind this missive:
”We have 25 years or so invested in the work. Why should I make the data available to you, when your aim is to try and find something wrong with it?” Phil Jones, Director of Climate Research Unit, UEA, UK.
Better than actually educating the public its far better to treat the public like a mushroom farm, keep it in the dark, and feed it manure.
Just thought I would take top place again.
p.s. Grumpy Dr Roy is correct.
–Abstract
It is experimentally shown that the thermal radiation from a transparent, colder solid has the capacity to influence a solid warmer than it to become even warmer, under the right circumstances. This dispels the critique of the greenhouse effect that, as heat only flows from hot to cold, the effect is thermodynamically impossible. Even so, significant portions of the theory of the greenhouse effect remain experimentally unproven, signaling caution rather than uncritical acceptance of the theory.–
from link given in post:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/07/31/the-effect-of-a-colder-solids-thermal-radiation-on-a-warmer-solid-exposed-to-sunlight/
And:
Conclusion
There are several key differences between the experiment performed here and the theorized radiative greenhouse effect, such that this experiment does not serve as verification of the latter.
The hotbox is heavily insulated and enclosed to suppress convective heat loss. By contrast, the majority of the heat loss by the Earths surface is due to convective loss to the air.
The temperature ranges are different, with the Earths surface being around 15C and the air ranging from 15C to -55C with increasing altitude, contrasted with 100C for the black bottom and 30-70C for the glass.
The colder object is a solid plate of glass as opposed to a column of atmospheric air, i.e. a large volume of gas.
The warmer object is a uniform pitch-black plate, as distinct from the Earths surface with its varied terrain, soil, plant, foliage, ice, snow, water, etc.
The greenhouse effect is due to the air becoming more absorbent of and emissive of thermal radiation at the same temperature, while the experimental result was due to the colder object retaining the same emissive properties yet becoming hotter.
The observed time duration was minimal and no conclusions can be drawn about the total magnitude of the effect or what effects it may have in the long run.
I would say, US govt [via NASA} has the job to explore space- lots and constant support US public.
But it’s not US govt job to control global climate. Though one could say, they aren’t having any effect upon global climate- but trillions dollars of money has been spent “related” to the idea.
I still go with this (from Ron Clutz):
“Another way to put the issue.
The CO2 hysteria is founded on a false picture of heat flows within the climate system. There are 3 ways that [energy] passes from the surface to space.
1) A small amount of the radiation leaves directly, because all gases in our air are transparent to IR of 10-14 microns (sometimes called the “atmospheric window.” This pathway moves at the speed of light, so no delay of cooling occurs.
2) Some radiation is absorbed and re-emitted by IR active gases up to the tropopause. Calculations of the free mean path for CO2 show that energy passes from surface to tropopause in less than 5 milliseconds. This is almost speed of light, so delay is negligible..
3) The bulk gases of the atmosphere, O2 and N2, are warmed by conduction and convection from the surface. They also gain energy by collisions with IR active gases, some of that IR coming from the surface, and some absorbed directly from the sun. Latent heat from water is also added to the bulk gases. O2 and N2 are slow to shed this heat, and indeed must pass it back to IR active gases at the top of the troposphere for radiation into space.
In a parcel of air each molecule of CO2 is surrounded by 2500 other molecules, mostly O2 and N2. In the lower atmosphere, the air is dense and CO2 molecules energized by IR lose it to surrounding gases, slightly warming the entire parcel. Higher in the atmosphere, the air is thinner, and CO2 molecules can emit IR and lose energy relative to surrounding gases, who replace the energy lost.
This third pathway has a significant delay of cooling, and is the reason for our mild surface temperature, averaging about 15C. Yes, earth’s atmosphere produces a buildup of heat at the surface. The bulk gases, O2 and N2, trap heat near the surface, while CO2 provides radiative cooling at the top of the atmosphere.”
N2 and O2 are virtually transparent to the radiation upwelling from the Earth, so they get their energy from collisions with radiatively active gases, as Clutz says.
N2 and O2 absorb UV radiation and hardly any IR radiation, so they serve to prevent some solar radiation reaching the surface. The reason it is warmer at the surface than the top of the troposphere is because of GHGs, not N2 and O2.
Roy has made the last point before – the reason we have a negative lapse rate and weather is due to GHGs.
I think his explanation is clear enough, barry. No need for me to correct you through reiteration, it stands as it is.
He makes it seem as if CO2 is responsible only for cooling of the atmosphere, when it is also responsible for warming it.
He also says:
“Calculations of the free mean path for CO2 show that energy passes from surface to tropopause in less than 5 milliseconds. This is almost speed of light, so delay is negligible.”
Apparently ignoring the fact that energy travels in all directions, not just towards space. Also ignoring that collisional emissions are not necessarily instantaneous, and so a photon of energy that only travelled spaceward with each emission could take several seconds to escape the atmosphere.
barry, I wouldn’t expect a brief comment to fully capture every single nuance in great detail. It’s a good example of a comment that keeps things as simple as possible, but no simpler. It gets across the general idea that pathway 3), involving nitrogen and oxygen, represents by far the longest delay in energy escaping the Earth’s system. Makes sense to me, but then…what do I know?
It seems to neatly turn the usual GHE narrative on its head. Is it correct? I don’t know, but at least it’s a positive contribution and a step in a different direction. Something to think about.
He confuses the issue by ignoring half of the radiation emitted the atmosphere – the half that travels Earthward. His vision of the “free mean path” is not only incorrect, it presents a myopic view of radiative transfer through the atmosphere.
And based on that myopic view he suggests – he doesn’t enumerate – that all the radiation leaving the surface escapes to space in milliseconds – and in one direction. What can be said of this view other than it is fatally selective?
From my point of view, the energy from the atmosphere that’s re-radiated towards the surface isn’t going to warm it/insulate it/result in it being at a higher temperature (delete as appropriate for what you need to hear), so that doesn’t concern me. Perhaps that’s why Clutz’s comment makes more sense to me, personally.
But, that’s a different version of the GHE, anyway. The one where it’s described as “back-radiation warming the surface” is quite different to the one where it’s described as “a delay in radiation escaping to space”. Clutz’s comment is more geared towards the latter. Of course, when one version of the GHE is challenged, its defenders merely switch to another one.
This description is somewhat accurate but misses out by not telling us what percentage of energy takes which route. From what I’ve read (which could be wrong),
1) is about 10-20%
2) is less than 0.001%
3) is about 80-90%
So why even mention 2)?
In addition, O2 and N2 are constantly interacting with radiative gases (especially H2O) so I don’t like the use of “trapping energy” in any form. Energy is constantly being radiated in all directions by radiative gases.
The average photon life in the lower atmosphere is very short. They travel only a few meters before being reabsorbed. It is useful to think in terms of averages. The average photon travels upward only a couple of meters, but it is always upward.
The source of downward radiation that is absorbed by the surface comes from only a few meters above the surface and will be balanced out by an increased in conduction back to the lower atmosphere. It has no warming effect.
With this in mind, 2.1) can also be theorized similar to 2) with longer delays. Since all energy eventually gets radiated to space, 100% of the energy moves via 2.1 at some point in time.
Another misconception is that the atmosphere prevents radiation to space until you get way up in the stratosphere or mesosphere. With a clear sky, energy is radiated to space from the atmosphere as soon as the density starts to decrease (this is why the atmosphere cools adiabatically). This happens as soon as we rise above the atmospheric boundary layer (~1.2 km).
This is why I don’t like the term “greenhouse effect”.
“From my point of view, the energy from the atmosphere thats re-radiated towards the surface isnt going to warm it/insulate it/result in it being at a higher temperature (delete as appropriate for what you need to hear), so that doesnt concern me.”
Yes, you ignore half the total radiation being emitted by the atmosphere, same as Clutz. Clutz only sees the photons heading spaceward in a straight line – which is much less than even half the total radiation emitted (Clutz imagines a photon travelling directly upwards from molecule to molecule).
His ‘free mean path’ calculation is wrong, ignoring that radiation is emitted randomly, not just in one direction.
Mean free path is actually the average distance a particle travels before interacting with something. He coins it as the total time it takes for radiation to pass through the atmosphere.
This is basic stuff. And he gets it wrong.
I do not ignore down-welling IR, barry.
“He coins it as the total time it takes for radiation to pass through the atmosphere.“
False. That is just your mis-reading.
Clutz says:
“Calculations of the free mean path for CO2 show that energy passes from surface to tropopause in less than 5 milliseconds.”
He is saying that the “free mean path” for energy is a direct vector from surface to tropopause.
In a straight line surface to the tropopause a photon of energy would pass through about 10,000 CO2 molecules. As the mean free path between CO2 molecules in the troposphere is about one metre, and it takes energy 0.00003 milliseconds to travel one metre, then a straight vector with no delays between absorp.tion and emission gives an estimate of 0.3 milliseconds. If Clutz makes a very conservative assumption of a delay between absorp.tion and emission, then just for CO2 he would have to be positing the delay is transference to be a single factor of 10 (to get near 5 milliseconds).
Confounding this is his own postulation about IR energy being transferred to O2 and N2, which are far more abundant, by collision, and requiring collision to give off the energy that originated from the surface. Now you have orders of magnitude more molecules between the surface and the tropopause.
But even just for CO2 the true path of energy is a random walk, making the total distance traveled (for all energy not returning to the surface) orders of magnitude longer, making the time for energy to travel from surface to space orders of magnitude longer – more likely in seconds rather than milliseconds.
And why any of this speaks against ‘greenhouse’ warming is not estimated numerically. Clutz tells us that a process happens in milliseconds, and leaves our imaginations to figure that such a small number must therefore mean something.
His bare figures are wrong and in any case he doesn’t lay out in numerical terms why it matters. His claim is rhetorical, not scientific.
But maybe he has a more detailed argument?
"Clutz says:
“Calculations of the free mean path for CO2 show that energy passes from surface to tropopause in less than 5 milliseconds.”"
Yes. So, he’s not saying that the "free mean path" is "the total time it takes for radiation to pass through the atmosphere". He’s saying that calculations involving the "free mean path" for CO2 show that energy passes from surface to tropopause in less than 5 milliseconds. I’ve seen a paper that calculates this delay before. Perhaps he was referring to the same one. You wouldn’t like it, based on the journal it was published in, probably. And yes, I’ve looked, and couldn’t find it to link to it here, and no, I’m not making that up.
"Clutz only sees the photons heading spaceward in a straight line – which is much less than even half the total radiation emitted (Clutz imagines a photon travelling directly upwards from molecule to molecule)."
Are you a mind reader, by the way? I didn’t pick you up on this before. Should have done. You seem to think you have some direct access to Clutz’s brain. You’re certainly not getting that from what he’s written.
Try to find the paper I’m referring to, don’t try to find it. I’m rapidly running out of bother with any of this, at the moment. Too many t-words dragging me down.
"Confounding this is his own postulation about IR energy being transferred to O2 and N2, which are far more abundant, by collision, and requiring collision to give off the energy that originated from the surface. Now you have orders of magnitude more molecules between the surface and the tropopause."
Well, barry, that’s not confounding it at all, is it? His entire point is that pathway 3), involving the O2 and N2, is by far the biggest delay for energy getting out of the Earth system. It seems you are saying you agree…whilst still trying to trash the comment.
Trashing the comment, one way or another, is all you really seem to care about.
Found out the name of the paper – Atmospheric Radiative Heat Transfer in Context, by Dr Dai Davies. Doesn’t seem to exist anywhere now…all links to it seem to be broken. Was never published in a journal, so you’d have dismissed it anyway.
“You seem to think you have some direct access to Clutzs brain. Youre certainly not getting that from what hes written”
No, I did some working out of my own while checking up on his figure.
But you inadvertently corroborate my point – there is no work shown for what he’s saying.
I found the paper you were looking for.
https://web.archive.org/web/20190327011312/http://brindabella.id.au/climarc/dai/RadiativeDelay/RadiativeDelayInContext170828.pdf
Don’t have time right now to read it.
Clutz says:
“Calculations of the free mean path for CO2 show that energy passes from surface to tropopause in less than 5 milliseconds. This is almost speed of light, so delay is negligible..”
It takes 0.04 milliseconds for light to travel 11 kilometres, so “almost the speed of light” is in fact 100 times slower.
Sorry, I’m not “trashing” anything. These qualitative remarks of Clutz are wrong, or at best misleading. It’s not me saying energy travelling at 5 milliseconds over 11 kilometres is “almost the speed of light.”
Yeah, this is getting boring for me, too.
Obviously there is no work shown for route 2), which is the only route you seem to be fixated on. However, I’ve seen that these sort of calculations have been done, and that the delay was negligible, so saw no real reason to doubt what he’d said. You’re right to check up on these things, of course. There is also a paper involving mean free path calculations and the delay time from CO2 by Nasif Nahle. Similarly, the links to it are now broken. Might be one you can resurrect using the wayback machine again (thanks for doing that for the Dai Davies paper).
The Nasif Nahle paper is "Determination of Mean Free Path of Quantum/Waves and Total Emissivity of the Carbon Dioxide Considering the Molecular Cross Section"
From the abstract, which I was able to find (just not a link to the full paper):
"Through the application of astrophysical formulas, the mean free path length of a Quantum/wave stream leaving the surface of the Earth to the outer space before it has collided with a molecule of carbon dioxide and its total emissivity are calculated. The output of this algorithm indicates a value of about 33 meters. Also calculated is the time taken by a Quantum/wave to exit the atmosphere after it has collided with a molecule of carbon dioxide — which is 5 milliseconds (ms)."
So, I think this is probably the source of Clutz’s remarks for pathway 2). Have at it, barry.
It’s not really going to change the fact that obviously pathway 3) represents a significantly longer delay…
First two sentences of the introduction:
“The objective of this work was to quantify the rate at which radiative processes can transfer energy through the atmosphere. Specifically, it considers vertical transfer from the Earths surface to space…”
But it appears this isn’t the paper you mean?
I’m done with retrieving links for you and you not providing any. I couldn’t even find the abstract for your latest ‘paper’.
So, thanks, but no thanks.
Yes, barry, “vertical”. Are you surprised that the pathway from surface to space generally goes “upwards”!?
Here is the abstract:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/266280831_Determination_of_Mean_Free_Path_of_QuantumWaves_and_Total_Emissivity_of_the_Carbon_Dioxide_Considering_the_Molecular_Cross_Section
And through that I found the paper.
It’s gobbledygook.
https://web.archive.org/web/20161027101617/http://tech-know-group.com/papers/Carbon_dioxide_free_path_length.pdf
Check out this wondrous formula.
ρCO2 = (12.187 * Molar mass of CO2 * volumetric fraction of CO2) ÷ (276.69 K) = 756 mg/m^3
“Where 12.187 is the molar mass of elemental carbon, molar mass of carbon dioxide is 44.01, and the
volumetric fraction of CO2 is 390 ppmV and 276.69 K is for temperature.”
Dividing by temperature to get gas density? Without including a pressure term in he quotient? And multiplying molar mass of CO2 by the mass of carbon? What on God’s green Earth?
Yes, you’re right. I’m going to dismiss the paper because it’s not peer-reviewed. I doubt it would have even been accepted to BE reviewed. For Pete’s sake, I didn’t take science beyond high school and even I can see that this formula is ridiculous.
And this is the kind of thing you rely on?
Ok, please make that formula make sense for determining “The density of the gas carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.”
I am all ears.
"And this is the kind of thing you rely on?"
Not in the least, barry. In fact, I hadn’t even looked at it until you linked to it just now. As I said, I’ve seen that these sort of calculations have been done before (with the Dai Davies paper), and that the delay was negligible, so saw no real reason to doubt what Clutz said. Despite your opinion of the Nahle paper, I still see no real reason to doubt it – pathway 2) is going to present a negligible delay in energy escaping the Earth system.
Pathway 3) is always going to present a considerably longer delay than either 1) or 2). You don’t seem to dispute that, all you’re doing is nitpicking over the details regarding pathway 2). You’re trying everything you can to reject the entire comment on that basis. That’s something I see often from you guys. Throw out the baby with the bathwater…
You mean, never mind all the flaws, just take the bits that seem right?
That’s not how science works.
“3) The bulk gases of the atmosphere, O2 and N2, are warmed by conduction and convection from the surface. They also gain energy by collisions with IR active gases, some of that IR coming from the surface, and some absorbed directly from the sun. Latent heat from water is also added to the bulk gases. O2 and N2 are slow to shed this heat, and indeed must pass it back to IR active gases at the top of the troposphere for radiation into space.”
None of this interferes with the GHE, so I’m not sure why I should be interested in it. Conduction, which occurs in the first few millimetres of the atmosphere, accounts for a few percent of the total atmospheric heat transfer (less than 10%, locally variable), while convection and radiation comprise the major components of heat transfer.
N2 and O2 receive surface heat primarily through collision with infrared radiative gases (GHGs). If there were no GHGs in the atmosphere, 90% of the surface heat would escape immediately to space. With GHGs present, the ‘atmospheric window’ allows about 10% of ground radiation to escape directly to space.
Collisional interaction with GHGs is no impediment to the ‘greenhouse’ theory. As Clutz says, the O2/N2 atmosphere can’t emit to space the energy gained from the ground. That can only happen near the top of the atmosphere when those molecules collide with infrared active gases, which can then emit the energy to space.
If you – or Clutz – is trying to argue that the collisional aspect of heat transfer somehow diminishes the GHE, then you’ve really missed the point.
And Clutz has missed the point that the escape of surface radiation to space is NOT 5 milliseconds when the actual processes are all taken into account. GHGs pass surface energy through the atmosphere via emission and collision. But the “free mean path” of photons through the atmosphere calculated by a couple of authors you’ve mentioned does not take into account the heat transfer in point 3) you seem to think is important.
Point 2 and 3 are mutually incoherent. N2 and O2 need GHGs to gain most of the energy emitted by the surface, and then to shed it to space. But the 5 milliseconds of energy transfer from surface to tropopause ignores this collisional activity.
Obviously the point is to reduce the importance of GHGs in the atmos, specifically CO2. But this is done exceptionally poorly. It’s rhetoric with zero foundation in competent analysis.
“Pathway 3) is always going to present a considerably longer delay”
So? Pathway 3 can’t happen without GHGs.
More GHGs send more radiation groundward, as well as skyward (in every direction).
Every GHG added to the atmos presents another collisional opportunity for non-radiative (infrared) gases.
So now more GHGs collide with N2 and O2, exciting them, creating more heat. Now more O2 and N2 gases need to collide with GHGs to lose that radiation to space.
And what value does Clutz or any of the other authors you refer to give for energy to pass from surface to tropopause when collisional interactions are included?
And what is the estimated change in delay when CO2 is doubled?
The relative “delay”, while something of a furphy, is not even enumerated – in any of the sources you’ve provided.
Yet more qualitative analysis.
No wonder these people don’t get published.
"You mean, never mind all the flaws, just take the bits that seem right?"
No. You’ve not really found any flaws, barry. Mostly it is just your mis-reading of the comment, plus you zeroing in on irrelevant details (like the speed of light nit-pick – I mean, seriously!?) and missing the broader point. You haven’t even acknowledged that this comment was wrong:
"Mean free path is actually the average distance a particle travels before interacting with something. He coins it as the total time it takes for radiation to pass through the atmosphere."
You never concede anything, though, so that was to be expected.
barry…pathway 2) is basically just photons being pinged back and forth by CO2 molecules until they escape to space. It’s only going to represent a very small delay. If the energy is transferred to O2 and N2 molecules via collision with CO2 molecules then we’re talking about pathway 3), instead. So no, there is no "mutual incoherence" between 2) and 3).
You keep missing the overall point, which is incredibly basic (in fact, bizarrely, you don’t seem to miss it, you actually keep making the point for me, as if it supports you instead of me). The pathway involving the N2 and O2 represents a much larger delay in the escape of energy from the Earth system. As you said:
"the O2/N2 atmosphere can’t emit to space the energy gained from the ground. That can only happen near the top of the atmosphere when those molecules collide with infrared active gases, which can then emit the energy to space."
Which is precisely what I’m trying to explain, barry. The N2/O2 "holds onto" the energy far longer than GHGs, and in fact need GHGs to pass it on to and radiate it away! So GHGs aren’t the cause of the biggest delay in energy getting out of the Earth system. N2/O2 are.
Thanks Roy. Trouble is, there are lots of commenters around here (that also post on WUWT) who don’t understand atmospheric radiation heat transfer.
Let me remind folks again about my Green Plate Demo, in which I presented an experiment showing the effect of adding a cooler body between a heated body and it’s surroundings under high vacuum conditions. In that demo, like the Earth system, the temperature is the result of energy flowing thru from hot to cold and represents a steady state condition. For the Earth, there’s a continual change in local temperatures, because the system is never at steady state. These processes involved do not violate the Second Law of Thermodynamics.
https://principia-scientific.com/greenplate-effect-it-doesnt-happen/
https://principia-scientific.com/greenplate-effect-it-does-not-happen-proof-no-2/
Roy, G. Hughes’ experiment is deeply flawed IMHO. Here’s a few reasons:
1 – His temperature is measured with a digital thermometer, which is likely to be an immersion type. In his second round, his figure 3 shows his “thermometer well”, a small diameter pipe fitting glued to his plate. In his video at ~22:30 to 22:50, he places the thermometer into the well. The thermometer leans side to side, which to me says the instrument is balanced on it’s tip and rests against the top edge of the “well”. That’s not good thermal contact. Also, the stem of the instrument is exposed to the IR radiation from the surroundings, including the walls of the glass cylinder and the top and bottom of of the second plate.
2 – He can not measure the temperature of the top plate, only the bottom one. He did not record the temperature of the cylinder or the plastic lid. He notes that his cylinder is a good insulator but fails to note that is is also likely to be a good absorber and emitter of thermal IR, which would tend to equalize the surface temperatures within the cylinder.
3 – From the first link, we see that his vacuum gauge is a mechanical one, which does not measure with enough accuracy to support his claim that convection is suppressed. This would be especially import, given the height of the cylinder and the use of a larger 100 watt incandescent light with his second setup.
4 – His pump is connected to his setup with small diameter tubes, as seen in Figure 2 of the first link, which would require a rather long period of time to achieve high vacuum. His second series of runs only lasted 10 minutes each and his batch of graphs showed that the temperature had not reached steady state in any of them.
Further to the debate over the related experiments, there is, of course, the debate over the physics of the Green Plate Effect itself.
There are various ways to debunk it. I’ll pick two relating to "separating the plates". Green Plate Effect defenders have long supported the idea that the plates pressed together are 244 K…244 K…and, upon separation, they supposedly change in temperature to 262 K…220 K.
1) If you accept that there’s such a thing as "back-conduction", then the energy flows before and after separation are identical. The only change is the switch from conduction to radiation between the plates. Thus, there is no reason for the temperature of the blue plate to increase to 262 K, and the green plate to decrease to 220 K.
2) If you don’t accept that there’s such a thing as "back-conduction", then there is one additional energy flow that is there after separation of the plates that wasn’t there before – the transfer of energy from the green plate to the blue plate. The "back-radiation" transfer. Since this is the only different transfer, taking all the others into account, then it must be solely responsible for the blue plate increasing in temperature as the green plate decreases in temperature, upon separation of the plates. This would then represent a transfer of heat from "cold" to "hot", violating 2LoT.
DREMT,
” If you accept that theres such a thing as “back-conduction”, then the energy flows before and after separation are identical.”
Conduction and radiation transfer heat differently, and the rate of heat transfer through conduction is faster than through radiative transfer.
And it directly follows from the above that
“then there is one additional energy flow that is there after separation of the plates that wasnt there before the transfer of energy from the green plate to the blue plate. The “back-radiation” transfer. Since this is the only different transfer,”
Is also not true.
“then it must be solely responsible for the blue plate increasing in temperature as the green plate decreases in temperature, upon separation of the plates. This would then represent a transfer of heat from “cold” to “hot”, violating 2LoT.”
Also not true, because the transfer from cold to hot is energy not heat, as the heat transfer is from the green plate to the blue plate.
Sure, bob, conduction and radiation "transfer heat differently". Not sure what that has to do with my statement, because you haven’t made it clear.
You then say it’s not true that, in 2), there is only one additional energy flow that is there after separation of the plates that wasn’t there before…the transfer of energy from the green plate to the blue plate. What other transfer of energy is there then, that wasn’t there before separation of the plates? The one going from blue to green was there, so you can’t mean that…it was just occurring via conduction instead of radiation.
"Also not true, because the transfer from cold to hot is energy not heat, as the heat transfer is from the green plate to the blue plate."
Assuming you meant to say the heat transfer is from the blue plate to the green plate…it’s pretty hard for you to argue that when the blue plate is raising in temperature and the green plate is falling in temperature, upon separation of the plates…
DREMT,
Yes I meant the heat transfer is from the blue plate to the green plate, no violation of the second law.
Lets look at the equations for heat transfer due to conduction and radiation, shall we.
Conduction
https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=8a6d84e98d25975cJmltdHM9MTcyMzI0ODAwMCZpZ3VpZD0yMWE0ZGFhNi0yZWM1LTYxODYtMDk0Yi1jOGE5MmYxNjYwYWEmaW5zaWQ9NjA4Nw&ptn=3&ver=2&hsh=3&fclid=21a4daa6-2ec5-6186-094b-c8a92f1660aa&psq=equation+for+heat+transfer+due+to+conduction&u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZW5naW5lZXJpbmd0b29sYm94LmNvbS9jb25kdWN0aXZlLWhlYXQtdHJhbnNmZXItZF80MjguaHRtbA&ntb=1
Radiation
https://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/radiation-heat-transfer-d_431.html
Still think they are the same?
bob, your comments are completely non-responsive. It’s like you’re not even reading what I’m saying. Think I’ll just ignore you, unless you come up with something worthwhile.
DREMT,
I am pointing out that your solution of 244 244 is incorrect.
“Green Plate Effect defenders have long supported the idea that the plates pressed together are 244 K244 Kand, upon separation, they supposedly change in temperature to 262 K220 K.”
Because, as I have pointed out to you, heat transfer by conduction works better than heat transfer by radiation, so the temperature difference in the separated case must be larger.
“bob, your comments are completely non-responsive. Its like youre not even reading what Im saying.”
Yes, they are responsive, yes I have read what you have said.
Do you have a kitchen, where you could do a little experimentation to show heat transfer by conduction works better than heat transfer by radiation.
Get a small block of metal, a pan, and a stove.
Put the pan on the hob, turn the heat up.
Hold the block of metal over the pan, with the block of metal not touching, take a note of how long it takes to burn your fingers.
Now repeat the experiment holding the block of metal in contact with the pan, now see how long you can hold the block of metal without burning your fingers.
I noted with some amusement that Swanson chose not to call me “Cult Leader Grammie Pup” this time, like he normally does. It’s funny watching these regularly abusive people all tiptoeing around trying to pretend to be something they’re not, terrified of Dr Spencer banning them, but never thinking that their actions are already a matter of permanent internet record.
The JWST sunshield is another great demonstration of the green plate effect. When the layers were separated the warm side got warmer and the cool side got cooler.
Something that cools the JWST from the Sun, using low emissivity materials, cannot be "another great demonstration of the green plate effect".
Nice. I like reading this now. So much better. No ad hominem. Though, I find it odd Barry has to refer to someone as He.
I believe *Geraint* is the name of a man.
An old man, litteraly.
"An old man, litteraly."
Little Willy, please stop t-word-ing.
> The name Geraint is a Welsh form of the Latin Gerontius, meaning “old man”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geraint
Where did barry refer to Geraint?
Where did Graham D. Warner see Mark reply to Barry?
I didn’t, but he specifically mentioned barry, for some reason. Odd, because barry didn’t comment in this thread. I assumed Mark was talking about the previous thread. And, I’m glad he’s pleased that the quality of discussion has improved.
Well done, nicely said. Thanks!
I come here for the rigor (questioning) around the monthly UAH data.
As the recipient of way more insults and false accusations than anyone else, I appreciate Roy’s effort to clean house a bit.
This issue should be about science, not agenda. Responsible adults favor reality over false beliefs.
> Responsible adults
As the commenter who has been banned the most times from Roy’s and who still hangs around with his latest sock puppet, Puffman throws insults like no one.
***
Willard: So far, you are in the running for a 1st Place trophy. -Roy
Roy,
As the Auditor was wont to say, I play the Climateball where it lands. I’d rather play without too much physical play. But I won’t let myself be tackled on the field without responding in kind.
Hercules did not need a decade to clean up the Augean stables.
I can vouch for Willard, having followed the comments here circa 2013.
Willard, the vast majority of your comments are pure attempts at insults without any content whatsoever — samich request, denier, contrarian, saying stuff, etc. If you have a relevant comment that involves content, or a thought process, then people might respond to you rather than just ignore you.
Dear TS,
I never use the D-word, so you might wish to revise your complaint. Pure denial is not the same thing. “Contrarians” is tried and true.
Requesting for a sammich that has been served multiple times is more than offensive. It is pure bait. It breaks the Cooperation Principle.
If you prefer a longer explanation, here is a simple model:
https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2022/08/01/fail-better/
For some reason you forgot to clutch your pearls about “saying stuff.” Is it because it has been covered by the Climateball Bingo that you praise so mellifluously?
Thank you for your concerns, and please FAIL better.
Little Willy, please stop t-word-ing.
[ALSO GRAHAM D WARNER] when specific people follow you around from thread to thread, always jumping in whenever you comment on anything, it does seem like theyre stalking you.
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2024/08/new-comments-policy-here/#comment-1683902
PSTing doesn’t count as stalking, Little Willy. Sorry.
Highly active hurricane season still predicted, but will La Nia arrive in time to play a part?
“Federal forecasters are still predicting a highly active Atlantic hurricane season thanks to near-record sea surface temperatures and the possibility of La Nia, officials said Thursday.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations updated hurricane outlook said atmospheric and oceanic conditions have set the stage for an extremely active hurricane season that could rank among the busiest on record.”
https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2024/08/08/highly-active-hurricane-season-still-predicted-but-will-la-nina-arrive-in-time-to-play-a-part/#more-68127
…
“These conditions are expected to continue into the fall. Of note, the dry Saharan air that prevented tropical storm development during portions of the middle of the summer is expected to subside in August.
— commenting on the wrong post?
I posted enough on it. Rising C02 levels probably have a slight amount of warming. The amount warming from the recent rise in CO2 levels, has not been measured- therefore it confirms it’s small amount.
The main about CO2, is it’s suppose increase global water vapor- as everyone knows, CO2 by itself, is a weak greenhouse gas. And seems how much increase in global water vapor is also uncertain in terms of the amount.
We have had global warming since the end of Little Ice Age, such warming should cause more global water vapor.
I am also getting message about not waiting enough between post. That post was mostly about testing what’s with this message, and used different browser, though I was having other problem with browser, also. Another thing is weird graphics- and it’s with both browsers. But stopped using other one.
Relevant here is the history of the term “Greenhouse Effect”. In his 1822 work on heat he does mention greenhouses, but not in the context of the effect in the atmosphere. The first comparison was by Ekholm in 1901 in his publication [On the Variation of the Climate of the Geological and Historical Past and Their Causes]. But the first true use of “Greenhouse Effect” was by Poynting in 1907 in which he comments on the “blanketing effect” or as he says he prefers the “greenhouse effect”. Frank Very in the following year of 1908 titled his paper [The Greenhouse Theory and Planetary Temperatures] and thus name sticks.
It is important to point out that these early pioneers of climate system thermodynamics made the comparison only because both a real greenhouse and the climate system trap energy; not because they thought the climate system did so by impeding convection. It was always understood that the climate system trapped energy by impeding radiation. So when contrarians mock the term they are doing so due to ignorance of its history and what it means.
***
—I put no weight into how long ago the analogy was originally made, I’m only addressing the popular perception today. -Roy
“It was always understood that the climate system trapped energy by impeding radiation”
Just to debunk this version of the GHE in a sentence: it is not the GHGs that “trap energy”, it is the oxygen and nitrogen that “hold on” to the energy, precisely because they are far less able to radiate it away.
**** Oh, but yes it is! Look at Venus… almost pure CO2 (96%). You forget that any IR emitter is also an absorber. So, the greater the GHGs, the greater the GHE. -Roy
No, Dr Spencer, I didn’t forget that…I think what I’m saying is made clearer here:
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2024/08/yes-the-greenhouse-effect-is-like-a-real-greenhouse-and-other-odds-and-ends/#comment-1682431
On Venus, due to the high percentage of CO2 in the atmosphere, pathway 2) will present a far more significant delay in the escape of energy than pathway 2) on Earth.
Also, its atmosphere is very dense, far more so than Earth’s.
Dr Spencer, I just want to thank you for doing this. Your contribution to the science is very important and useful. I am encouraged that you are going to keep the comment section alive rather than just shutting it down. I believe in free speech. I think that moderation for content is not useful. On the other hand, moderation for behavior is very appropriate in my view.
Edit: If this does eventually get posted, I had to wait because when I first tried to post I received a warning message that I am posting too fast — slow down.
Posting too fast? Hmmm… that must be some feature of the plugin I just added which allows a daily limit on the number of comments. I’ll keep an eye on it. I personally don’t believe it’s possible to “post too fast”… I admire rapid retorts. (smiley face)
-Roy
I tried about 20 minutes after my previous post and then again a few minutes later. On a hunch, I waited more than an hour and it posted.
Yes, it is an hour. Here is the quote:
You are posting comments too quickly. Slow down.
— OK, I’ll take a look. -Roy
I can verify that this warning has been been a feature of this website for years.
I think a limit of 10 comments a day is reasonable. I’ve never even gone close to making that many.
So, what got Dr Roy this grumpy?
Go read the last 100 or so comments under this month’s data update for a clue. Its that way every month where two or three trulls basically dominate the page with BS.
It’s been that way for years and years. The counts this month are actually rather low compared to when Flynn-Swens0n was around.
“each atmospheric layer achieving a temperature where rates of absorbed and emitted radiation are equal no convection”
Maybe this is the problem — the atmosphere doesn’t have static layers, within the greenhouse or without. The various gasses move; hot up and cold down, and change temperature and density as they move and remix.
An arbitrary layer can’t achieve a equilibrium without exchanging mass nd energy with another layer.
I think of the exchange as convection — perhaps this is the sticking point.
Your characterization seems to be at odds with my understanding of Shula and Ott. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JtvRVNIEOMM&t=5s
Winston
The role of CO2
Total CO2 in the air is currently approx. 420 ppm (= 0.042% or 0.00042 parts).
CO2 makes up < 3% of the "greenhouse effect". Water H2O(g) ~ 97%.
(Textbook : John Houghton, The Physics of Atmospheres, 2002)
Man-made emissions are approx. 30-40 ppm calculated and measured with isotopes, i.e. < 10% of total CO2.
(articles in Science of Climate Change by researchers Harde, Salby, Barry, Muller, Ollila)
40 ppm CO2 emissions = 0.00004 shares of the total (!) atmosphere.
Emissions of CO2 then only account for < 10% of < 3% of the greenhouse effect.
It will only be approx. 0.3% of the total greenhouse effect (incl. H2O).
Changes in emissions have no measurable effect on either global temperature or climate. Disappears in measurement uncertainty and variations.
Covid-19 led to reduced emissions of CO2 due to reduced activity in industry and consumption of fossil energy, but it was not measurable for total CO2 in the air.
Forget CO2.
CO2 is a vital plant nutrient of which there should be more in the air.
This quote simply is not true:
“Man-made emissions are approx. 30-40 ppm calculated and measured with isotopes, i.e. < 10% of total CO2.
(articles in Science of Climate Change by researchers Harde, Salby, Barry, Muller, Ollila)
40 ppm CO2 emissions = 0.00004 shares of the total (!) atmosphere.
Emissions of CO2 then only account for < 10% of < 3% of the greenhouse effect."
Emissions are easy to calculate and CO2 in the atmosphere has been accurately measured since at least 1958. By calculation, the current accumulation rate of approximately 2 ppmv per year is less than half of the emissions rate. 40 ppmv has accumulated in just the last 20 years. One can dispute the figure of 280 ppmv for the pre-industrial level. but it most certainly is not 380 ppmv. That was achieved in the year 2002.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide#/media/File:Mauna_Loa_CO2_monthly_mean_concentration.svg
Prof. em. Olilla 2024 shows that man made CO2 emissions in the air gives only 70 GtC (carbon) of total 800 GtC, i.e. only 9 %.
https://scienceofclimatechange.org/wp-content/uploads/Ollila-2023-Carbon-Cycle-Budget.pdf
Other authors have calculated higher values.
“CO2 makes up < 3% of the "greenhouse effect". Water H2O(g) ~ 97%.
(Textbook : John Houghton, The Physics of Atmospheres, 2002)”
No, John Houghton did not make that specific claim in his 2002 textbook The Physics of Atmospheres. Houghton’s work generally emphasizes the significant role of CO2 in the greenhouse effect, although it constitutes a smaller fraction of the atmosphere by volume compared to water vapor. He explains that CO2, despite its lower concentration, is highly effective at absorbing infrared radiation and contributes significantly to the greenhouse effect.
The claim that “CO2 makes up < 3% of the greenhouse effect” is not consistent with the detailed analysis presented in his book.
There are indications that CO2 accounts for less than 3 % of the “grenhouse effect”. From Nelson & Nelson:
Decoupling CO2 from Climate Change
https://www.scirp.org/pdf/ijg_2024032514494686.pdf
“Even with minimal absorbance, water vapor captures the most infrared radiation. It absorbs 84 times more than CO2, 407 thousand times more than methane, 452 thousand times more than ozone and 2.3 million times more than nitrous oxide.”
CO2 emissions as “insulation” in the air will be like adding 0,3 mm to 100 mm house insulation. You will not notice it.
Forget CO2 emissions.
Roy,
I really hope you succeed, but I doubt you will. I started following your monthly updates over 15 years ago and initially enjoyed the discussion in the comments. But for many years the comments have been dominated by a half dozen or so people posting the same thing nearly constantly. I really believe it is a form of mental illness, like compulsive hoarding. They simply can not allow a comment to go unanswered.
MM
Sadly quantum fizix of photon/electron absorbtion has not reached Doctor Roy yet
This claim that Cold Atmosphere can Keep the Surface Warmer is the same like adding insulation to the walls in your house in winter can increase the temperature inside is totally false
The heat source in the house is the furnace burning at 600 degrees , not the air at 20 degrees , insulating the house will not increase the temperature of the furnace one bit it will still burn at exactly 600 degrees, it will be exactly the same .
Just like insulating the water pipe , if you send water at 100 degrees through a pipe and insulating that pipe will not increase the water temperature to 105 degrees
Colder air will not increase the temperature of the warmer ground , learn some fizzix already people
The heat source in the Earth is the Sun burning at 5,772 K.
Atmospheres won’t increase the temperature of the Sun.
Learn how to reason by analogy:
https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2021/06/16/how-to-reason-by-analogy/
Earth’s average global surface air is about 15 C. 15 C surface air temperature is a cold air temperature.
Our cold surface air temperature are average temperature if an Ice Age as we are in one of the coldest Ice Ages Earth has ever have. In deepest and coldest times it’s about 5 C colder and in warmest times of our Ice Age, the average global temperature is about 5 C warmer than in our present “warmest time” which is called Holocene, and last interglacial period, we call, the Eemian interglacial period which was warmer and had higher sea level, but were warmer one than the Eemian interglacial. In last couple million year it’s been the coldest in our Ice Age, which is called the Late Cenozoic Ice Age.
But this “Cold Atmosphere is at higher elevation where is a lot colder, or we lapse rater of about 6.5 per 1000 meter, and 5 km it’s 6.5 x 5 = 32.5 C colder than the surface air temperature.
So, one could it’s keeping us warming, but it cold at the surface. It’s warmer in the ice box.
So we ice box which gets sunlight, if sunlight melts some of the ice [and our skies are full of ice] that is warming the ice box.
In rare response to Wiltard, not to confuse the resident readers, the earth is heated by radiation only and not attached to the sun . Radiation has no temperature only frequency, heat only occurs when matter absorbs radiation therefore your argument is invalid , the heating and the temperature of the earth starts at its surface where the temperature is at its highest,
This is not analogy this is fizzix No heat from the colder air will go back to the warmer surface to increase its temperature
> Willtard
What you deny as impossible has been measured, and your return to your old ways is noted.
“The heat source in the house is the furnace burning at 600 degrees , not the air at 20 degrees , insulating the house will not increase the temperature of the furnace one bit”
The heat source for the earth is the sun. Akin to home insulation, thickening the atmos with GHGs will slow down the escape of Earth’s radiative heat to space. If the heat input is continuous but the rate of heat loss is modified, the temperature of what is heated will change. Physics 101.
–Eben says:
August 10, 2024 at 5:28 AM
In rare response to Wiltard, not to confuse the resident readers, the earth is heated by radiation only and not attached to the sun . Radiation has no temperature only frequency, heat only occurs when matter absorbs radiation therefore your argument is invalid , the heating and the temperature of the earth starts at its surface where the temperature is at its highest,
This is not analogy this is fizzix No heat from the colder air will go back to the warmer surface to increase its temperature–
Cold upper air does heat, tropical air falls and heats. And causes deserts, because the falling cold air is dry.
But as far radiant issue rather than convection heating, I will leave that to others- it seems it could be a small effect, unlike, falling air from the tropics.
“The heat source for the earth is the sun.”
Sorry barry, but that ain’t what your cult believes. Your cult believes the atmosphere warms Earth. Check NASA’s bogus “Energy Balance”. It shows the atmosphere supplying more flux to the surface than Sun.
You’re not going to deny your cult, are you?
> your cult […] Your cult […] your cult […] bogus
From the horse’s mouth:
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/EnergyBalance
First sentence.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth%27s_energy_budget#/media/File:The-NASA-Earth's-Energy-Budget-Poster-Radiant-Energy-System-satellite-infrared-radiation-fluxes.jpg
The caption reads:
The [8] refers to this poster:
https://web.archive.org/web/20140421050855/http://science-edu.larc.nasa.gov/energy_budget/
In contradiction to what has been suggested earlier, nowhere is it stated or implied that the energy source is within the system itself or that the atmosphere produces more energy than what was taken in.
Eben suggests: “Radiation has no temperature only frequency”
This is not correct. The radiation from the sun has a specific distribution of intensities at the various frequencies. For example, Wein’s Law tells us the frequency with maximum intensity. The white color as it reaches our eyes tells us the temperature of the source … and the ‘temperature’ of the set of photons.
NASA’s bogus “energy budget” tells us Earth’s surface only receives 163.3 W/m² from Sun, but 340.3 W/m² from the atmosphere!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth%27s_energy_budget#/media/File:The-NASA-Earth's-Energy-Budget-Poster-Radiant-Energy-System-satellite-infrared-radiation-fluxes.jpg
Sometimes you have to explain things more than once….
> bogus […] only receives 163.3 […] Sometimes you have to explain things more than once…
The figure reads:
> 340.3
Well, actually, it’s 340.4.
And some need a responsible adult to explain the simple bogus diagram to them….
> responsible adult […] bogus
Res ipsa loquitur.
Dachshund, you should escape your childish fizzix and try to learn real physics instead of insulting a person who undoubtedly knows way more than you.
You can not dispute one word of what I typed here
Eben
Where did you learn your “fizix”?
Why don’t you use your physics knowledge to EXPLAIN to Dr Spencer exactly what you believe he is missing.
Any chance of that happening soon?
” No heat from the colder air will go back to the warmer surface to increase its temperature ”
That’s the beginning of the nonsense in your fizzix head.
No one talking about physics does claim what you tell here.
That NASA energy budget Clint R posted still takes the cake , not only they have colder air sending energy back to the ground they amplify that energy and are sending back double the energy of the ground received from the Sun to begin with. They double the energy just bouncing it between the ground and air, extre energy out of thin air literally
How do you seriously debate people who believe this nonsense
Konstantin Kisin speaks about climate: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_oYtIvTNi4
Solar wind
speed: 378.4 km/sec
density: 2.52 protons/cm3
Daily Sun: 10 Aug 24
https://spaceweather.com/
Sunspot number: 382
The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 306 sfu
Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 26.51×10^10 W Warm
Oulu Neutron Counts
Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: -4.5% Low
9 numbered sunspots. one might leave within a day.
A fading one, might be coming from farside {southern hemisphere}.
Solar wind
speed: 489.7 km/sec
density: 23.93 protons/cm3
[“ONE CME HAS ARRIVED, MORE TO COME:”]
Daily Sun: 11 Aug 24
Sunspot number: 234
“Sunspot AR3780 has a beta-gamma-delta magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares.”
The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 291 sfu
Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 26.72×10^10 W Hot
Oulu Neutron Counts
Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: -4.5% Low
3780 is directly facing Earth.
Solar wind
speed: 506.7 km/sec
density: 27.56 protons/cm3
Daily Sun: 12 Aug 24
Sunspot number: 194
The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 282 sfu
Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 26.89×10^10 W Hot
Oulu Neutron Counts
Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: -7.1% Low
11 numbered sunspots
Solar wind
speed: 445.3 km/sec
density: 11.44 protons/cm3
Sunspot number: 245
The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 272 sfu
Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 27.36×10^10 W Hot
Oulu Neutron Counts
Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: -7.5% Low
11 numbered spots. one leaving, none coming from farside, yet.
No new spots have appeared on nearside, after 3788 came from farside.
Though there are spots, and some quite small which might numbered as spots, but it seems as likely some small numbered spots will fade/disappear on nearside, soon.
Solar wind
speed: 400.1 km/sec
density: 13.67 protons/cm3
Daily Sun: 14 Aug 24
Sunspot number: 199
The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 260 sfu
Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 29.09×10^10 W Hot
Oulu Neutron Counts
Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: -7.0% Low
“Sunspot AR3784 has a beta-gamma-delta magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares.”
3784 will be directly facing Earth in a day.
10 numbered spots, one leaving to the farside, and none coming from farside.
I am going to Canada for week. And I won’t following the sun’s activity for a week.
If the greenhouse gas effect is relevant and causes this warming by trapping heat then the energy radiated to outer space should be decreasing. It is not decreasing!
Nabil:
That is only true if there are no feedbacks, that is, if OLR is decreasing from increasing CO2 alone and there is resulting warming with no feedbacks, and with a time lag from the heat capacity of the climate system.
But if there are positive feedbacks, warming is amplified and OLR can increase more than the CO2-caused decrease. I’ve looked at the OLR trends from the CMIP5 models and the more the models warm, the greater the *upward* trend in OLR.
Besides, AIRS satellite data do show IR decreasing in the CO2 spectral bands. This is why one of the AIRS products is retrieved CO2… they estimate CO2 by how much outgoing IR is decreased in the CO2 bands vs. other bands.
-Roy
Thanks for the good explanation.
Outgoing IR will decrease in the CO2 bands as CO2 concentration increases due to pressure broadening. This is countered by an increase over the rest of LW spectrum due to a reduction over water vapor bands.
Since the Hunga Tonga eruption this reduction has been temporarily eliminated, but it will resume once the normal high altitude water vapor levels are restored.
Data please. IIRC the energy imbalance is up to 1.5W/m^2 from the 0.7W/m^2 it was before.
Since the Sun is no stronger either OLR has decreased or albedo has decreased or both. Either way the outgoing energy has decreased.
https://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/documents/STM/2023-05/15_Loeb_Contributed_Science_Presentation_2023.pdf
Ent, “flux” is NOT “energy”. You can’t compare “flux-in” to “flux-out” in general cases like Earth, which has different temperatures, areas, and emissivities.
> general cases like Earth
Earth is not a general case.
It has a specific area, and its temperature and emissivity can be averaged.
A specific flux must be matched with a specific area, temperature, and emissivity.
And fluxes from different “specifics” can’t be averaged.
That’s one of the reasons the bogus “Energy Balance” and “Energy Imbalance” are bogus.
> bogus
The energy balance model of *any* planet is what should be called general, e.g.:
https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2121084119
Once the parameters of a specific planet are determined, there is no accusation of generality that can hold.
And of course any quantity that satisfies additivity can be averaged.
Nabil, you need to review the 1st law of thermodynamics. It says dE = Ein – Eout. That means trapping, defined as dE > 0, occurs as long as Ein > Eout. dE > 0 can occur even when dEout > 0 as long as dEin > dEout.
OK, I found the setting for minimum time required between comments. Stupid thing is called “flood protection”, as if I would know what that means.
Without a timer your site becomes vulnerable to DDoS attacks. It also offers protection against spam. Timeouts can also reduce food fights.
All in all, a Good Thing.
Flood as in flooding your server with requests. In your case, mostly spam bots.
A small delay might also reduce food fights.
The plugin that I was testing out which had a time limit between comments was new, and I disabled it. I’ve had no issues without a time limit before that… I have other plugins for security. -Roy
You were probly testing “Limit Comments and Word Count,” which only works if you create members. If so it’s good that you didn’t go with it. It has other issues too.
There is still spam in the old comment threads, e.g.
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2015/12/2015-will-be-the-3rd-warmest-year-in-the-satellite-record/#comment-1378011
Perhaps they’re pingbacks? If so, perhaps they still appear in your comments’ list. It’s possible to go at the end of it and remove them by hand.
The only problem I can see with setting a very short timer (like 2-5 min) is to correct typos.
Have you considered putting a character limit to the comments? Walls of words aren’t great. More will come if you ever reinstate a comments limit.
And if the greenhouse gas effect is relevant and causes this warming by trapping heat then the the atmosphere should gain heat and potential energy. It is not!
There is not any +33C Greenhouse Warming Effect on Earths surface.
It is a huge scientific mistake.
The entire greenhouse warming from Earths atmosphere is some ~0,4C.
In conclusion, the 1,5C Global Warming observed since predindustrial period (1850) can only be explained by natural orbital causes.
https://www.cristos-vournas.com
Is is. See “Heat stored in the Earth system 19602020” by [Schuckmann et al. 2023].
Atmosphere is too thin to store heat. But heat is stored in the oceanic waters.
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https://www.cristos-vournas.com
“And if the greenhouse gas effect is relevant and causes this warming by trapping heat then the the atmosphere should gain heat and potential energy. It is not!”
The graph in the monthly updates here shows the temperature of the lower troposphere, which has gained heat since 1979.
The lower troposphere is one detail, in fact a small and negligible detail. Search for the rest of the atmosphere details of temperature and potential energy trnds. Do a simple math and you will know what I mean.
Well, yes, the lower stratosphere has cooled – in line with predictions of GHG warming made decades before the stratospheric cooling was observed.
So far so good – the portion of the atmosphere predicted to gain heat has done so – the mid and total troposphere has warmed, as well as the lower troposphere. And the lower to mid stratosphere has cooled.
I’m not seeing what you’re seeing. You really haven’t spelled out much that isn’t instantly rebutted by observation.
This is the amount of energy stored by different parts of the climate system since 1960.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth%27s_energy_budget#/media/File%3AEarth's_Heat_Accumulation.png
IIRC the percentage distribution is 93% to the ocean, 2.8% to ice melt, 3.5% to land and 0.7% to the atmosphere.
The radiative part of the greenhouse effect certainly exist, but it is weak.
Consider the IR flux blocked by the clear sky computed by this MODTRAN calculator for 325 ppm and 420 ppm CO2.
https://www.cjoint.com/doc/24_08/NHko3k4e5eZ_Umich-Modtran-325-420ppm.png
420 ppm block 0.65W/m more than 325 ppm do.
Let’s compute the equivalent blackbody temperature of the sky in both cases :
326.56 W/m -> 275.483 K
325.93 W/m -> 275.350 K
Diffrence : 0.133 K
By the way, CO2 molecules at the surface of the earth are always deactivated by collision, they never have time to radiate up or down.
Yes, CO2 molecules are “deactivated by collision”, however they are also activated by collision at the same rate (Kirchhoff’s Law). Thus, CO2 molecules will still radiate energy in the lower atmosphere.
I realize there are a lot of folks who claim Kirchhoff’s Law is not relevant since it deals with equilibrium situations. While the atmosphere is almost never in equilibrium, the average over time does effectively provide equilibrium.
This means CO2 molecules will radiate energy both “up and down” “at the surface”.
Paul,
You are conflating radiative force with radiative response. Those two different, albeit related, concepts. The force is how the Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) is perturbed. The response is how various energy flows (like UWIR) adjust to bring EEI back into balance. For example, the 2xCO2 force might be +4 W.m-2 meaning EEI is +4 W.m-2, but if it requires 3 C of warming to bring the EEI back to 0 W.m-2 then the UWIR response is sblaw(291 K) – sblaw(288 K) = 16.5 W.m-2.
And while it is true that CO2 molecules are more likely collide than to spontaneously emit that does not mean that CO2 molecules do not spontaneously emit and that there emission rate cannot increase. Remember, when CO2 molecules thermalize with the bulk their kinetic energy increases as well since they are still part of the bulk and thus their emission rate increases.
In the lower atmosphere CO2 molecules will almost never reemit energy after absorbing a photon. The amount is too small (one in a million) to have any effect on global temperature.
It is true that CO2’s emission rate increases with higher concentration. This matches the increased ability to absorb energy. Together they balance out in a way that move energy upward through the atmosphere at a constant rate independent of concentration.
No, near the Earth surface, CO₂ molecules absorb IR in the 660 cm-1 range but never radiate because they never have time to emit : they are always deactivated by collision.
The MODTRAN calculator hints that the increase from 325 to 420 ppm locally cause a -0.65 W/m IR flux decrease, equivalent to an increase of 0.13 C of the equivalent temperature of the sky.
At the level of the ground, there is no radiative equilibrium : radiation is only 1/3 of the cooling. The radiative equilibrium is global, summing all altitudes in the atmosphere.
Paul Aubrin wrote:
If that were true, there would not be any measured downward IR radiation from CO2. But such surface radiation has been measured and reported. Here’s one example:
https://ams.confex.com/ams/Annual2006/techprogram/paper_100737.htm
Paul, if that were true then GOES-R channel 16 would not be able to see emissions from CO2 molecules.
“GOES-R channel 16 would not be able to see emissions from CO2 molecules”. At the level of the ground, CO2 molecules are always deactivated by collision. High in the atmosphere, CO2 molecules can radiate.
I see that you agree John Houghton did not support your claim.
As for your new claim that Nelson & Nelson concluded that:
“Even with minimal absorbance, water vapor captures the most infrared radiation. It absorbs 84 times more than CO2, 407 thousand times more than methane, 452 thousand times more than ozone and 2.3 million times more than nitrous oxide.”
Your abbreviated quote is without proper context. The full quote below with the missing context bolded makes more sense:
What do you suppose is the reason Nelson & Nelson limited their radiative analysis to the Atmospheric Window?
Do ‘Nelson and Nelson’ account for the varying intensity of radiartion at different wavelengths/frequencies?
CO2 peak absorp.tion band overlaps Earth’s peak emission band. that’s why CO2 absorbs so strongly. That is why it is a powerful greenhouse gas. Water vapour has a broad absorp.tion band that also overlaps with Earth’s emission band, and with CO2.
barry
” CO2 peak absorp.tion band overlaps Earth’s peak emission band. ”
Are you serious?
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Da2N1L3RiSTGT92XBil0uhPgI2KVknws/view
As you can see, CO2’s and especially H2O’s absorp.tion bands are luckily both outside of the the atmospheric window.
Earth’s broad emission band is around 5 to 30um, centred on 10um, CO2’s peak emission band is in the 13 – 17 um range.
There is significant overlap in the spectrum where CO2 strongly absorbs and the earth strongly emits. That’s why CO2 is seen as a significant contributor to the ‘greenhouse’ effect.
Water vapour is, of course, the primary contributor to the ‘greenhouse’ effect, with a broader emission spectrum than CO2.
The atmospheric ‘window’ is between 8 and 14 um – the emission spectrum that is not much absorbed by GHGs. There is some absorp.tion in the 13-14 range, but WV absorbs weakly here, and a significant fraction of radiation between these wavelengths escapes to space virtually unimpeded.
Arkady,
“The infrared spectra showed the Greenhouse Gases had an exceptionally low a b s o r p t i o n band between 11.67 μm to 9.1 μm, which is a zone called the infrared atmospheric window. Most of the Greenhouse Gases absorb little infrared inside that zone. And that zone is where the Earths surface emits almost all infrared radiation.”
The Stefan-Boltzmann emission law doesn’t apply to terrestrial temperatures.
Earth’s surface doesn’t emit at 288K.
The 288K is the Earth’s mean surface temperature. It is not some blackbody’s uniform surface emitting temperature.
Earth’s mean surface temperature 288K is not from an inner heat source.
The 288K is a result of incident solar EM energy interaction process with planet’s matter.
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https://www.cristos-vournas.com
“The Stefan-Boltzmann emission law doesn’t apply to terrestrial temperatures.”
You are going to have to provide references in support of that statement otherwise you’re just arm-waving.
Planck’s law of radiation can be integrated over the whole spectrum to obtain the Stefan-Boltzmann law.
The Stefan-Boltzmann law is applicable to terrestrial temperatures. The law is universally valid for thermal radiation from objects at any temperature.
We do not need references.
S-B law claims surface at -18C (255K) emits 240W/m2.
It is a temperature a refrigerator has. Also it is that cold at times in winter. And there is nowhere 240W/m2 emitting.
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https://www.cristos-vournas.com
Clint R
If you are uncomfortable with flux, why not just use the total energy.
In a year the Earth (land,ice, ocean and atmosphere) absorbs a total of 10^25 Joules from the Sun.
99.9% of that energy is reradiated back to space.
The difference between them, the energy imbalance of 10^22 Joules is retained. This melts ice and increases the heat content of land, ocean and atmosphere. Increasing heat content is detectable as an increase in temperature
The 288K is the Earth’s mean surface temperature.
A mean surface temperature cannot be associated with any kind of emission spectra profile.
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https://www.cristos-vournas.com
Christos says: “And there is nowhere 240W/m2 emitting.”
Why do you doubt this? The surfaces inside a freezer at -18 C are all emitting this much radiation, and all receiving this much radiation. Since the fluxes are balanced, there is no net energy flow and everything stays at -18C.
You seem to be forgetting the 240 W/m^2 being received. If you only know 1/2 of the energy flows, it is no wonder you are confused.
If you want to see the effects of the 240 W/m^2 separately, put your -18 C surface in deep space (or in a cryogenic vacuum chamber) at 3 K. Then the object will indeed emit a net 240 W/m^2 and will indeed cool rapidly.
Ent, I’m not “uncomfortable with flux”, I’m uncomfortable with perversion.
Trying to claim fluxes simply add/subtract is perverting physics. It’s like claiming passenger jets fly backward. Perversion.
Thank you, Tim.
“If you want to see the effects of the 240 W/m^2 separately, put your -18 C surface in deep space (or in a cryogenic vacuum chamber) at 3 K. Then the object will indeed emit a net 240 W/m^2 and will indeed cool rapidly.”
The solar flux at Earth’s orbit is 1362 W/m2
When divided it gives 340 W/m2
S-B calculates 278,3 K or 6 C.
Also we know a 400 W electrical heater how much warm it feels.
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https://www.cristos-vournas.com
Christos Vournas wrote: “We do not need references.”
Yes, you do need references if you wish to dismiss a universal natural law.
Out of curiosity, how do you calculate the power emitted by a body at -18 °C having a surface area of 1 m²?
Why not?
The weather forecasters split the Earth into 25km grid squares, measure or calculate the amount of energy entering and leaving each square and then add them together to get total energy in and total energy out.
You make an invalid jump from “The Earth’s energy flow is not uniform” to “The Earth’s energy budget cannot be known.”
Thank you, Arkady.
“Out of curiosity, how do you calculate the power emitted by a body at -18 C having a surface area of 1 m?”
–
Do you think an electric heater put in deep space, having surface area of 1 m2, and emitting 240 W would be at -18C ?
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https://www.cristos-vournas.com
Christos Vournas, I simply want you to tell me what your alternative to Stefan-Boltzmann is.
Since you said that “The Stefan-Boltzmann emission law doesn’t apply to terrestrial temperatures.”
Then, what is YOUR method for calculating the power emitted by a body at -18 °C having a surface area of 1 m²?
Arkady, two different bodies at the same temperature may emit dramatically different numbers of W/m2.
Also two bodies at very different temperatures may emit the same number of W/m2.
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https://www.cristos-vournas.com
Also, the higher the temperature – the more intense the body emits.
Now, the lower the emissivity (ε) – the less intense the body emits.
A body with emissivity ε =1 does not emit 240 W/m2
when at -18C.
It is an observation.
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https://www.cristos-vournas.com
Christos Vournas ,
The Stefan-Boltzmann Law explains all those “observations” you describe. Even if two bodies are at the same temperature, differences in emissivity can lead to significantly different emitted power.
Your assertion that The Stefan-Boltzmann emission law doesn’t apply to terrestrial temperatures is without basis.
Thank you, Arkady.
Let’s discuss the:
Earths surface doesnt emit at 288K assertion.
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https://www.cristos-vournas.com
Arkady, let’s also discuss the
The 288K is the Earths mean surface temperature.
A mean surface temperature cannot be associated with any kind of emission spectra profile.
https://www.cristos-vournas.com
And,
“Even if two bodies are at the same temperature, differences in emissivity can lead to significantly different emitted power.”
It is not the S-B emission law. It is an adjustment.
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https://www.cristos-vournas.com
Christos Vournas wrote: “Arkady, let’s also discuss the…”
Christos Vournas I have to apologize but I thought it was clear that this discussion ended when you said “ We do not need references.”
My bad.
Arkady, there are not references.
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https://www.cristos-vournas.com
Christos Vournas,
This may be an ESL (English as a Second Language) issue, but there is a world of difference between saying We do not need references, and there are not references.
The mistake you and many other “skeptics” make is assuming that the various pieces that make up the whole of climate science were invented or discovered specifically for that purpose. Your belief that The Stefan-Boltzmann emission law doesn’t apply to terrestrial temperatures ignores the techniques of InfraRed Thermography (IRT), just to cite one example.
Thank you, Arkady, but I am not skeptic.
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https://www.cristos-vournas.com
Arkady, yes I ignore the techniques of InfraRed Thermography (IRT).
What I do is to compare.
When I learnt that Earth’s Te =255K and Earth’s Tmean =288K and the difference of 33C is due to atmospheric greenhouse effect I knew it is a scientific mistake.
I knew it is a scientific mistake, because the +33C atmospheric greenhouse effect doesn’t happen.
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https://www.cristos-vournas.com
Christos Vournas,
“…I am not skeptic.”
Finally, something we can agree on.
Even though:
1/ you reject the scientific consensus on the Greenhouse effect;
2/ you argue that the Stefan-Boltzmann Law does not apply to terrestrial temperatures;
it’s important to note that within scientific discourse, skepticism is a normal part of the process, but when the term “skeptic” is applied to greenhouse effect disbelievers, it implies a stance that is resistant to established scientific evidence. Such skepticism is sometimes rooted in ideological or economic interests rather than a balanced consideration of the scientific data.
Wrong place.
–
Thank you, Arkady.
“it implies a stance that is resistant to established scientific evidence.”
But I am not resistant, I know it is a mistake.
https://www.cristos-vournas.com
Thank you, Arkady.
It is too late in Athens, Greece.
Shall we continue tomorrow.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DXshisOUQAAroN7.jpg
As you see peak emission from Earth’s surface is at about wavenumber 580 and the peak CO2 absor*btion is about wavenumber700.
The atmospheric window is between wavenumber 900 and wavenumber 1250.
In this context, it is never wrong to recall the excellent work of Joseph W. Chamberlain.
a) Elementary analytic models of climate. 1: The mean global heat balance
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/19790010343/downloads/19790010343.pdf
*
A tiny bit harder to read :–)
b) Theory of planetary atmospheres : an introduction to their physics and chemistry (with Donald M. Hunten)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/bookseries/international-geophysics/vol/36/suppl/C
Bindi found some more links he can’t understand.
This was interesting from the first link (page 9):
As C02 is increased further, the temperature will continue to rise; although the
15 μm bands are already nearly saturated, the 10 μm bands are effectively closing the 8 – 12 μm window, as illustrated in Fig. 2.
Bindi would be hard pressed to state what that “paper” was about, in his own words.
Thank you, Arkady.
“it implies a stance that is resistant to established scientific evidence.”
But I am not resistant, I know it is a mistake.
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https://www.cristos-vournas.com
Nelson & Nelson’s “analysis” is nonsense. There is a myriad of mistakes, next to “absorption” not equating the respective GHE.
As far the atmospheric window goes, it ranges from 8 to 13m (not just 12m as KT97 and others assume, why so ever). Also it is considerably larger than just 40W/m2 (or the 22W/m2 in Trenberth 2011).
They (KT97) made the mistake to assume 2/3s of Earth were covered TOTALLY by clouds, instead of being covered by SOME clouds. And so they concluded:
“no such radiation can directly exit the atmosphere from the surface when clouds are present”
That is like saying there can be no sunshine, if there are clouds in the sky. Realistically the all sky atmospheric window will be in the 65-70W/m2 range.
https://greenhousedefect.com/the-holy-grail-of-ecs/seeing-through-the-atmospheric-window
Dr. Spencer,
“the cold atmosphere helps keep the Earths surface warmer than if the radiative insulation it provides did not exist.”
2 points
1. Slower cooling is not warming
2. If ‘insulation’ causes warming then the polar ice cap ‘warms’ the ocean. (It is a far better insulator than the atmosphere)
The so called ‘GHE’ is a fundamentally flawed theory based on the assumption that the Sun has warmed the Earth up to its current temp.
In fact, the computed 255K is the limit the Earth could cool to given enough time.
The Earhs has cooled for 4+ billion years, and must continue to do so as the 2LOT demands..
Physical and chemical changes that happen as it cools may change the rate at which it cools but they can’t stop it.
Natural systems will evolve such that the maximum amount of heat possible will be lost to space.
H20, the so called greatest GHG, is actually the primary means of the atmosphere cooling to space and the surface cooling to the atmosphere.
The GHE paradigm is fundamentally flawed and looks at reality backward, trying to establish how the surface is heated rather than how the Earth cools..
” 1. Slower cooling is not warming ”
Typical pseudo-skeptical nonsense.
When a body cools slower, its minimum temperature increases.
PhilJ, both your points are wrong/misleading.
1) Reducing the rate of cooling can and often does result in warmer temperatures. Consider a simple analogy. I have a pot on the stove. It is heated from the bottom cools from the top. If I cover the pot, the cooling from the top is reduced and the pot gets warmer.
2) Insulation does not universally cause warming. You have a false analogy. The insulation has to be between a warmer, heated object (like that pot on the stove, or like the surface of the earth) and cooler surroundings (like the room, or like outer space).
If you are going to argue by analogy, you need accurate analogies.
“The Earhs has cooled for 4+ billion years, and must continue to do so as the 2LOT demands..”
No, the 2LOT would only demand continued cooling of the earth for an isolated warm earth with cooler surroundings. The presence of an EVEN HOTTER object like the sun means the earth can cool or warm and 2LOT can still work.
The GHE paradigm is fundamentally correct and looks at reality from all angle, trying to establish how the surface is heated AND how the Earth cools.
Your two points are correct, PhilJ.
You can tell they’re correct by the dedicated effort to attack them by people that have no interest in reality.
Hello tim,
Unlike your pot on the stove (a very poor analogy) the polar ice cap is not an analogy it’s a reality.
“2) Insulation does not universally cause warming. You have a false analogy. The insulation has to be between a warmer, heated object (like that pot on the stove, or like the surface of the earth) and cooler surroundings (like the room, or like outer space).”
The polar ice cap sits between the much colder atmosphere and the warmer (heated) ocean . It fits your description perfectly.
Yet you shy away from agreeing that the ice cap warms the oceans.. why?
“No, the 2LOT would only demand continued cooling of the earth for an isolated warm earth with cooler surroundings. The presence of an EVEN HOTTER object like the sun means the earth can cool or warm and 2LOT can still work.”
The Earth has cooler surroundings and thus must cool, as it has been for billions of years despite solar input.
I agree that the Earth can warm or cool due to variations in solar input. Any warming would be temporary as systems would naturally develop to shed all incoming heat plus some measure of the Earths interal heat.
The Earth must continue to cool until it’s is a dead rock with no atmosphere and a temp approaching the limit of the solar input.
Phil, you missed Dr Roy’s point and my point about radiative insulation.
If you want to talk about insulation in general, then sure, the ice helps keep the polar oceans warm. The water under the ice is ~ -2 C. The top of the ice is MUCH colder. If we did something like mix the top layer so ice didn’t form, there would be a much more heat loss and the average temperature of the Arctic Ocean would be much cooler.
This is not the same point Dr Roy was making, but any insulation between warm and cool areas keeps the warm areas warmer than they would have been without the insulation.
“The Earth has cooler surroundings “
No. The earth has SOME cooler surroundings (space) and SOME warmer surroundings (the sun).
“I agree that the Earth can warm or cool due to variations in solar input. “
Great. That is a start. Now you just have to realize that there can also be variations in OUTPUT away from the earth as well! These variations in output can also cause ‘temporary warming’ — like the general warming over the past 4 decades in Dr Roy’s satellite data.
The Earth must continue to cool until its is a dead rock …
Well, yeah. But this is a SLOW PROCESS. And as you note, this can be interrupted by variations in input (or output) from the earth.
ATM the geothermal flow out of the earth is about 0.1 W/m^2. If you are inclined, you could make a ball-park estimate the cooling rate of the earth. I get something like 0.0000003 K/year, or 3,000,000 years to cool by 1 K. (And this ignores radioactive materials inside the earth adding heat, so the actual rate would be slower.)
This is slow long-term cooling is real and is interesting in its own right, but not germane to changes in climate on the scales of years or decades.
Phil, the Earth only has cooler surroundings on one side (space). The other side is surrounded by something much warmer (Sun). GHGs do not impede (at least not significantly) the flow heat from the warmer surroundings inward, but do impede the flow of heat to the cooler surroundings outward. Notice that in the Sun, Earth, Space system (which is mostly isolated) the flow of heat is still from hot (Sun) to cold (Space). Even as Earth warms the flow of heat is still from hot (Sun) to cold (Space) which is consistent with the 2LOT.
Hello tim,
“If you want to talk about insulation in general, then sure, the ice helps keep the polar oceans warm.”
ah yes, but it does not heat the ocean. Slower cooling is not warming.
“any insulation between warm and cool areas keeps the warm areas warmer than they would have been without the insulation.”
sure, but again, that does not cause warming. it slows the transfer of heat from one to the other.
The atmosphere (in general) certainly slows the transfer of heat from the surface to space and reduces the amount of heat from the Sun reaching the surface.
But h2o (the so called greatest ghg) acts like a a big hole in that insulation, transporting enormous amounts of heat from the surface to the tropopause and out to space. co2 is insignificant in this process until after h2o condenses out, becoming the primary coolant of the atmosphere in the mesosphere
“Now you just have to realize that there can also be variations in OUTPUT away from the earth as well! These variations in output can also cause temporary warming ”
Any variation in output that falls below the amount of input will result in natural changes until output once again exceeds input.
So it is possible that the temperature of water vapor over the ocean in the tropics increases when ozone production decreases. So it is not surprising that El Nio can persist during periods of low solar activity.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_ALL_EQ_2023.png
Lets see, the subsurface wave cant develop to La Nia. The surface temperature remains neutral.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/oceanography/wrap_ocean_analysis.pl?id=IDYOC007&year=2024&month=08
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_JAS_EQ_2024.png
Influenced by depleted ozone within the Ozone Hole, surface UV-B radiation amounts can reach levels found only in the tropics.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/polar/polar.shtml#plot1
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/polar/gif_files/uv_dosage_world_est.gif
A real greenhouse has an opaque roof.
Its purpose is to admit sunlight to support photosynthesis, not to supply heat.
A real greenhouse requires supplemental heating and cooling. They radiate heat to shade and at night time.
A real greenhouse has at least one transparent, sunward facing wall.
Greenhouses are not usually located at in the tropics, and tropical,noonday sun through a transparent roof would not be a desirable feature.
The perfect, imaginary, model greenhouse requires stationary, stable atmosphere in uniform composition under constant sunlight from a single direction.
Like the greenhouse effect, the perfect greenhouse is not observable in the real world.
Not climate action, but biodiversity vandalism
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cokabjDoYzU
SOLAR MINIMUM UPDATE
https://media-cldnry.s-nbcnews.com/image/upload/t_fit-1000w,f_auto,q_auto:best/ap/8838bd07-534d-40dd-9105-ff2534102378.jpg
Biodiversity glorification
Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna26397547
I had never seen this description of the GHE before: <i."The GHE is like a real greenhouse with a perfect roof."
Described like that, it works. We saw a perfect example with the HTE. The additional water vapor and disruption of the Polar Vortex acted as a “perfect roof”. But, it was water vapor making the difference, not CO2.
The difference is CO2 only has one line spectrum related to surface temperatures, and that’s for 15 micron. Water vapor has many lines, almost performing as a solid surface. Many higher energy photons get returned to the surface, instead of the measly 15μ CO2 photon.
The HTE did what CO2 can’t do.
Please stop with this single, narrow absorption line nonsense. The IR spectral characteristics of CO2 are known very well, as a function of both temperature and pressure (altitude), and wavelength. There is such a thing as “pressure broadening” of spectral lines. These are all taken into account in radiative codes, including Will Happer’s recent study and all modern climate models, all of which produce essentially the same results. Your objection is not relevant, and it distracts from the real uncertainties of climate modeling. -Roy
Roy, I’m not trying to cause problems for you. I’m convinced you want to be an effective Skeptic but I’ve seen you indicate that physics is not your field. Climate science is weak in several areas. If the “science” were corrected, the CO2 nonsense would go away.
“Pressure broadening” does not help the GHE case. Pressure broadening results in increased entropy. The photon energy is spread over a slightly increased number of wavelengths, becoming more disorganized. The energy is certainly NOT increased. So my point above remains valid.
I have long ago lost the password for my email here. But, it you’re interested I’ll contact you by another email to offer what assistance I can.
This is the outward longwave spectrum for a sunny day in Wisconsin.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DXshisOUQAAroN7.jpg
Note that pressure broadening has widened the CO2 pressure band. It is between wavenumber 600 and 740 and absorbing radiation all the way across the band.
It’s too bad we don’t have a real-time graphic of OLR during the peak of the HTE, huh Ent?
Wonder why that is….
It would show the difference between a “roof” and a tiny, leaky “parasol”.
But don’t get too attached to that graphic. It’s from GISS, as far as I can tell, and is not actual data.
“The energy is certainly NOT increased. ”
CORRECT! The relevant energy — the energy emitted to space to cool off the earth as a whole — is decreased by pressure broadening (and Doppler broadening). This results in decreased energy emitted to space, and an over all warming effect on the surface.
Adding more CO2 has the same effect. Additional CO2 at the cool top of the atmosphere causes LESS radiation to space, and additional warming of the surface.
The reduced radiation to space due to CO2 is clearly visible in the graph Entropic Man posted.
wikipedia: “Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas. It absorbs and emits infrared radiation at its two infrared-active vibrational frequencies. The two wavelengths are 4.26 μm (2,347 cm−1) (asymmetric stretching vibrational mode) and 14.99 μm (667 cm−1) (bending vibrational mode).”
Yeah, the statement should include the 15 um band is approximately 300 cm-1 to 800 cm-1 but its still a narrow band when compared to the IR spectrum.
I don’t understand why you are stating there is not a narrow absorption line.
I would also like to know why you think there is not a saturation effect as the concentration of CO2 increases.
If the first 300 ppm provide 30 Wm-2 GHE and doubling the concentration of CO2 will result in a only a further 3Wm-2 how is this not due to saturation effect?
Ken, like we discussed recently logarithmic does not mean saturated.
“Ken, like we discussed recently logarithmic does not mean saturated.”
So how is a logarithmic result not due to a saturation effect?
The logarithmic result occurs because the effect is diminishing. Note that saturated means no further effect while diminishing means a smaller effect.
I suppose we’re arguing semantics.
Should I be writing ‘approaching saturation’.
I don’t disagree. But remember that most people interpret saturated as used in science as having no further effect. Examples, a salt solution becomes saturated at 360 g.L-1 or a parcel of air becomes saturated at 15 g.kg-1. And we all know that when someone says “CO2 is saturated” they interpret that as CO2 has no further effect on the temperature which is obviously false. It’s probably better to just say that CO2’s effect is logarithmic (or maybe diminishing) as concentration increases.
Ken
I’m not sure you use the same definition of saturation as the rest of us.
In the trade saturation occurs when all the Stefan-Boltzmann radiation emitted at one wavenumber is absorbed and reemitted by the atmosphere. Since half the reemission is upwards and half downwards you can detect saturation on my graph.
Look for wavenumbers at which the outward longwave radiation is half S-B radiation. You’ll find two places, one around wavenumber 700 due to CO2 and another above wavenumber 1300 due to H2O.
Note that saturation does not cap OLR due to two effects.
Firstly, increasing CO2 broadens the band, so S-B emission is absorbed at extra wavelengths on either side of the band. Increasing the band width from 2 micrometres to 4 micrometres will double the amount of S-B radiation absorbed.
Secondly increased surface temperature increases S-B emission. Saturated CO2 continues to absorb and reradiate 50% of S-B radiation. Increase S-B radiation flux by 50% from 400W/m^2 to 600W/m^2 in the C O2 absor*nation band. The measured OLR increases from 200W/m^2 to 300W/m^2 and downwelling longwave radiation warming the surface also increases by 100W/m^2.
Clint R
“Its too bad we dont have a real-time graphic of OLR during the peak of the HTE, huh Ent?
Wonder why that is. ”
Can’t you even do a web search?I
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2024JD041296
“But dont get too attached to that graphic. Its from GISS, as far as I can tell, and is not actual data.”
The graphic was drawn using Modtrans. The S-B radiation was calculated. The OLR data was measured and came from Ellingson(1996).
The paper also included this graph of downwelling longwave radiation measured at the same time.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DXshisOUQAAroN7.jpg
An opportunity to have some fun and test a prediction of the greenhouse effect theory.:–)
Briefly, the surface emits S-B radiation upwards around 15 micrometres. Some of that is absorbed by CO2 molecules and reradiated. Unabsorbed S-B radiation and upward reradiated photographing upwards and become the OLR. Downward reradiated photons warm the surface.
DWLR = S-B radiation – OLR
From the first graph: S-B radiation at wavenumber 700 is 410W/m^2 and OLR is 200W/m^2.
From the second graph DWLR at wavenumber 700 is 130W/m^2
Plug them in.
DWLR is 410 – 200 = 210W/m^2
Hmm. Observed DWLR is 40% smaller than predicted. I wonder what other factors I should include.
I don’t know what to say:
“D. Atmospheric CO2 Is Now Heavily Saturated, Which in Physics Means More CO2 Will Have Little Warming Effect.”
https://co2coalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Lindzen-Happer-Koonin-climate-science-4-24.pdf
Ken: What does “heavily” saturated mean? What does “little” warming mean? Depending upon the actual NUMBERS attached to these qualitative statements, I might very well agree with them – Roy
“What does heavily saturated mean?”
“CO2 becomes a less effective greenhouse gas at higher concentrations because of what in physics is called saturation. Each additional increase of CO2 in the atmosphere causes a smaller and smaller change in radiative forcing, or in temperature.”
“More CO2 Will Have Little Warming Effect”
Source: https://co2coalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Lindzen-Happer-Koonin-climate-science-4-24.pdf
This document is written by Happer Koonin and Lindzen.
“the actual NUMBERS”
Current CO2 GHE is about 30Wm-2. Happer and Wijngaarden state doubling CO2 from present 420 to 840 ppm will result in further reduction in direct radiation to space of 3Wm-2.
I make that out to mean less than 10% increase in the GHE component due to CO2 over the next two centuries.
I should add that the CO2 component of GHE is 30Wm-2 out of 340Wm-2 of total GHE.
3Wm-2 means less than 1% increase; too small to measure and too small to have any significant effect.
This my current understanding of CO2 effect on climate.
https://oz4caster.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/d1-gfs-gta-daily-2024-08-10.gif
https://oz4caster.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/d4-gfs-gta-daily-2014-2024-08-10.gif
Making 10 or more comments a day on the board like this is a pretty good sign you have a mental problem
Not sure if that counts as an insult, but surely the threads that go on between two people fighting who gets to say the last word should be snipped. People feed repeats of their arguments which they refer to ‘as I explained to you long time ago’.
Don’t do it. Don’t repeat. Stop reacting to trolls. Time is money. Your time is not worth the repeating back and forth.
Dr Spencer wrote:
Yes, and Yes.
Elon Evangelizes
http://www.transterrestrial.com/2024/08/11/elon-evangelizes/
But as with Captain Kirk, why does God need a Starship?
Another related issue, why does God not like NASA?
I think God exist- that’s not the issue, having faith in God, that’s another issue.
And I don’t trust the angels. The baseball team, also.
I see a logic error. Earth’s atmosphere is not at all similar to a green house. 90% of CO2 resides in the troposphere. Convection, jet streams, warm/cold fronts, etc. allow heat to “escape” with the movement of air (and 99.9% of our atmosphere is nitrogen and oxygen, not CO2). Hard to believe the higher altitudes have enough CO2 density to measurably slow IR radiation away from Earth.
“Hard to believe the higher altitudes have enough CO2 density to measurably slow IR radiation away from Earth.”
And yet the data is clear and obvious. Satellites measure this all the time.’
When people find something in science “hard to believe”, that is usually an indication that it is time to study more science.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outgoing_longwave_radiation
“and 99.9% of our atmosphere is nitrogen and oxygen”
About 1% is argon. About 1% is H20. So about 98% is N2 & O2.
Casey: Hard to believe
Some people probably find it hard to believe that 5mg of a substance cannot have a measurable effect on the human body. Afterall 5mg is but 0.01 ppm of a typical person. But sure enough 5mg of Fentanyl is enough to kill most people. My point is that argument by incredulity isn’t a great avenue to take in the pursuit of truth.
Elon Musk wanted to send a greenhouse to Mars. As recall 30 km up from Earth surface, is similar to the vacuum of Mars.
How much air would need to be in the Mars greenhouse to make it, “work”?
Generally, I would assume one wouldn’t need to add pressure, but I would want some pressure for various reasons.
Mars has .098 psi of pressure, and it seem I would want a pressure high enough so water didn’t boil at low temperature.
Water at 30 C creates pressure of 0.0419 atm.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vapour_pressure_of_water
times 14.7 is 0.61593 psi. So have greenhouse able to withstand an air pressure over 2 psi, and operate at about 1 psi.
In terms of human breathing with a oxygen mask, this called Armstrong limit:
“The U.S. Standard Atmospheric model sets the Armstrong pressure at an altitude of 63,000 feet (19,202 m).”
So I would want it more presurre than Armstrong limit- though Musk plan was not to send humans, but just test greenhouse on Mars.
Wiki: A pressure of 6.3 kPathe Armstrong limitis about 1/16 of the standard sea-level atmospheric pressure of 101.3 kilopascals (760 mmHg).”
So 1 psi is high enough, and plants can live below the Armstrong limit.
The Bearer of Bad News
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5_4hUK8OfjM
I brought up a logic error, and in response, I got one weak response and one more logic errors. Sometimes “hard to believe” is “hard to believe”. Also, great comeback, 98% vs 99.9%. Argon and H2O really blew my point away. Next, we’re getting an even bigger logic error, comparing a chemical reaction in a living human body with molecules of CO2 in Earth’s atmosphere.
So, it seems you make greenhouse which can float in Earth, it has ablative floor and inflatable balloon to fly in Mars atmosphere, and then allows one land somewhere on Mars surface. And more expensive, you put starlink satellites in Mars orbit. So a mobile phone in the greenhouse can allow one communicate with the greenhouse.
Of course if you want to put in a particular spot, Hellas Basin, or on the top of highest mountain on Mars, it could be more complicated. But by having starlink in Mars orbit, it could allow other missions which are more complicated.
Of course you don’t have land on Mars surface, to have greenhouse on Mars, you have greenhouse floating in Mars atmosphere for a year or more before landing on the surface.
In other news, CNN is reporting a list of cities that will be too hot to host the Olympics in the year 2050, and others that will still be okay. I did not see any reference the fact that science does not predict the future and that studies are always speculative and often very unreliable. This is all being reported as verified fact based on “SOURCE: CARBONPLAN”.
The hoax continues.
After this year’s opening ceremony I am in favor of cancelling the Olympics.
There is not a hoax. There are legitimate studies that reveal the assumptions in the report, and there are media with nobody in their editorial staff who have the slightest clue about the validity of science studies. If there was a study about the effects of a meteor hitting NY City, they would report that a meteor will soon hit NY. Then after the push back from knowledgeable people claiming it was only a study, they would retract the story. Very few people push back on fake climate studies.
SOLAR MINIMUM UPDATE
https://carbonplan.org/research/extreme-heat-explainer
The project takes Urban Heat Effects into account, which ought to bring joy in the hearts of contrarians who worked on that issue for so long.
These sickos hate Carbon, the element contained in all life forms. They hate life. So what element do they like? Arsenic?
> These sickos hate Carbon
Res ipsa loquitur.
The Bill Walton Show | CO2 The Miracle Molecules with Dr Will Happer and Greg Wrightstone
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/08/10/the-bill-walton-show-co2-the-miracle-molecules-with-dr-will-happer-and-greg-wrightstone/
…
“Bill Walton: But what they say, what that great scientist from Harvard, Al Gore, reliably tells us is that CO2 is driving temperatures through the roof, and the oceans will begin foaming I cant remember his speech at the time, but it was going to be terrible. CO2 is supposedly driving temperatures up, leading to droughts and famine. Youre saying its just the opposite?
Dr. William Happer: Its nonsense. Were in a warming period now that began around 1800, maybe a little earlier, as we came out of the Little Ice Age, which was a very cold period in the 1500s and 1600s. Most of the warming weve seen over the last 100 years or so is almost all due to natural causes. Theres probably been a little contribution from CO2, but its not very much because CO2 is not a very potent greenhouse gas; its a puny greenhouse gas. Its heavily saturated and cant do much more than its already done.”
Al Gore of course, flunked his class, and they just kidding about him being a scientist.
Fireside Chat with SpaceX President & COO Gwynne Shotwell\
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=66a8XFet4ac
Gwynne Shotwell keeps saying Mars is fixer upper, and doesn’t say the Moon is a fixer upper.
Or she is lunatic {space cadet who likes the Moon}. I tend to think the Moon is a fixer upper {Moon needs space elevator and needs mass drivers, before that.
The only thing Mars needs is mineable water. No mineable Mars water, forget about it- it’s not habitable. But Mars doesn’t need mineable if it export water from Space [there many Earth ocean of water in space- and only matter of time, that this water will be cheaper than Earth water. So slightly before that time is reached, if Mars lacks mineable water {and can’t have settlements, Mars could import water, and then have settlements. The Moon it this same time, can build space elevator and import trillions of tons of water from the rest of space- and get hydropower from dropping the water using the lunar space elevator.
But if Mars has mineable, it not a fixer upper.
Nobody is going to Mars
Nobody knows where on Mars there going to live.
NASA spends some time and effort arguing over where to have a Mars base.
I tend to think NASA should argue about where the first base will be, then next one, and the next one.
But you shouldn’t do that with a human settlement on Mars, though maybe one should do it, if want a settlement on one of Mars moons. Pick one moon or perhaps both moons. And then a place on Mars.
“Mars’ moons are among the smallest in the solar system. Phobos is a bit larger than Deimos, and orbits only 3,700 miles (6,000 kilometers) above the Martian surface. No known moon orbits closer to its planet. It whips around Mars three times a day, while the more distant Deimos takes 30 hours for each orbit. Phobos is gradually spiraling inward, drawing about six feet (1.8 meters) closer to the planet each century. Within 50 million years, it will either crash into Mars or break up and form a ring around the planet.”
https://science.nasa.gov/mars/moons/facts/
There is still some time, left.
“To someone standing on the Mars-facing side of Phobos, Mars would take up a large part of the sky. And people may one day do just that. Scientists have discussed the possibility of using one of the Martian moons as a base from which astronauts could observe the Red Planet and launch robots to its surface, while shielded by miles of rock from cosmic rays and solar radiation for nearly two-thirds of every orbit.”
Hmm, I wonder what the suborbital velocity which needed to get to Phobos from Mars surface. It seems it’s similar suborbital trajectories that nukes use.
So, maybe, just one, Phobos.
Some things. If one can mine 10,000 tons of lunar water per year, lunar water would be mineable. Or one could sell lunar water for $100 per kg. If one instead, quickly get to the point of mining lunar at 100,000 tons per year, lunar water is more mineable and one sell lunar water at about $10 per kg.
It my opinion one needs to sell Mars water at $1 per ton {cubic meter]. Or Mars water needs to cheaper than lunar rocket, or lunar water is about making rocket fuel, and Mars water is about farming and residential use.
Now water at $1 per ton on Earth, very expensive. Sort like only way to get water, is with bottled water type price for water.
Anyhow, so for get water this cheap, it has to get to the point of mining a million tons of water per year.
Which tiny amount compared to what people on Earth consume, and people on Earth have stuff lakes and dams.
Or Mars settlement need lakes or water. And everyone going to Mars, is going to want real estate somewhere near a Mars lake.
Also one can live under a lake on Mars, which would result in having less radiation as people living on Earth, get.
Gbaikie, selling water to mars? That’s one way to solve the sea level rises, probably a bit cheaper than some of the net zero ideas.
–Anon for a reason says:
August 15, 2024 at 5:46 AM
Gbaikie, selling water to mars? Thats one way to solve the sea level rises, probably a bit cheaper than some of the net zero ideas.–
A part of Mars being a place for some people to live, say more than 10,000 people, will require Mars to export water. And the highest price for Mars exported water, would be Venus orbit.
In the beginning, say first 10 years, Venus orbit could buying anyone’s water for about about $100 per kg or $100,000 per ton. And that would be very cheap water for Venus orbit.
Evenually, Venus orbit could get water as cheap as Earth’s water, and that might be when more than million people are living in Venus orbit. Or our solar system has far more mineable water as compared to Earth, and it could as cheap, but far more cheaper than what Earth could export into space.
Or it’s hard to leave Earth with anything.
And Mars needs to use Venus orbit, in order to be connected to Earth and the rest of our solar system.
Venus orbit is a better hub for our solar system than any of Earth’s orbits.
Mars has launch window of 2.1 years to Earth, but if Mars uses Venus orbit it’s about 1 year vs 2.1 years. And you can travel a shorter distance using Venus orbit to get to Earth from Mars, and get to Mars from Earth. If there is rocket fuel at Venus orbit.
One could say, Venus orbit has the sunlight, and it just need water, to make cheap rocket fuel.
Earth surface is a very bad place to get solar energy for electrical energy- Mars surface is better. The Lunar surface is much better than Mars, Earth high orbit is better than Lunar surface, And Venus orbit is much better than any Earth orbit.
So in terms of where billions of people “go”, it’s eventually going to be, Venus orbit. But it could take a century or more.
The near term, question, which could be answered within perhaps, 10 years, is does the Moon or Mars export the most amount of water to Venus orbit.
The best guess is Mars could have enough water and have cheap enough water, to export more water to Venus as compared to the Moon. But in century of time, both Mars and Moon could import far more water than they exported, in next 1/2 century.
One could most easily import water to the Moon and do it with something one could roughly call, a Space Elevator. And space elevator slows down the water, like hydro dam. And basically reverses what we call gravity loss.
You don’t want to land slowly from lunar orbit to lunar surface, because you get a lot of gravity loss [you use too much rocket power. With dropping water to lunar surface, to get most amount of energy from it, you have water slowly “land” on lunar surface, slow being a constant 50 to 100 mph from thousands of km above the lunar surface. Coming from Earth/Moon L-1, which the point hangs about 60,000 km above lunar equator, but lunar gravity gets stronger a few thousand km above the lunar surface.
Or you have weak gravity but you have “a dam” with thousand km difference in elevation. Dams on Earth are about .1 km difference. Or if didn’t brake/slow down this water it impacts the lunar surface around 2 km/sec [4473.87 mph}, and if slowly land it, you get gravity gain- you get more energy than with water going 4473.87 mph.
Mars has more gravity than Moon, or it’s harder to make space elevator, but you could more energy from each ton of water dropped.
SpaceX Will Send Humans To Polar Orbit!
–SpaceX stays BUSY! Yesterday they announced they’ll be launching 4 people on a historic mission over Earth’s poles in late 2024.–
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWpzU8L7UOY
Ellie in Space
Another story:
There Are Oceans Of Water On Mars. Theyre Just Too Deep To Tap.
By Keith Cowing
https://astrobiology.com/2024/08/there-are-oceans-of-water-on-mars-theye-just-too-deep-to-tap.html
–Using seismic activity to probe the interior of Mars, geophysicists have found evidence for a large underground reservoir of liquid water enough to fill oceans on the planets surface.
The data from NASAs Insight lander allowed the scientists to estimate that the amount of groundwater could cover the entire planet to a depth of between 1 and 2 kilometers, or about a mile.
While thats good news for those tracking the fate of water on the planet after its oceans disappeared more than 3 billion years ago, the reservoir wont be of much use to anyone trying to tap into it to supply a future Mars colony. Its located in tiny cracks and pores in rock in the middle of the Martian crust, between 11.5 and 20 kilometers (7 to 13 miles) below the surface. Even on Earth, drilling a hole a kilometer deep is a challenge.–
One thing about Mars or Moon, there stories digging to center of Earth.
Which are silly.
But seems on Mars and/or Moon you could go a lot deeper than you could on Earth.
But you might not need to use a boring machine to travel to their depths {but why can’t boring machine drill 20 km down? on Mars??] there could deep natural tunnels going to great depth.
Now, if your tunnels are filled with water at some point, you could get a starship to bring submarine to continue your exploration of the cave.
How does the roof work? A hurricane, for example, carries water vapor into the tropopause, where cloud tops radiate at about -80 C. You can see that the temperature in a hurricane decreases with height throughout the column and reaches its lowest value consistently at 100 hPa. Another example is the oceans in the tropics. When the surface temperature approaches 30 C, high convection is immediately triggered and the surface temperature of the open ocean never reaches 31 C. Is this by any chance the influence of the density of the atmosphere?
To the contrary of what lying climate shisters are telling us , the climate haws a number of powerful negative feedbacks
In fact, the thin troposphere protects us from being burned by the sun in summer and freezing in winter.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_MEAN_JAS_NH_2024.png
Meanwhile, autumn in the northern hemisphere is already imminent. In summer, the temperature will not rise at the pole due to the Earth’s orbital position.
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
If indeed the amount of ozone in the stratosphere is decreasing, the role of water vapor and clouds is increasing, as they can absorb high-energy UVB radiation, which strongly heats solid surfaces. We can feel this on ourselves.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_ALL_EQ_2024.png
Dr. Roy – As you can tell, Dr. Roy is grumpy this morning.
Frankly, I’m surprised you put up with it. I can only imagine you don’t read the comments assiduously for reasons of mental-health hygiene.
E.B. plays the innocent bystander while posting unpleasant drivel. To preserve your mental health, avoid his comments.
As far as I know, the NASA CERES project is designed to measure the Earth’s energy imbalance. As CO2 concentration increases, I would expect the outgoing LWIR to decrease in the ~13-17m range (CO2 main band), while the resulting warming should increase the rest of the outgoing LWIR (4-100m). Which satellite measures between ~14-16m? Or is this not possible for technical reasons?
CERES measures the total of the whole IR spectrum (OLR). Yes, increasing CO2 will decrease the emitted OLR, but the resulting warming has positive feedback(s) which increase the OLR even more than CO2 decreased it. Also, any non-CO2 source of warming would increase OLR.
Thanks for your answer. You mentioned W.Happer’s paper. Happer compares his radiation model in Fig. 15 with the Nimbus4 satellite data from 1970. Don’t we have better newer data? I cannot find a satellite whose main task is to quantify the CO2-related energy imbalance. Is this not technically possible? AIRS measures from 645/cm – ~2000/cm. About 1/3 of the main CO2 band is missing, right? Maybe I’m imagining this too simply? But why is the 2,16w/m2 CO2 forcings from the IPCC an estimate? No data?
@Eike
You can not measure said 2.16W/m2 CO2 forcing with a satellite. As the theory goes (not that I would endorse it), it is the sum “fluxes” (up and down) at the tropopause. There are no satellites in the tropopause..
For further discussion see my three comments here.
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2024/08/yes-the-greenhouse-effect-is-like-a-real-greenhouse-and-other-odds-and-ends/#comment-1682826
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2024/08/yes-the-greenhouse-effect-is-like-a-real-greenhouse-and-other-odds-and-ends/#comment-1682979
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2024/08/yes-the-greenhouse-effect-is-like-a-real-greenhouse-and-other-odds-and-ends/#comment-1683055
Eike,
Read [Shortwave and longwave radiative contributions to
global warming under increasing CO2] by Donohoe et al. 2014. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1412190111
Basically any warming whether it is caused by CO2 or something results in a feedback in which Earth’s albedo decreases resulting in more ASR. Keeping in mind the 1st law of thermodynamics which states that EEI = ASR – OLR it is easy to see why OLR must increase.
Thanks for the paper. So If I understand this correctly? CO2 induces a small reduction in OLR and this small reduction is accumulating over time because earth is slowly responding to it. The energy it self comes from the Sun.
IF I look at the UAH TLT data I see huge effects from El Ninos, and a small trend over time. Bob Tisdale’s opinion on the 1997/1998 super El Nino is, if I understand correctly, that all the energy for it was built up in a single year before.If that’s true, I can’t decide. But why is, according to Bob, the energy released after a single year in case of El nino and why is it accumulating over time in case of CO2?
Yes. CO2 or any gas species that impedes the transmission of energy reduces OLR. The Earth then starts accumulating energy and warms. The warming then causes other effects like melting of ice and changing cloud patterns which causes a decrease in albedo thus increasing ASR. Figure 1d is most like what is playing out. Notice that OLR (green) does initially drop below its pre-forced value, but it quickly recovers and even increases beyond its pre-forced value as a result of ASR increasing.
Yes. UAH TLT is sensitive to the ENSO cycles more so than the surface temperature. What happens is that the La Nina phase is a period where there is a higher than average rate of heat uptake and a lower than average rate of heat transfer to the atmosphere. El Nino is the opposite of this. This is why you see UAH cool during a La Nina and warm during an El Nino. This, along with other factors, creates short term variability superimposed on the long term trend induced by GHGs. ENSO has a net neutral effect because the swings of positive and negative phases averages out to zero. GHGs are net positive because they continue to build up in the atmosphere resulting a persistent positive radiative force.
I created the following graph to help people visualize how ENSO, volcanic activity, aerosols, CO2, and solar output can combine to produce both the long term upward trend and short term variability. The model suggests that ENSO has a 0.16 C per 1 ONI effect on UAH TLT. It’s important to note that the model doesn’t prove CO2 is the cause of the upward trend, but it does falsify the hypothesis that there is no correlation between it and the upward trend.
https://i.imgur.com/eFWhIt0.png
Fossils from Greenlands icy heart reveal it was a green tundra covered in flowers less than 1 million years ago
https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/
“But a new fossil discovery, described in a study published Aug. 5 in the journal PNAS, provides the first direct evidence that the center not just the edges of Greenlands ice sheet melted away in the recent geological past, according to a statement from the University of Vermont.”
Hmm, it seems Greenland had a big lake, not too long ago.
Poppies grew not only in the deserts of California, they also grew in Greenland.
However, the most spectacular find was an impeccably preserved Arctic poppy. The team was surprised by the find. “The original plan for the sample was to measure isotopes [carbon dating], we didn’t know we would find fossils,” – Bierman said.
A slow drop in temperature in the central equatorial Pacific can be seen, but it’s not La Nia yet.
https://i.ibb.co/3k4Fygv/cdas-sflux-ssta-global-1.png
Me like Bart Simpson writing “I must not insult grumpy Roy. I must not..” 😉
First thing: MS64 were wrong. The idea of two molecules, purely trading radiation, heating each other in the process, is a logical fallacy. It is like I give you a dollar, you give it back to me, and after doing so a thousand times, we both had made a thousand dollars!? But that is exactly what happens between the molecules of the lower atmosphere and the surface. They trade radiation with a net zero effect. And of course the same is true for back- and forth radiaton within the atmosphere.
Beyond that it is a theory that can easily be tested. Only ~160W/m2 of solar radiation make it to the surface. If “back radiation” was heating the surface, that would need to be far more important than solar input. As I recall MS64 suggested some 332K “radiative equ. temperature (not 70K warmer as observed, as that would make 358K), but that was just a thought model, not based on reasonable data. Anyhow, for that you’d need a radiative input of ~690W/m2, or 530W/m2 from “back radiation” alone.
That heat would then constantly escape by convection. It then logically follows, the surface would get heated beyond its given temperature day AND night, and would constantly require convective cooling just to maintain its lower than radiative equilibrium temperature. So we only just need to answer the question if there is constant convective cooling occurring?
There are no thermal uplifts in the night. Once the sun is gone, the surface temperature cools much faster than the atmospheric temperature above and soon enough we have an inversion, every night. Such inversions are totally incompatible with convection. And so we know, the surface is not getting radiatively heated in the absence of the sun. MS64 is indeed falsified.
Second: Venus. The atmosphere of Venus is pretty much “saturated”, though I do not like the term, or the thinking behind it. Its surface emits over 16,000W/m2, but only about 130W/m2 make it into space, with basically all of it from the higher layers of the atmosphere. So the atmosphere has to be at least 99.9%+ opaque.
Second plus: let us combine the previous two points. What if we apply MS64 on Venus? The “back radiative heating” of the surface would need to be astronomic and accordingly the convective processes to cool that surface, resulting in very strong winds, or storms rather. So what is the wind condition there?
“On the other hand, the wind speed becomes increasingly slower as the elevation from the surface decreases, with the breeze barely reaching the speed of 2.8 m/s (≈10 km/h or 6.2 mph) on the surface.” (Wikipedia on the atmosphere of Venus)
Third: What Happer did is not very exciting, unless you stress the “high resolution” models he used (but that is “industry standard” anyhow). You get the same result causally from modtran. Way more important is what he did not do. He did not include clouds, which I have done and is not that hard. And he did not consider how “climate science” actually derives CO2 forcing. There it is the sum of “fluxes” at the tropopause instead of just the delta TOA.
The 2xCO2 forcing is 3W/m2 dTOA for clear skies. It is ~2.15W/m2 including clouds TOA. And it is ~3.7W/m2 including clouds with the tropopause flux approach. Happer just stuck to the plain vanilla version.
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2024/08/yes-the-greenhouse-effect-is-like-a-real-greenhouse-and-other-odds-and-ends/#comment-1682836
Arkady Ivanovich says:
” E. Schaffer: ”MS64 were wrong. The idea of two molecules, purely trading radiation, heating each other in the process, is a logical fallacy.”
This: Speaking as one who has read the 1964 paper by Syukuro Manabe and Richard Strickler (MS64) carefully, and repeatedly, I can confidently say that the assertion oversimplifies and misinterprets the scientific principles discussed in this seminal work of climate science. . . .”
LMAO! This sounds anything Arkady as the argument you just laid out is strikingly similar to the arguments by your side vs Gerlich and Tscheushner.
You criticize the notion that what ”media science” has been selling to the public for 30 years, namely the ”3rd grader radiation model” is anything a scientist would believe.
That’s the substance of the first 3 times on your list. Then in item 4 you throw out the word statistics. . .but of course without any real statistics being offered up. And you conclude with item 5 of claiming ”such mechanisms is(are) well-supported by both theoretical and empirical evidence.” and like M&W there is no mention of what that means.
Its certainly isn’t wrong of critics to mock what ”media science” has been selling for decades especially in post where you agree it’s a mockery.
But nothing comes after that to explain in detail why you believe it to be so other than via an appeal to authority with no references to anything that blueprints out how it works, statistically or otherwise.
“MS64 were wrong. The idea of two molecules, purely trading radiation, heating each other in the process, is a logical fallacy.”
Speaking as one who has read the 1964 paper by Syukuro Manabe and Richard Strickler (MS64) carefully, and repeatedly, I can confidently say that the assertion oversimplifies and misinterprets the scientific principles discussed in this seminal work of climate science.
1/ The assertion misrepresents the concept of radiative transfer. In atmospheric science, the term “radiative transfer” refers to the emission, a b s o r p t i o n, and scattering of radiation by gases, aerosols, and clouds, not just individual molecules.
2/ Radiation emitted by one molecule can be absorbed by another, but the net effect depends on the relative energy states and the thermodynamic equilibrium of the system.
3/ The claim of a “logical fallacy” seems to stem from a misunderstanding of how radiative transfer works in a thermodynamic system.
4/ Molecules do emit and absorb radiation according to quantum mechanical principles; however, the focus in MS64 is on the statistical behavior of many molecules, not on the interaction between two isolated molecules.
5/ Radiative transfer between molecules is a well-understood physical process, and the heating of the atmosphere through such mechanisms is well-supported by both theoretical and empirical evidence. The assertion reflects a misunderstanding of the complexities of atmospheric science and the scope of MS64’s research.
Reads like AI generated blather.
Thanks.
Signed,
AI (Arkady Ivanovich)
Energy is what matters.
Technology & innovation are like tiny stowaways on the super tanker of the human enterprise that take credit for the journey without acknowledging the massive fossil fuel engines underfoot.
Further to Energy is what matters.
Chevron announced first production today (August 12, 2024) at its $5.7-billion deepwater Anchor project in the US Gulf of Mexico (GOM).
The US supermajor is celebrating the deployment of the industry’s first high-pressure systems designed to handle wellhead pressures of up to 20,000 psi, known as 20K technologies.
The Anchor field, located 140 miles offshore Louisiana in approximately 5,000 ft of water, will ultimately include seven wells connected to a semisubmersible floating production unit (FPU) with a nameplate capacity of 75,000 B/D of oil and 28 MMscf/D of gas. Chevron has identified potential modifications that could increase this capacity by nearly 15%, bringing it up to 86,000 B/D.
Chevron estimates that the development, which targets the Lower Tertiary Wilcox trend, holds recoverable reserves of up to 440 million BOE.
In a series of new technical papers Chevron shared details on many of the industry firsts that were key to realizing the Anchor project which was discovered in 2014.
1/ The Transocean Deepwater Titan drillship began operations in the GOM in June 2023 as the second eighth-generation drillship ever built but holds claim to being the first ever rated for 20K operations. Originally planned to be a 15K-rated vessel, the rig was upgraded on Chevron’s request to host two 20,000 psi blowout preventers (BOPs). Combined with the lower marine riser package, the BOP stack weighs in at more than 1.1 million lbs.
The BOPs were not needed to drill the wells-for that, 15,000 psi BOPs would have sufficed-but they were required for well control during the completion phase when hydrocarbons are most likely to flow to surface.
2/ The rig boasts a hoisting capacity of 3.4 million lbs which is around 20% greater than the highest-specification seventh-generation drillship.
The extra muscle is needed due to the extreme weight associated with running more than 6 miles of high-pressure production casing into the ultradeep wells.
3/ Some of the project’s wireline completion tools even surpassed the 20K-rating and were upgraded to withstand bottomhole conditions of up to 28,500 psi. This package includes tractors along with tools for milling, well cleaning, and fishing.
4/ Chevron built a custom-designed 36,500-ft-long coiled tubing spool. Needed to clean proppant out of wellbores post-fracturing, the company claims the coiled tubing unit is unmatched in its high-strength specifications.
5/ Chevron and its service partners developed a first-of-its-kind subsea package called an integrated manifold and pump station (IMPS). The IMPS eliminates the need for several individual subsea systems along with their installation costs.
6/ Other technologies that Chevron adopted for the first time include the use of real-time ultrasonic chemical injection metering valves and wellhead-integrated multiphase flowmeters.
7/ According to one of Chevron’s newly shared papers, Anchor field could have been developed without using 20K-rated systems.
The maximum shut-in wellhead pressure expected at Anchor is around 16,700 psi. As mentioned, the highest pressures would be experienced not during drilling but in the completion phase when the reservoir is primed with large volumes of fracturing fluids and proppant. All this means that project-specific equipment rated up to 17,000 psi would have been sufficient.
Chevron elected to develop a full 20K capability wherever possible to further advance industry capability, ensuring the technology would be suitable for potential future projects with subsea maximum shut-in pressures up to 20,000 psi.
Tied to its decision to push for a higher-than-needed pressure rating-and the new papers shared-is Chevron’s philosophy that knowledge sharing is a tide that lifts all boats.
The company said it is sharing what it knows about 20K technology development to lower the cost of entry for other operators considering similar projects. In turn, Chevron expects to see a reduction in its own equipment costs thanks to increased supply and demand as it pursues future 20K projects.
Excellent news. The walrus population up here is very happy (we like using high-tech boats and skidoos).
BREAKING:
US crude oil production has officially hit a record 13.4 million barrels per day.
Daily oil production has increased by 22% over the last 4 years.
Since 2008, production has skyrocketed 350% from ~3.8 million barrels per day.
US oil production has moved in a straight line higher since the 2020 low.
The US is now the world’s largest oil producer, exceeding Russia’s output by ~35% and Saudi Arabia by ~38%.
The US is dominating global oil production.
As OPEC implements production cuts, US production is replacing it.
Oh, I was reliably told by MAGA that President Biden destroyed the oil industry.
He /attempted/ to give the impression he’s acting on, while knowing he can’t really ‘decarbonize’ the world economy. But he did the professionals producing energy and plastics quite annoyed. Learn to code? Maybe others should learn what is bad PR. His policies were anti pipeline, pump the oil price up.
Your blanket analogy is good though, but I assume there are other factors in.
Eric wrote:
If Biden had intended to “pump the oil price up”, he would not have released about 1 million barrels of oil per day from the SPR for a year, cutting the reserve by about half. He also closed a reserve of emergency fuels in the Northeast, which Congress forced him to do, releasing transport fuels into the market, causing a slight drop in local market prices.
The Great Permian Reshuffling.
There’s been a frenzy of M&A activity in the Permian Basin -the nation’s most prolific shale play- the past couple of years, and in recent months many of the acquiring companies have reviewed their expanded base of assets, determined which acreage, wells and future well sites are core to their business going forward, and initiated the process of divesting the rest.
At the same time, others -including some producers that were part of the merger mania- are on the hunt for what they see as underappreciated assets with the potential to shine.
We’re in the early stages of a rapid-fire exchange of upstream assets.
So, no, President Biden didn’t destroy the oil industry.
A tropical storm is moving in the Caribbean Sea south of Puerto Rico.
https://i.ibb.co/vXZPnX1/goes16-ir-05-L-202408140325.gif
The storm will gain strength after a recent strong geomagnetic storm and may approach the east coast of the US.
A tropical storm is passing over Puerto Rico and approaching the Dominican Republic.
https://i.ibb.co/Xkc4Ryp/Screenshot-2024-08-14-14-26-32.png
Stronger solar winds in recent weeks and
the end of SSW in the south.
https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole10_sh.gif
My first post here ever.
I was having a little fun with ChatGPT today. Id like to share the exchange and see if anyone understands whats happening.
What would the surface of the earth be like if there were no greenhouse gases?
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
If there were no greenhouse gases in Earth’s atmosphere, the surface of the planet would be drastically different, primarily due to the lack of the greenhouse effect, which plays a crucial role in maintaining Earth’s current climate. Heres what the Earth might be like:
Drastically Colder Temperatures: Without greenhouse gases, the Earth would lose heat rapidly. The average surface temperature would drop from the current 15C (59F) to around -18C (0F). This temperature is below the freezing point of water, which would have profound effects on the planet’s environment.
Frozen Oceans: With such low temperatures, most of the Earth’s oceans would freeze over. The extent of this freezing would likely be massive, covering large portions of the planet in ice. Only the deepest parts of the ocean might remain liquid due to geothermal heat from the Earth’s interior, but the surface would be predominantly ice.
Altered Atmosphere: Greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and water vapor also play roles in regulating atmospheric processes. Without them, the atmosphere might be thinner, drier, and more susceptible to drastic changes in temperature between day and night, similar to the conditions on the Moon or Mars.
No Liquid Water: Liquid water would be scarce on the surface, making it difficult for life as we know it to survive. The hydrological cycle would be greatly disrupted, and the Earth’s climate would likely be much more arid.
Reduced Habitability: Life on Earth depends on relatively stable temperatures and liquid water. Without greenhouse gases, it is unlikely that the Earth would support complex life forms. If any life did exist, it would likely be confined to extreme environments, like deep-sea hydrothermal vents, where temperatures might still be warm enough to sustain it.
No Weather as We Know It: Weather patterns are largely driven by the differential heating of the Earth’s surface and the distribution of greenhouse gases. Without these gases, weather would be much less dynamic, possibly limited to stark contrasts between freezing nights and slightly warmer days.
In summary, without greenhouse gases, Earth would be a much colder, more barren, and inhospitable place, likely devoid of the complex ecosystems that currently thrive on the planet. The greenhouse effect is essential for maintaining the moderate temperatures that allow life to flourish on Earth.
You said:
How could there be frozen oceans?
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
You’re correct to question the idea of frozen oceans in the absence of greenhouse gases. The formation of oceans in the first place would require liquid water, which is unlikely to exist without the warming effects of greenhouse gases. Here’s a more accurate breakdown of what would happen to Earth’s water:
No Liquid Water Formation: Without greenhouse gases, Earth’s surface temperature would have likely been too cold from the beginning to allow liquid water to form. This means that, in this hypothetical scenario, liquid water might never have existed on Earth’s surface.
Ice, If Any: If there were any water on Earth initially, it would exist as ice or possibly as water vapor in the atmosphere. The lack of greenhouse gases would prevent sufficient warming to melt any ice, so Earth could have been an icy planet from the start.
A “Snowball Earth” Scenario: Earth might resemble the “Snowball Earth” hypothesis, where the planet’s surface is entirely or almost entirely frozen. However, even this ancient Earth period had some greenhouse gases, which allowed for eventual warming and the retreat of ice.
No Stable Oceans: Without the greenhouse effect, the Earth’s atmosphere would be too cold to sustain liquid oceans. Instead, any water vapor in the atmosphere might condense and freeze, contributing to surface ice. However, without the initial presence of greenhouse gases, this water might not have existed in liquid form at all.
So, to clarify, in a world with no greenhouse gases, the Earth’s surface would likely have been too cold to ever support liquid water or oceans. The planet might have been an ice-covered world, or if water was present only in the form of ice, never transitioning to the liquid phase needed to form oceans.
You said:
how could there be water on a planet with no greenhouse gases?
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
If a planet had no greenhouse gases, the existence of water, especially in liquid form, would be highly improbable. Greenhouse gases play a critical role in maintaining temperatures that allow water to exist in its liquid state on Earth. Here’s a more detailed explanation:
Formation of Water: Water on a planet typically forms during its early history when the planet is still cooling. Water molecules can come from various sources, including outgassing from volcanic activity or delivery via comets and asteroids. For liquid water to persist, the planet needs to have a temperature range that prevents it from either evaporating completely or freezing solid.
Importance of Greenhouse Gases: Greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, water vapor, and methane, trap heat in a planet’s atmosphere. This trapped heat raises the surface temperature, creating conditions that allow liquid water to exist. On Earth, this effect keeps average temperatures well above freezing.
No Greenhouse Gases, No Liquid Water: Without greenhouse gases, any water that might be present on the planet would quickly freeze, as the surface temperatures would be far too low to sustain liquid water. This would be similar to the conditions found on Mars or the Moon, where the lack of a substantial atmosphere and greenhouse effect leads to extremely cold surface temperatures.
Possible Water States:
Ice: If there were no greenhouse gases, the planet’s temperature would be so low that any water present would likely exist as ice.
Water Vapor: In some cases, water might exist as vapor, but only if the planet’s surface were heated enough by other means (such as proximity to a star or internal geothermal activity). However, this vapor would likely escape into space over time due to the lack of atmospheric pressure and temperature regulation.
Earth’s Early Atmosphere: On early Earth, the presence of greenhouse gases was crucial in preventing the planet from freezing over, allowing liquid water to form and remain stable. Without these gases, Earth’s early oceans would have likely frozen solid or never formed at all.
In summary, without greenhouse gases, a planet would struggle to retain heat, leading to a surface that is too cold for liquid water to exist. Water, if present at all, would be frozen, or the conditions would be such that water never condensed from vapor in the first place. Therefore, the absence of greenhouse gases would make the presence of stable, liquid water on a planet highly unlikely.
You said:
if there are no greenhouse gases, how can there be water?
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
In a scenario where there are no greenhouse gases, the presence of waterespecially liquid waterwould be highly improbable. Heres why:
1. Water in the Universe:
Water as a Molecule: Water (H₂O) is a common molecule in the universe, found in various forms such as ice, liquid, or vapor. It can exist on a planet regardless of the presence of greenhouse gases, depending on the environmental conditions.
2. Role of Greenhouse Gases:
Temperature Regulation: Greenhouse gases are crucial for trapping heat in a planet’s atmosphere, keeping the surface temperature within a range that allows liquid water to exist. Without these gases, a planet’s surface would likely be much colder.
Preventing Water from Freezing: On Earth, greenhouse gases maintain an average temperature of about 15C (59F). Without them, the planets average temperature would drop to around -18C (0F), causing any existing liquid water to freeze.
3. States of Water Without Greenhouse Gases:
Ice: In the absence of greenhouse gases, if water were present on a planet, it would likely exist as ice due to the lower temperatures.
Water Vapor: If the planet were close enough to its star, water might exist as vapor in the atmosphere. However, without greenhouse gases to trap heat, this vapor could easily escape into space over time.
No Liquid Water: Liquid water, as seen on Earth, would not be stable on a planet without greenhouse gases because the necessary temperatures to keep it in liquid form would not be sustained.
4. Potential Sources of Water:
Ice from Comets or Asteroids: Water ice could be delivered to a planet by comets or asteroids. However, without greenhouse gases, this ice would remain frozen on the surface or sublimate into vapor, depending on the planet’s proximity to its star.
Geothermal Heat: In some rare cases, geothermal heat from a planet’s interior could create localized pockets of liquid water beneath the surface. This is unlikely to support large bodies of liquid water, especially on the surface, without greenhouse gases.
5. Conclusion:
Without greenhouse gases, the planet would be too cold to support liquid water on its surface. Water, if it existed, would primarily be found as ice or, in some extreme cases, as vapor in a very thin atmosphere. The stable, warm conditions necessary for liquid water would not be present, making the presence of stable bodies of liquid water highly unlikely.
So, in a world without greenhouse gases, water could technically exist as ice or vapor, but the conditions necessary for sustaining liquid waterlike those on Earthwould be absent.
If there were no troposphere with pressures well above 100 hPa, there would be no vertical temperature gradient, regardless of the gaseous composition of the troposphere.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_MEAN_ALL_EQ_2024.png
Since air is composed mainly of nitrogen and oxygen, explain how greenhouse gases affect the atmosphere.
The atmosphere contains 78.08% nitrogen, 20.95% oxygen , 0.93% argon and small amounts of other gases.
Quite right.
How does one have a “greenhouse effect” of an atmosphere when Nitrogen, Oxygen (and Argon) are NOT “greenhouse gases” ?
A big beautiful blue bath of NON “greenhouse gases”
By absorbing infrared from the surface.
Headline post: Yes, the Greenhouse Effect Is Like a Real Greenhouse or a stack of blankets.
Imagine a cold winter night and you are home in bed and trying to fall asleep. Your body typically generates about 100 watts of heat. To maintain normal body temperature at equilibrium, your skin must transfer this energy away through convection and infrared radiation. If you lose more heat than you generate, you start to feel colder; if you don’t lose enough heat, you start to feel warmer.
Suppose you haven’t put on a blanket. Your skin feels cold because it loses heat to the colder surrounding air.
You decide that you are uncomfortable, and you cover yourself with a blanket. The blanket impedes the transfer of heat away from your skin and sends some of it back, slowly warming your skin. The heat loss outside the blanket temporarily falls below 100 watts.
Once your skin reaches a new warmer temperature, the amount of heat loss is back to 100 watts, to maintain the equilibrium. The difference is that there is a temperature gradient between your warmer skin and the cooler outer surface of the blanket. The outer surface of the blanket will have approximately the same cold temperature your skin had without the blanket on.
You still feel cold, so you put on a second blanket. The second blanket impedes heat loss from the inner blanket and sends some of it back, again temporarily reducing the heat loss below 100 watts. Your skin starts to warm again. After some time, the temperature of your skin settles into a new, warmer value.
We can call the difference between the two-blanket skin temperature and the one-blanket skin temperature the equilibrium response to doubling the number of blankets.
At the new equilibrium, the outer surface of the second blanket will have approximately the same cold temperature your skin had without any blankets, and the heat loss will once again be back to 100 watts, as required by the law of conservation of energy. But there is a temperature gradient between your warm skin, the cooler exterior of the first blanket, and the cold exterior of the second blanket. We can refer to this temperature gradient between the skin and the outermost blanket as the “lapse rate.”
P.s.: https://www.cambridge.org/us/universitypress/subjects/earth-and-environmental-science/climatology-and-climate-change/climate-demon-past-present-and-future-climate-prediction?format=HB&isbn=9781316510766
Of course, we know that the atmosphere is not isothermal. In fact, air temperature falls quite noticeably with increasing altitude. In ski resorts, you are told to expect the temperature to drop by about 1 degree per 100 meters you go upwards. Many people cannot understand why the atmosphere gets colder the higher up you go. They reason that as higher altitudes are closer to the Sun they ought to be hotter. In fact, the explanation is quite simple. It depends on three important properties of air. The first important property is that air is transparent to most, but by no means all, of the electromagnetic spectrum. In particular, most infrared radiation, which carries heat energy, passes straight through the lower atmosphere and heats the ground. In other words, the lower atmosphere is heated from below, not from above. The second important property of air is that it is constantly in motion. In fact, the lower 20 kilometers of the atmosphere (the so called troposphere) are fairly thoroughly mixed. You might think that this would imply that the atmosphere is isothermal. However, this is not the case because of the final important properly of air: i.e., it is a very poor conductor of heat. This, of course, is why woolly sweaters work: they trap a layer of air close to the body, and because air is such a poor conductor of heat you stay warm.
https://farside.ph.utexas.edu/teaching/sm1/lectures/node56.html
Ireneusz Palmowski,
“Of course, we know that the atmosphere is not isothermal.”
You’ve probably seen in a variety of contexts the concept of thermodynamic equilibrium, the idea that you’ve achieved a uniform temperature in a medium and, that temperature should not be changing with time.
Local thermodynamic equilibrium on the other hand relaxes some of these assumptions. Local now means that the medium can have a spatially varying temperature, it can have a temperature that’s a function of position. In local thermodynamic equilibrium the change in temperature at a specific point with respect to time is zero but that equilibrium temperature can still be spatially dependent.
So, why do we bother with local thermodynamic equilibrium? Well, it turns out that in real life systems are very rarely in global thermodynamic equilibrium, energy is always being transported from one place to another place. If energy weren’t being transported these systems would not be that interesting to study. It’s only in local thermodynamic equilibrium that we get to see these energetic processes in progress.
Ark, your blankets explanation is correct, but that’s not what CO2 does. Your blankets analogy is what the atmosphere does, ie, nitrogen and oxygen.
CO2 emits energy to space. In your blankets analogy, CO2 would be holes in the blankets.
Half up half down.
At any level in the atmosphere half the emission from CO2 goes down, and half goes up.
Arkady Ivanovich says:
”You still feel cold, so you put on a second blanket. The second blanket impedes heat loss from the inner blanket and sends some of it back, again temporarily reducing the heat loss below 100 watts. Your skin starts to warm again. After some time, the temperature of your skin settles into a new, warmer value.
We can call the difference between the two-blanket skin temperature and the one-blanket skin temperature the equilibrium response to doubling the number of blankets.”
Arkady understands that blankets act as insulation without understanding anything at all about why they act as insulation.
That has led Arkady to advance a totally unscientific argument as his viewpoint on how the GHE operates.
The fact is Arkady, blankets are only insulating because air molecules are trapped between the threads of the blanket. In the atmosphere there is no trapping of air molecules and thus there is no need to physically conduct heat across millions of molecules in the blanket they move so freely that heavier CO2 molecules still becomes evenly distributed in the atmosphere.
In construction you can just ignore this. In fact you can use it to cool a building by creating a chimney effect that moves air through the building, despite it holding nasty nasty nasty CO2 in it at the same proportions as our atmosphere.
Then of course Seim and Olson experiment shows that doesn’t change significantly by making the air pure CO2. Yet mainstream media science remains locked in on the idea you are trying to advance. Where did you hear your argument from? Or did you just make it up?
> blankets are only insulating because air molecules are trapped between the threads of the blanket
Exactly.
And that’s why space blankets only insulate because air molecules are trapped between the threads of the blanket.
Bureau of Meteorology
A cold front and low pressure system are bringing wet, windy weather to parts of south-west Western Australia this weekend.
A Severe Weather Warning is current for heavy rainfall for parts of the west and south-west coast today, which may lead to flash flooding.
Tonight, a low pressure system south of the southern Western Australia coast will generate further showers, storms, and strong winds through southern Western Australia tomorrow, mainly for the south and south-west coasts.
Another SSW in the south and cold fronts in southern Australia are approaching.
https://i.ibb.co/tp5DzMb/gfs-t100-sh-f120.png
State of “unknowingness”
https://phys.org/news/2024-08-isnt-bad-leaders.html
In 2002, then US secretary of defense Donald Rumsfeld, discussing the issue of whether Iraq was supplying weapons of mass destruction to terrorists said:
Rumsfeld was describing a world characterized by uncertainty, insecurity and ambiguity. And he made a valid point about how leaders face situations where complete knowledge is not, and cannot be, available.
This awareness of a lack of knowledge is something called a state of “unknowingness.” And, perhaps surprisingly, it can be a good thing for leaders and the organizations they run.
There may be little they can do about the things they don’t even know they don’t know about yet. But when they are aware of the absence of knowledge and accept an inability to know everything or always make the “right” decision, this can be a positive step.
Editorial commentary: Rumsfeld borrowed the “unknown unknowns” schtick from NASA, in an intellectual attempt to justify invasion… Like NASA, the only way to learn about unknown unknowns is “by going there” to gather better information than you can get from where you are. Of course, going into an unknown unknowns situation is synonymous with putting people “in harm’s way.” To talk about “unknown unknowns” when it comes to justification for war is nonsense.
Yesterday, the city of Cuiaba in west-central Brazil, reached a high temperature of 42 °C. This is the Southern Hemisphere’s highest temperature so far this season. It’s still winter there.
This in the context of a month of August that so far is shaping up to be the hottest August on record. Whether August 2024 will finish hotter than August 2023 is too close to call, but odds are favorable.
15.5955 S, 56.0926 W
Cuiab is famous throughout Brazil as one of the country’s hottest cities, where temperatures are often above 40 C (104 F).
‘Winter’ is not a term that applies here.
Gulf of Mexico Ocean Heat Content As of August 19, 2024: https://imgur.com/a/wK2IQNN
The water is warmer than the air at night.
Given (15.5955°S,56.0926°W) ∈Southern Hemisphere, and [June, July, August] = Winter(Southern Hemisphere) => (15.5955°S,56.0926°W, August) = Winter.
If the water never freezes its not winter.
Wikipedia Cuiaba:
Climate data for Cuiaba (19812010)
Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year
Record high C (F) 38.2
(100.8) 37.4
(99.3) 37.6
(99.7) 38.1
(100.6) 36.4
(97.5) 37.2
(99.0) 38.4
(101.1) 42.0
(107.6) 44.0
(111.2) 44.2
(111.6) 41.1
(106.0) 42.4
(108.3) 44.2
(111.6)
Mean daily maximum C (F) 32.6
(90.7) 32.8
(91.0) 32.9
(91.2) 33.0
(91.4) 31.4
(88.5) 31.3
(88.3) 32.0
(89.6) 34.1
(93.4) 34.3
(93.7) 34.3
(93.7) 33.6
(92.5) 32.9
(91.2) 33.0
(91.4)
Daily mean C (F) 27.0
(80.6) 26.9
(80.4) 26.8
(80.2) 26.6
(79.9) 24.7
(76.5) 23.5
(74.3) 23.4
(74.1) 25.3
(77.5) 26.8
(80.2) 27.9
(82.2) 27.5
(81.5) 27.2
(81.0) 26.1
(79.0)
Mean daily minimum C (F) 23.6
(74.5) 23.4
(74.1) 23.3
(73.9) 22.7
(72.9) 20.1
(68.2) 18.0
(64.4) 17.1
(62.8) 18.6
(65.5) 21.1
(70.0) 23.2
(73.8) 23.4
(74.1) 23.5
(74.3) 21.5
(70.7)
Record low C (F) 20.5
(68.9) 19.2
(66.6) 15.4
(59.7) 13.8
(56.8) 9.1
(48.4) 7.4
(45.3) 4.8
(40.6) 7.6
(45.7) 10.5
(50.9) 13.3
(55.9) 14.7
(58.5) 16.2
(61.2) 4.8
(40.6)
Average precipitation mm (inches) 247.5
(9.74) 220.4
(8.68) 217.5
(8.56) 117.8
(4.64) 50.4
(1.98) 19.4
(0.76) 16.0
(0.63) 22.1
(0.87) 51.3
(2.02) 114.0
(4.49) 172.9
(6.81) 205.2
(8.08) 1,454.5
(57.26)
Average precipitation days (≥ 1.0 mm) 17 14 15 10 4 1 1 2 4 8 11 15 102
Average relative humidity (%) 81.7 82.4 82.7 80.0 78.1 73.8 68.5 61.3 63.7 70.3 75.7 78.1 74.7
Mean monthly sunshine hours 155.6 149.6 179.5 209.0 216.7 200.7 241.8 226.7 163.4 188.4 181.9 157.6 2,270.9
Source: Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia[17][18][19]
Thirty-six years ago, on this day, August 20th, 1988, James Hansen at the Goddard Institute published his climate model in the Journal of Geophysical Research. Hansen predicted a global warming of 0.6, 1.1, or 1.5 °C within 30 years – for Low, Medium, and High scenarios, respectively, of future greenhouse gas emissions.
A version of the model used by Hansen to make his 1988 predictions is still available and is maintained for educational purposes. It consists of about 25,000 lines of code. A state-of-the-art climate model today consists of more than 1.5 million lines of code – a 60-fold increase in 30 years.
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air then was roughly 351ppm. It is now about 424ppm.
Yeah wee keep the score on that prediction
https://i.postimg.cc/q7P20h5j/35654-7.png
So long Summer…
The summer is over, or so they tell me. But here I am, on this sacred Mountain hideaway, and for the first time, the crisp morning air and watching the river run aren’t quite enough. My mind, usually at peace in this solitude, is wandering, drifting back to the roar of an engine, the smell of burning rubber, the thrill of raw horsepower. Dammit, I miss my hot rod. I barely got my hands on the wheel before I was ripped away from it by the Texas summer, and now it’s all I can think about.
I consider myself to be one of the luckiest “hoodlums” on the face of the earth!
I have a great family, and have relative youth, and have my health!
I have the necessary annual luxury, of being able to leave South Texas and the heat to travel across the country, to a paradise that is a depot of personal rejuvenation on a variety of different levels, that many don’t ever get to experience!
Not that it matters much, though. I’m headed back to Texas, where the sun’s so blistering, you’d be a madman to take a car like that out on the road. But hell, at least I’ll be able to see it, touch it, sit in it – maybe even make those ridiculous engine noises that make me feel like a kid again. It’s absurd how much my life revolves around these old machines. But it’s not just the cars, it’s the ritual. There’s a road back in Cut and Shoot, one specific stretch of asphalt, where I take my car at least once a week. It’s like a pilgrimage for the soul – more necessary with every passing year.
I take nothing for granted.
P.s.: https://imgur.com/a/zcIEIAG
understanding climate
https://tinyurl.com/3y7ussyd
I agree that it’s mostly the thermal model.
And not too worried about coming cold- +100 years from now.
CO2 is plant food and it might help with greening all our deserts {a little bit}. Though if we had some global warming, it would more useful in terms of greening our deserts [more than 1/3rd of all land area].
But humans should develop ocean settlements, and be happy about all of the wastelands of desert and frozen regions.
Just because God supposedly cursed us as from the dirt and basically dirt, doesn’t mean we have to live on the dirt.
Atlantic Ocean is cooling at record speed
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/ar-AA1pcupU
Wrong: You took a headline out of context.
Reality: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/atlantic-nina-verge-developing-heres-why-we-should-pay-attention
The central equatorial Atlantic Ocean is temporarily cooling (an Atlantic Niña cycle i.e. a redistribution of energy in earths systems). Globally the Oceans continue to warm rapidly (https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-warming/?intent=121).
The world would be a better place if people always read beyond the headlines or if content providers weren’t so motivated to create click bait and outrage.
Yesterday, the town of Oodnadatta in the Australian state of South Australia, reached a record high temperature of 38.5 °C. Its still winter in the Southern Hemisphere.
The highest winter temperature ever recorded in South Australia: https://imgur.com/a/dDUn4Wp
A day after its maximum of 38.5°, Oodnadatta registered a new record winter high of 39.4°C on Saturday afternoon.
https://imgur.com/a/r8MLHxK
AK, The fun continues for folks Down Under:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/08/26/australia-record-winter-heat/
SEE Graphic: https://t.co/tFxzxigi9r
Ninety-one years ago, on this day, August 25th, 1933, carbon dioxide’s influence on climate gets a mention in an Australian publication, The South Coast Bulletin. https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/133767415#
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air then was roughly 309ppm. It is now ~424ppm.
So what? Who cares? See a doctor if the CO2 is affecting your brain.
Everything on earth continues as before.
But there is too much ice up here now, unlike those good old days in the mid-Holocene, when you could haul out on any island you wanted to… with babes sunning themselves everywhere!
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/analyses/waning-arctic-summer
The waning of Arctic summer
MONDAY, AUGUST 19, 2024
Arctic sea ice continued the fast retreat that was observed in July through August 10, followed by a brief slowdown, only to pick up pace again. During the first half of August, the ice primarily retreated in the northern Beaufort Sea and in the East Siberian Sea. The ice also mostly cleared out of the Northwest Passage, whereas ice remained in the Chukchi Sea, along the Northern Sea Route. In the Southern Ocean, sea ice began to expand rapidly after a slow growth from May through July but remains at the second lowest daily extent as of this post.
As the sea ice cover decreases, less solar radiation is reflected away from the surface of the Earth in a feedback effect that causes more heat to be absorbed and consequently melting to occur faster still.
Best climate pr0n
https://youtu.be/IPuDDE_-AZ0
Phoenix has reached 100°F (37.8°C) for its 90th consecutive day. For perspective, the old record was 76 consecutive days. Thus, the previous record 100°F streak has been smashed by 2 weeks and counting. Summer 2024 will also be Phoenix’s hottest on record.
Long-duration heat has become more common.
https://imgur.com/a/p2lptFD
But it is a dry heat!
The fact the Phoenix has added over 800 square miles of concrete and asphalt and over 8 million people (with additional a/c) probably has nothing to with that ..
I wondered if any of the obviously learned here might comment on the veracity this recent paper that claims that most of our warming is accounted for by the changed “Albedo” of our planet.
https://www.mdpi.com/2673-7418/4/3/17
Highlights from “100% Of 2000-2023 Warming Explained By Solar ForcingHuman Climate Forcing Does Not Exist In Reality”
According to CERES observations, the Earths all-sky albedo has declined by approximately 0.79% since 2000
causing an increase of planetary shortwave radiation absorption of ≈2.7 W/m.
Our analysis revealed that the observed decrease of planetary albedo along with reported variations of the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) explain 100% of the global warming trend and 83% of the GSAT interannual variability as documented by six satellite- and ground-based monitoring systems over the past 24 years. Nikolov and Zeller, 2024
In other words, the anthropogenic global warming conceptualization is not a real-world phenomenon. It does not exist.
[A] global longwave radiative forcing predicted by climate models and attributed to rising concentrations of atmospheric trace gases does not exist in reality.
Thus, the available empirical evidence does not support the existence of an anthropogenic radiative forcing disturbing the energy flow within the Earths climate system.
Many thanks
bjthinker
For the brilliant thinker: Nikolov and Zeller are ultra-skeptics who even had the stupidity to publish nonsensical, unscientific articles under the pseudonyms ‘Volokin and Rellez’.
And the brilliant thinker really believes that scientifically minded people would believe their blah blah…
Didn’t the garbage man pick up that load of rubbish already?
time to learn some quantum fizzix
https://youtu.be/K5Po5R-1rgY
Has anyone ever thought of simply doing an experiment of having 4 greenhouses. 1 Greenhouse with 410 ppm CO2 and another with 820, 1230, 1640 PPM and measure the temperature during the night or in darkness? Basically a controlled experiment? Corn FIelds will have much lower CO2 levels than surrounding areas of dirt. Has anyone ever meausured the temperature in a corn field and next to a corn field?
CO2 thermalizes 15 micron LWIR. CO2 is 1 molecule out of 2,500. There is 0.00 chance that vibrating 1 out of every 2,500 moleules will materially alter the kinetic energy of the other 2,499 using the energy of a blackbody of temp -80C (15 micron LWIR). There simply isnt any energy at that wavelength to make a difference.
Another experiment that isn’t convienently run is simply warming water with CO2. The one and only mechanism by which CO2 can affect climate change is through the backradiation of 15 micron LWIR. That is the one and only defined mechanism by which CO2 can alter the climate. It that is in fact the case, a controled experiment becomes extremely simple, you only have one variable to alter.
How do you construct a real scientific experiment to measure the impact of CO2 on water temperarures? You simply have 2 buckets of water in a controlled enviroment and measure the temperature of the 2 buckets. One is a control and the other has additional 15 micron LWIR applied to it. You would do this with a Long-Pass Filter.
That is the most simple experiment in the world to perform, yet no Climate “Scientist” seen to have figured out what anyone in 1st Grade that ever ran a Bean Plant Height experiment knows.
The oceans control the climate, the oceans are warming, if CO2 isn’t warming the oceans, something other than CO2 is the cause.
August 7, 2024
Greenhouse Gases Are a Scientific Myth
By James T. Moodey August 7, 2024
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2024/08/greenhouse_gases_are_a_scientific_myth.html
+++++++++
Dr. Spencer, your comments about this article will be very, VERY appreciated. [please reply to me so I can find it]
I am an 89 year young guy, with a 1969 bachelors degree from LSU who found your site years ago, don’t really remember when or how but it was about 12 or so years ago. I ‘check in’ from time to time as a “refresher course” for Climate Information to discuss with my daughter.
Thank you [in advance]
**Alvin: He’s wrong. The greenhouse effect is radiative, it has nothing to do with the heat capacity of CO2 versus other gases. The GHE is real. What is debatable is how much warming adding more CO2 to the atmosphere causes. -Roy
A [PS] to my earlier post – about my daughter. Here is a clip from her resume:
Fran 2001-12, sh. was the senior advisor on
water .nd watorshod managem.lit 8t u.S.
Dapartmont Of Dofonso AfflAK Hands, Rogiorial
Command Southwest, in the Holmand Provlnco Of
AIgh8nist8n.
I read the watts up experment, you linked, cool object heating a warmer object
I don’t understand why heating the top glass wouldn’t result in a warmer bottom plate, as right now the sun is heating the upper atmosphere to very high levels that have not been seen since the satellite era.The idea that equates to turning on an electric blanket keeps out the cold air and allows the body to warm itself
Wouldn’t his experment prove that its the sun that is warming the earth by allowing it to retain more heat because the thermosphere is warmer ?