Home/BlogThe Version 6.1 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for March, 2025 was +0.58 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean, up from the February, 2025 anomaly of +0.50 deg. C.
The Version 6.1 global area-averaged linear temperature trend (January 1979 through March 2025) remains at +0.15 deg/ C/decade (+0.22 C/decade over land, +0.13 C/decade over oceans).
The following table lists various regional Version 6.1 LT departures from the 30-year (1991-2020) average for the last 15 months (record highs are in red).
| YEAR | MO | GLOBE | NHEM. | SHEM. | TROPIC | USA48 | ARCTIC | AUST |
| 2024 | Jan | +0.80 | +1.02 | +0.58 | +1.20 | -0.19 | +0.40 | +1.12 |
| 2024 | Feb | +0.88 | +0.95 | +0.81 | +1.17 | +1.31 | +0.86 | +1.16 |
| 2024 | Mar | +0.88 | +0.96 | +0.80 | +1.26 | +0.22 | +1.05 | +1.34 |
| 2024 | Apr | +0.94 | +1.12 | +0.76 | +1.15 | +0.86 | +0.88 | +0.54 |
| 2024 | May | +0.78 | +0.77 | +0.78 | +1.20 | +0.05 | +0.20 | +0.53 |
| 2024 | June | +0.69 | +0.78 | +0.60 | +0.85 | +1.37 | +0.64 | +0.91 |
| 2024 | July | +0.74 | +0.86 | +0.61 | +0.97 | +0.44 | +0.56 | -0.07 |
| 2024 | Aug | +0.76 | +0.82 | +0.69 | +0.74 | +0.40 | +0.88 | +1.75 |
| 2024 | Sep | +0.81 | +1.04 | +0.58 | +0.82 | +1.31 | +1.48 | +0.98 |
| 2024 | Oct | +0.75 | +0.89 | +0.60 | +0.63 | +1.90 | +0.81 | +1.09 |
| 2024 | Nov | +0.64 | +0.87 | +0.41 | +0.53 | +1.12 | +0.79 | +1.00 |
| 2024 | Dec | +0.62 | +0.76 | +0.48 | +0.52 | +1.42 | +1.12 | +1.54 |
| 2025 | Jan | +0.45 | +0.70 | +0.21 | +0.24 | -1.06 | +0.74 | +0.48 |
| 2025 | Feb | +0.50 | +0.55 | +0.45 | +0.26 | +1.04 | +2.10 | +0.87 |
| 2025 | Mar | +0.58 | +0.74 | +0.41 | +0.40 | +1.25 | +1.23 | +1.20 |
The full UAH Global Temperature Report, along with the LT global gridpoint anomaly image for March, 2025, and a more detailed analysis by John Christy, should be available within the next several days here.
The monthly anomalies for various regions for the four deep layers we monitor from satellites will be available in the next several days at the following locations:
In before the pointless bickering starts. La Nia conditions are present but expected to move to ENSO-neutral this month, and odds are it will remain so through the summer, so it’s gonna be an interesting future. Hopefully the work presented here will not be defunded any time soon.
Indeed, I am also following this with great interest. It is also apparent that the forecast of ENSO seems rather difficult given the diverging results of the models.
It is difficult. At 3 months out it’s around 80% – close to the success rate of weather predictions over the coming week – with lower odds the further out, just over 50% at 12 months out (from memory).
There is the ‘Spring Predictability Barrier’ which makes for weak forecasts that predict beyond the next Spring.
The 13 mo average line sustaining a 0.4C or greater increase over the 2015-2017 path of the line.
So what is your prediction for the next few months?
The near near term is that the T will continue at its present level, given that we are in ENSO neutral conditions.
After that is mostly dependent on what ENSO does next.
What gives you the idea that I should be able to predict the future of ENSO better than any actual expert?
So you are covered if it goes up or down.
Can u offer any better?
Warmer than I expected, and still little sign of temperatures returning to pre 2023 levels.
The 3rd warmest March on record. Close to March 2016.
2024 0.88
2016 0.64
2025 0.58
2010 0.39
1998 0.35
2020 0.34
2004 0.23
2019 0.22
2022 0.19
2017 0.18
2023 0.18
And 0.4 above the March of the ENSO similar year 2017.
So what is your prediction for the next few months?
You have to know what is causing it before you can create a predictive model. Nate has discovered another hole in his GHE theory.
April foolishness is over Stephen.
Wow, it took Nate two days to think that one.
Can’t take your posts seriously anymore, Stephen.
My simple forecast based on linear regression from the first three months a linear trend over time, predicts 2025 will be 0.45 +/- 0.17C. That gives a 60% chance of being the second warmest year on record, but with a reasonable chance it could drop down a few places.
https://i.imgur.com/TH1RPKO.png
However, given the unusual nature of temperatures recently, I won;t be putting money on it.
“predicts 2025 will be 0.45 +/- 0.17C”
We shall see won’t we.
Good to see the gridded data is already available. Here’s my global map in the style of the official UAH map.
https://i.imgur.com/6otGxmk.png
and the same but using a gradient fill.
https://i.imgur.com/EsUUvyB.png
Even with AGW the record temps of the last 2 years won’t be beaten for a while, perhaps more than a decade. Stay tuned for the next new pause!
So you’re saying CO2 is going to stop rising?
if you mean on the UAH troposphere record, perhaps. Looking at surface temperatures, highly unlikely it would go that long. Longest since 1981 was 6 yeas without a record.
Perhaps less likely re the surface records, but not out of the realm of possibility that 2024 will not be beaten for a decade or more.
So CO2 is going to stop rising? Is that your prediction?
The Tunga Eruption effects is still going strong which is why it hasn’t cooled down much.
The Tonga eruption resulted in short term cooling.
Schoeberl et al. examined how Hungas eruption affected climate in the Southern Hemisphere over the following 2 years. They found that in the year following the eruption, the cooling effect from the volcanic aerosols reflecting sunlight into outer space was stronger than the warming caused by water vapors trapping heat in the atmosphere. But most of the volcanos effects had dissipated by the end of 2023.
So youre citing a paper that predicts cooling to explain the largest warming spike in satellite historyone thats also the most inconsistent with ocean trends, which usually forecast with the troposphereand youre serious? Im struggling to follow the logic here. It seems the only valid interpretation is academia said it, so it must be true. Can you explain why that explanation holds up better than simply admitting the modelbuilt for the first wet volcano of its kindmight be wrong? Either the aerosol forcing estimate or the warming from stratospheric water vapor must be off, right? Otherwise, its like saying, My model says Pinatubo caused warming, so the observed cooling must have come from something else. Is that really what were calling objective reality now?
Cooling in the Stratosphere yes but not in the Troposphere.
When the Stratosphere cools down the Troposphere warms, and vice versa.
A warming troposphere does not necessarily correspond to a cooling stratosphere.
Factors that would cause the troposphere to warm without the corresponding cooling of stratosphere would include an increase in TSI flux or an increase in geothermal flux. There may be other factors as well. These are just examples.
Factors that would cause the troposphere to warm AND the stratosphere to cool would include an increase in GHGs or a decrease in some aerosols. There may be other factors as well. These are just examples.
Agreed tommy. Even though the HTE is slowing dissipating, it is still having a warming effect.
https://postimg.cc/06yBjXsz
There were no appreciable warming effects from the Tunga eruption.
It hasn’t cooled down because TSI is still very high in 2025.
https://i.postimg.cc/3rjGy8zG/CERES-TSI-Composite-Feb-25.jpg
Many people like to think they’ve falsified solar activity forcing.
Even if those values were correct, they still would not account for all the temperature increase since the H-T eruption.
Then, there’s the clear correlation with UAH, which doesn’t exist with the solar “constant”.
So no, the insignificant variation in TSI didn’t do it.
“… the insignificant variation in TSI didn’t do it.”
Clint your comment doesn’t even count as a valid argument.
Let’s see how significant the SC#25 TSI really was – in February, the 63rd month of this solar cycle, the sun had emitted 26.3 W/m^2 more than the last solar cycle #24 in 5.25 years, or 5.0 W/m^2/yr
This result is then divided by the canonical 4 to get 1.25 W/m^2/yr in average solar climate forcing over each of the last 5.25 years.
Additionally, the last 9 solar cycles TSI has imparted an alternating pattern in the eastern Pacific Nino regions that affects albedo particularly during/after the solar minimum until the next El Nino.
https://i.postimg.cc/7hvjBJz5/Solar-Cycles-and-Tropical-Step-Changes.png
The combination of lower albedo and higher TSI, as computed using the S-B equation, was more than enough to supply the absorbed solar. I estimated the direct TSI contribution to the ASR to be 36%, but it was TSI that set the table, changing the albedo, so it was all TSI.
https://i.postimg.cc/4NFFbVW9/ASR-and-Had-SST4.png
Just let me know Clint when you have determined the climate forcing for HTHH or any other forcing you can dream up to compete with TSI.
BW said: Lets see how significant the SC#25 TSI really was in February, the 63rd month of this solar cycle, the sun had emitted 26.3 W/m^2 more than the last solar cycle #24 in 5.25 years, or 5.0 W/m^2/yr.
That is patently false.
The average TSI over 63 months starting from the beginning of SC25 from 2019/12 to 2025/02 is 1362.24 W.m-2.
The average TSI over 63 months starting from the beginning of SC24 from 2008/01 to 2013/03 is 1361.73 W.m-2.
That is a difference of 1362.24 – 1361.73 = 0.51 W.m-2. That isn’t even remotely close to your claimed 26.3 W.m-2.
BW said: This result is then divided by the canonical 4 to get 1.25 W/m^2/yr in average solar climate forcing over each of the last 5.25 years.
Again, this is patently false.
The actual radiative force is 0.51 W.m-2 * (1 – 0.3) / 4 = 0.09 W.m-2. That isn’t even remotely close to your claimed 1.25 W.m-2.
This data comes from the LASP Interactive Solar Irradiance Datacenter.
Its difficult to believe that these natural variations in temperature that we see across the entire chart above are chaotic. There may be a chaotic element to them but it is clear that we recently had an astronomical event that resulted in about 5 extra days close to the sun vs further way from the sun over how much we had in 1980 as verified by the US Naval Observatory.
We can also clearly see via spectral analysis of outgoing longwave radiation that frequencies in CO2 bands are far more saturated than in the water vapor bands, such that water vapor feedbacks would be very robust for any increase in total sunlight observed on earth. I figure the reason for this in view of how much water vapor is in the air compared to CO2 is that water vapor is not evenly distributed and that shows up with less blockage of LW in the water vapor frequencies when only mean global outgoing LW is estimated. All that is pretty uncertain especially as we consider clouds and precipitable water in the atmosphere.
With three known variables for sunlight 1) orbit perturbances of speed changes of earth through its orbit as confirmed by the US Naval Observatory. 2) year over year changes in earth’s orbit ellipticity brought about by the same. 3) solar activity that affects the amount of high frequency radiation received by earth.
That and planet movement tables strongly suggests that the decline in the effect is going to continue to move slowly over the next year and a half or more.
Sea ice feedback appears to be kicking in about two years after this anomalous event kicked in so we should expect this will tend to slow the declining effects of Jupiter moving into what is likely several years of strong cooling influence beginning this summer.
But the best we can expect of it is a neutralization of the warming effects of the other planets over the next few years. We have seen recently that it can take a long time for the ocean to cough up its heat with ocean adjustment time periods estimated to be around 10 years. Thats probably because of the GHE and atmospheric temperature is a factor along with absorbed solar radiation directly into the ocean as opposed to only on its surface.
The recent update to solar activity now recognized here https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
that the 2019 predictions were quite low. You can see by how much by selecting the 2019 prediction in the small drop down box in the lower left of the graph.
The current prediction doesn’t have solar activity dropping below the long term average until around late summer 2027 and not reaching a minimum until 2031
We can expect a small warming bump after that with Jupiter moving back to the warming side by 2032. But Jupiter will not catch Saturn again until 2040 when they will combine their effects on the cool side which hasn’t happened since 1980.
As a caution against those who wish to dispute this, all the above is operating from an assumed non-warming influence (detrended to zero) estimation of the effects of increasing CO2.
That certainly doesn’t have to be the case and I am not predicting that to be the case.
Instead I am simply operating from a position of uncertainty about the effects of increasing CO2 and thus have not attempted to plot it. So this is not an attack on CO2 worriers and special interest warriors. The only thing I am certain of is that some of the warming experienced since 1980 is attributable to the items noted above and not part of any warming from CO2 as CO2 does not affect the sun nor earth’s speed through the warmest and coolest parts of its orbit.
The new Monckton Pause starts in 2023/06 and is 21 months. The average of this pause is 0.70 C which is 0.49 C higher than the average of the previous pause of 0.21 C which lasted 107 months starting in 2014/06.
My prediction for 2025 is 0.43 +/- 0.16 C.
Really appreciate this long-term, extensive dataset. This will be an invaluable historical record for the development of climate change. Please keep it up.
Yes, this space-based dataset nicely takes readings averaged out over a larger area than relying on one lone ground station representing a large area of varying characteristics.
This half-century of data also clearly shows there is no mystical feedback loops that will accelerate the warming. It’s been 1.5C/century for decades, in spite of ENSO, Tunga, climate policies and even the industrialization of Asia.
Second- and third-order polynomials fit the data than a linear model, suggesting that the warming is accelerating.
” … suggesting that the warming is accelerating. ”
No need to be an alarmist to understand you. It’s enough to look at the polynomials:
https://i.postimg.cc/sgytGv69/UAH-6-1-LT-Globe-lin-vs-2p-vs-3p.png
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If there were no acceleration, the green, yellow and red lines simply would coincide.
UAH Mean and Median Global for Mar 2025
https://climatedatablog.wordpress.com/2025/04/03/uah-mean-and-median-global-for-mar-2025/
UAH Mean and Median Tropics for Mar 2025
https://climatedatablog.wordpress.com/2025/04/03/uah-mean-and-median-tropics-for-mar-2025/
Are you expecting the 5 y mean to follow that rapidly rising projection?
That would be high rate of accelerated warming.
Nate
The so-called ‘projection’s in Blindsley H00d’s (RLH’s) graphs are nothing else than the right end of a multiply applied 60 month Savitzky-Golay (SG) smoothing.
Unlike the 60 month cascaded running mean which ends 30 + 25 + 19 = 74 months before the end of the time series it is applied to, a SG smoothing applied to a time series starts at the time series’ begin and ends where the time series ends – like do linear trends or polynomials, see my post above.
To make the SG end looking like a ‘projection’, Blindsley H00d hides the beginning of the SG.
And his 12 month median computation still is wrong but he never admits his mistakes let alone would he ever correct them.
Here is how correct median computations for UAH 6.1 LT look like:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/174CxYCkDKfQMUhAR4TnWXeKj58yhIiCYvCOF4koSfec/edit?gid=2068381560#gid=2068381560
The March reading seems to support the theory that there was some kind of sudden event or effect a few years ago, and that effect is now dissipating. The big question is the same as every month, and that is where does it go from here? The potential for month-to-month variability is large enough that no single month really has much significance for the future direction. The red line is still going down, so at least one peak is over.
I think future peaks and troughs will wiggle around the 0.4C above the the current baseline. 1987-1997 averaged around -.2, 2000-2015 around 0, and 2015-2023 wiggled around the 0.2C level so after this big peak finishes it’s run I think temps will settle in around the 0.4C level. I’m using the 1998 peak as model.
That’s just eyeballing a graph without consideration of the underlying physics, so no guarantees or bets.
SOLAR MINIMUM UPDATE
Billionaire businessman Mark Cuban predicted economic disaster for Alabama and other southern states if the Department of Government Efficiency continues on its trajectory of slashing federal workers and cutting spending that bleeds into the private sector.
I think there is going to be a Red Rural Recession and soon if all the cuts continue as is, Cuban posted to the Bluesky social media platform on Wednesday.
All the firings, cancelling of grants and contracts with companies, the closing of offices, disproportionately impact small towns, cities and states, Cuban continued. Their finances will be turned upside.
https://www.al.com/politics/2025/04/mark-cuban-issues-dire-prediction-amid-elon-musks-doge-cuts-red-rural-recession.html
Well done, everyone!
The monthly UAH satellite lower tropo temperatures for March 2025 are out, thank you dr Spencer, showing an increase over AUSTRALIA.
There is much discussion about whether the Hunga Tonga eruption of 15th Jan 2022 plays a part.
The following graph does not prove anything.
It is, however, suggestive that Hunga Tonga could be playing a part.
Geoff S
https://www.geoffstuff.com/htstart.jpg
Geoff Sherrington
I’m wondering about your chart which actually leads to a massive overestimation of HTE’s effect in your Australia corner.
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1. Here is a comparison of the full monthly UAH 6.1 LT ‘AUS’ record to a time series constructed out of on average over 600 GHCN daily stations in Australia active since Dec 1978:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ALtyse1bAtTyNh9uMzCMNw1lJbGbHEpK/view
*
2. The overestimation becomes even more visible when restricting the monthly series to the period you used above:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1KEpnmIbe3YusZtWnjEa3D8witx7u3vWf/view
{ The linear estimates in C / decade for 2015-2024 are
– GHCN daily: -0.08 +- 0.21
– UAH LT: 0.38 +- 0.17
to be compared to those for the entire sat period:
– GHCN daily: 0.18 +- 0.02
– UAH LT: 0.21 +- 0.02
}
*
Top 10 of a descending sort of monthly anomalies for UAH 6.1 LT over Australia since Dec 1978:
2024 8: 1.73 (C)
2024 12: 1.54
2002 6: 1.53
1998 5: 1.50
2023 7: 1.49
2009 8: 1.44
2004 6: 1.39
2016 5: 1.33
1997 2: 1.29
2023 8: 1.29
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HTE ‘s effect is since beginning grossly overestimated by those who exclusively talk about stratospheric water uptake while ‘ignoring’ the effect of the aerosols resulting from SO2 upload.
The Moyhu surface temperature index showed a similar small rise of 0.04C. It was the second warmest March in the record, after 2024.
https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2025/04/march-global-surface-templs-up-004-from.html
Everybody still feeling good about cost of living, the economy, etc?
Anybody feeling any buyers remorse yet?
I can understand needing to explain complex relationships, but this is really simple. Panic-sellers and people who need to sell assets on the short term are getting hurt. Experienced investors who invest for the long term and maintain adequate cash assets (think money market funds) will just ride it out like we always do. The markets will recover. People who think they can time the markets are just as foolish as people who think computer simulations can predict the future.
Competent people say the fundamentals of the US economy are still very strong. This problem is best described as “self-induced”. The self who did the inducing needs to do a better job of listening to people. Others would say we need short term pain for long term gains. My crystal ball is very fuzzy, but conservative media are reporting the other quotes from world leaders, in addition to the ones you hear about fighting back from the left-wing liberal media. Many governments are expressing a strong desire to negotiate new trade agreements. Stay tuned.
“will just ride it out like we always do”
A reminder of Lord Keynes:
“Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”
But this one seems rational.
Tim,
You always seem confident that our President is acting rationally. A month ago, you were sure his tariff threats were just leverage to get things he wanted from Canada and Mexico. And he would succeed.
But now we see that was not the case at all. He likes the idea of tariffs. And now he has started an unprovoked world trade war.
Hopefully people like you will figure out what will be the predictable economic consequences.
Yes, all those who thought tariffs were merely a strategic threat have moved on to new and improved rationalisations.
“Competent people say the fundamentals of the US economy are still very strong.”
No doubt these are not the people who were trash-talking the economy while Biden was in power. But yes, Trump has the previous government to thank for a fundamentally sound economy. Now he is wrecking it. None of his followers voted for the economy to get worse, but people who have faith in Trump would be happy for him to burn the constitution if he told them it was necessary.
So the previous administration adding 7 trillion dollars of debt made the economy fundamentally sound?
You saying the 8 trillion Trump added make the economy unsound?
Debt accumulates under every president, conservative and Republican,and the fitness of the US economy is based on a range of issues, from jobs to inflation, to GDP, deficit reduction, etc. The US economy rebounded fairly effectively from COVID, slashing the unemployment rate, with moderate wage growth, a strengthening stock market.
Inflation increased to a high point, then receded to usuallows by the end of 2024. While the deficit was reduced in the 4 years after the Trump administration, the debt increased significantly in real terms, though not as a percentage of accumulated debt.
Yes, Trump inherited a pretty robust economy from the previous government (including congress – it’s not the president who sets spending).
“Debt accumulates under every president, conservative and Republican”
Meant Democrat and Republican, of course.
Stephen, if prices rise this year, that is all on Trump. If the economy tanks this year, that is all on Trump.
As you should know, gov revenue goes down when the economy tanks. So the Debt will increase. That will be all on Trump.
Nate,
What if there is deflation this year? Will that be on Trump?
If the economy picks up, and this can be shown to be due to tariffs, then Trump can take the credit.
At best,though unlikely, by the end of the year a few industries may be economically healthier due to tariffs giving them an advantage. I don’t know which industries. Maybe auto – which has been lobbying hard for Trump to make exemptions on the material they import.
And there is the point. If a company requires foreign material at any point in their production,they will now be paying more for those materials. This cost will be passed onto consumers, reducing the advantage that tariffs supposedly give the industry.
But taken as a whole, these tariffs are going to be a significant nett negative for the vast majority of Americans who are not wealthy enough to dispose some of their income to higher prices.
Barry,
The economy is not going to turn around. We are at a Grand Supercycle Top. You leftists will exploit it the best just like you do anytime there are economic crises. Leftists do not care if it all crumbles into a pile of rubble as long as you are on top of the pile declaring yourselves “Kings of the Pile” of rubble.
Stephen, if there is deflation then we’re in a depression.
Yeah, what’s your point?
The U-turns that Trump cultists make as he breaks his election promises is as turgid as it is predictable.
After complaining about the economy and voting for Trump, who promised them an instant turnaround, to make it all rosy again, they now argue that a steep economic downturn is as needful as it is inevitable.
What muppets, parroting Trumpian apologists without blinking as they step over the vast gulf between what they were certain of last year to its exact opposite.
Should Trump invade Greenland they will nod their vacuous heads in agreement. And when Trump insists that he needs to ignore parts of constitution to Make America Great Again, they will become little lawyers to argue the case for him.
“Grand Supercycle” – the latest apologist talking point no doubt. Here come the little economists to broadcast the newest rationalisation.
Barry,
I didn’t vote for Trump because I thought he could turn it around. Presidents can’t turn an economy around. The best they can do is try to remove regulations to get out of the economy’s way. We are at a market top of epic proportions. This downturn could last decades or centuries. This is a top akin to what preceded the South Sea or Tulip mania bubble or possibly the Dark Ages. It has nothing to do with Trump. I voted for Trump because I thought he would be the best fit to manage it initially, he and Musk. But this is way bigger than two men, or politics or anything. In ten years the geographic boundaries of the planet will look quite different. You leftists will have your little kingdoms of tyranny around but they won’t be what you think they are.
Barry,
Do you know why most Americans voted for Trump. Because he didn’t try to use the Department of Labor to force every working American to take the vax. Only a tyrant would do that. I know you leftists love your tyrannical policies but then why don’t you go live in North Korea or Australia? Oh wait, you do.
“Presidents cant turn an economy around”
But apparently they can cause economic meltdowns.
Trump is just reacting to what he’s seeing and the information he is privy to. The money supply started shrinking last year, the market topped in December, banks are in trouble, the Fed is out of bullets, Trump is trying to do something. Nothing is going to work. All the King’s horses and all the King’s men, can’t put Humpty together again. Over 100 years of progressive ideology, the FED, income tax, entitlements, the New Deal, Great Society, and on and on, has finally done us in.
If the Democrats had not stolen the election in 2020 Trump might have had a chance to prolong this awhile but it has been approximately 234 years since the Constitution was ratified by all 13 colonies. So, Trump would have been fighting nature.
Or, or the guy is simply power mad.
There was no economic crisis until now Stephen.
Oh yeah, no economic crisis? Where have you been for 4 years? Prices have gone through the roof. Have you tried to buy a car lately? Or a ribeye? Where do you live, Nate?
“I didn’t vote for Trump because I thought he could turn it around.”
Ok then. You will be among a minority of Trump supporters who won’t be disappointed.
August 2024: “Starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again, to bring down the prices of all goods.”
September 2024: “We’re going to get the prices down. We have to get them down. It’s too much. Groceries, cars, everything. We’re going to get the prices down.”
October 2024: “Starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again. We’ll do that. We’ve got to bring it down.”
November 4 2024: “A vote for Trump means your groceries will be cheaper.”
Bringing down the cost of living was the 2nd most important thing for Trump voters. Concerns about inflation and cost of living was often the top issue for all voters, particularly Republican voters.
https://www.bankrate.com/personal-finance/2024-election-and-the-economy-survey/
https://navigatorresearch.org/post-election-poll-how-economic-issues-played-out-in-house-battleground-districts-in-the-election/
https://2024electionpoll.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/1.-Results-by-race.pdf
Lowering the prices of essential goods polled as the most important way of easing financial pressure with the 2024 election in mind.
https://www.nefe.org/news/2024/10/47-percent-of-us-adults-believe-personal-finances-may-be-impacted-by-2024-election-results.aspx
Strangely, Trump’s campaign messaging did not ever let his supporters know that a vote for him was a vote for years of economic hardship. I wonder if he would have won with an honest campaign…
“Oh yeah, no economic crisis? Where have you been for 4 years? Prices have gone through the roof. ”
But you’re ok with that getting even worse as a direct result of Trump’s tariffs?
Biden didn’t cause the global issue of higher prices. Every country suffered that post-COVID and with the Ukraine war. But Trump is going to be sole owner of the coming major price hikes that you’ve been defending, stephen. The very thing you now call an economic crisis.
I don’t think Trump has a chance of making the econony better. It is too late. I know he promised he would, but he can’t. But, still Trump is much better than the alternative to lead us through the coming years. You guys are still consumed in your little paradigm. Your little paradigm is over. You Australians should start thinking Mad Max.
You are actually satisfied with the notion of economic armageddon.
None of this was inevitable or needful. But at least you’re not trying to pretend it’s not going to happen, like so many Trump sycophants. No, you are patting him on the back for having the guts to hurt poor people, while he and his rich friends can keep on sipping cocktails.
You know what would have brought trillions of dollars back to the US over several years? Higher taxes on business and high income earners.
In Trump’s first term he reduced taxes on the highest money-makers, resulting in substantial losses in government revenue, the largest increase to the debt at the time, and an increase in deficit.
Trump’s policies grew the debt. And now far less affluent people are going to pay for it.
Nate, did you feel buyer’s remorse in 2021?
I need to report something very troubling. People should be sitting down when they read this. In the wake of the trouble he caused, throwing the world economy into chaos and crashing the stock markets, Trump is out playing golf. The radical left-wing liberal news media have video proof of Trump on the golf course. The clear implication is that he does not care about the people and should be doing something about the crisis he has caused instead of enjoying himself playing golf.
But wait a minute! Isn’t that the real problem, that he is in the Oval Office doing things? Maybe we would be better off if he played more golf and spent less time destroying everything. Once again, the Democrats and their loyal partners in the media have got their talking points all screwed up. And they think Trump is confused.
Yes, it’s dumb when people focus on the golf instead of the economic chaos and market crashing, Tim.
When the Northeast is frozen.
https://i.ibb.co/Gv63D7HG/gfs-o3mr-150-NA-f096.png
The cult kids have started showing their ignorance of economics over their ignorance of science. Their hatred of Trump appears to have priority over their hatred of reality.
And one of them even seems to believe Keynes knew anything about anything, except homosexuality. These are the kinds of people that sell stocks at the bottom and buy at the top. That’s why we put up with them….
Marmite is a thick, dark, sticky, salty paste made from brewer’s yeast as a byproduct of the British beer making industry. You put it on toast, with butter. It’s an acquired taste and most Americans find it disgusting. It’s not made in America. It was never made in America. It’s never going to be made in America. No one is going to start up a Marmite factory in the US to employ Americans making some stinky, sticky, yeast extract that exactly one American actually likes. No American jobs have been lost to the British Marmite industry. It’s imported. So, why is there a tariff on it? Might as well tariff a bunch of penguins on a remote island somewhere, makes about as much sense.
Ark, import tariffs on things that are not imported have no effect on anyone.
More examples of your incompetence, please.
Ark,
You are a blithering boob. Nothing about the Biden administration made one iota of sense. Yet nothing from you. You love tyranny until it is turned on you. You are a leftist propagandist, nothing more.
The dummery is painful. Marmite is a minor import to the US. No one is going to start a marmite factory in the US. It is pointless to tariff Marmite.
The US is even putting tariffs on countries with which they have a trade surplus. There is no rational justification.
It’s an international shakedown, based on a ridiculous formula that does not include any variables that represent tariffs at all, and comes with a universal 10% tariff on the rest of the world.
The premise and the rhetoric underpinning this fiasco is that every single country in the world is playing the US for fools. That’s what you have to believe to make sense of this universal abrogation of trade agreements.
Tariffs are a tax increase on everyone. How is this a Republican policy?
Trade wars are dumb. They make the cost of living higher for everyone. They made the Great Depression worse.
And why is it even possible for one man, lacking sanity, to inflict this on the world?
Republican’s in Congress need to wake up and reassert their power over taxation.
The economics is absurdly simple.
A product, like clothing, is made in Vietnam where the cost of labor is quite low. We buy the clothing here at a low price.
Trump imposed a 46% on Vietnam. Now the price of these clothes here is going to go up by a lot!
Then presumably the clothing would be made here, at an obviously higher cost.
Then the price will not ever return to its previous low cost.
None of this makes economic sense. Supposedly Trump believes the US needs to return to being a manufacturing powerhouse, possibly to assume some sort of manufacturing independence.
But the universal tariffs actually make it harder for local manufacturers, who now have to spend more on every imported item or material they need. If they are abletosurce from the US, they weren’t buying local because imported was cheaper, so either way, their production costs are going up,and this is going to passed straight on to the consumer. The advantage they may have had from tariffs on competitive products is undermined by tariffs on the raw materials.
Either way, things are going to cost more for Americans.
Then there is the time frame. It takes year to set up a manufacturing plant. It will take years for the vision to realise,and until then there is no economic upside for Americans.
They’ll feel the pinch by July. And if the tariffs are mostly maintained, expect a blue wave at the next midterms as those who voted for prosperity lose faith.
Nate and barry join Ark in their cult ritual of attacking Trump. It is how children handle their hatred.
There’s no use in trying to educate them. Their heads are closed to facts.
They don’t even understand the word “reciprocal”.
“Theres no use in trying to educate them. Their heads are closed to facts.”
Translation from Clintspeak to English:
‘Clint has no sound rebuttal’
Yup, just the usual mindless ad hom from Clint. Nothing substantive to say.
A useful idiot.
The things Nate and I are saying are not controversial. These things are obvious. Universal tariffs raise the cost of everything. That’s not doomsaying or leftist propaganda, it is simple arithmetic.
Trump knows it, which is why he is talking f about “short-term” pain. stephen knows it, which is why he is parroting this line.
It’s not controversial. Purchasing power for families in the US is going to take a significant hit as long as these tariffs run. US manufacturers will have to pay more for every item they import to make their product. These costs will get passed onto consumers, and these costs will reduce or even eliminate the purported advantage putting tariffs on foreign products gives local manufacturers. Also, local manufacturers will bump their prices up anyway, because tariffs will hike prices for imports, so local companies reporting to shareholders will jack their prices up because the market gives them the headroom to do it. That’s what capitalism is about – maximising profit. Companies don’t care about populist ideology.
There are dimmer dihards like Clint who won’t talk straight about these very straightforward impacts, but instead get snide when people bring them up.
If he uses those tariffs to pay down the debt that is a good thing. Have you ever been in deep debt? I haven’t but know people who have. In order to pay down their debt they have to live austerely for a few years until their debt is paid, and then insure they don’t repeat the same stupid mistakes.
Child Nate, “reality” is my “sound rebuttal”.
You and barry can’t stand reality. That’s why you constantly resort to insults and false accusations. Not one of you cult children would be able to pass a simple reality check. For example, what is the end result of reciprocal tariffs?
“Child Nate, reality is my sound rebuttal”
Translation from Clintspeak:
“I still have no substantive response”
As I stated, the kids can’t deal with the simple reality check.
They just keep proving me right.
Gee some day Clint may have a substantive response, but today is not the day, apparently.
“If he uses those tariffs to pay down the debt that is a good thing. Have you ever been in deep debt?”
You can think of no better way to reduce debt than tariffs? The money received won’t be significant compared to the debt, and it relies on two assumptions – foreign exporters will be happy to keep selling the same volume of goods to the US,and Americans will buy the same volume of goods – even though they are more expensive.
Trump’s rhetoric has many supporters believing it will be foreign countries that pay this money. He claimed in his first term, over and over, that China was paying the tariffs he imposed on that country.
There are many different options to reduce debt. Raising taxes is a very straightforward one, much simpler to implement, and much more predictable. This would provide a stable and adjustable method of raising money to pay down the debt. The taxes would need to be pretty steep, though.
Conservatives would hate that, so it’s politically challenging. So Trump is taking money off you in a different way that amounts to the same thing.
But it’s extraordinarily bad planning. Instead of going through congress and making these tariffs law (it couldn’t be done), this has been done by executive order under emergency powers. The tariffs can be immediately undone by the next president. Only a miniscule proportion of the debt could be paid off by then.
Trump’s major weakness is that he doesn’t go through congress. He doesn’t know how to build a coalition on issues. He dictates. So all his actions are EOs, and of those that have been challenged in the courts, most have been struck down or held off. His orders are unlawful.
Even if these tariffs were not patently harmful to the global and US economy, Trump doesn’t have the political nouse to get congress to make them law. Of course, his go-it-alone method is loved by his supporters. It makes him look like a swamp-drainer. But all he’s doing is making a new swamp – a smaller one with him the king of it, and fewer challengers to his rule.
Barry,
So you think raising taxes will help pay down the debt? You’re a good little leftist aren’t you? Make the rich pay their fair share I say!
Nothing wrong with that idea. But even just closing tax loopholes would generate significant revenue.
You think the poor should shoulder the burden of paying down the debt? You think CEOs only making $2 million a year instead of $4 million would hurt them more than the tariffs will affect middle and lower economic class Americans?
Interesting priorities.
Companies were doing fine with a 35% tax, recording higher profits in the years leading up to Trump’s handout. Reducing to 21% was a major loss to revenue.
The idea was to incentivise reshoring and build business, but mostly corporations bought stocks back, benefitting shareholders.
The recent tariffs, of course, are going to work well against corporations investing in new works and job creation.
Fortunately, Trump has been deporting low-pay labour. Now businesses in agriculture, construction, hospitality, and food-processing will have to pay more for labor.
What a boon all this is for job creation.
But maybe I haven’t thought it through. With the gutting of the bureaucracy, social security and health services are going to be tardy or even non-existent in some places. So desperate citizens might step up to take the place of undocumented workers, getting paid off the books with no health care, and of course paying no taxes.
Why import an economic underclass when you can grow one at home?
Thunderstorms in Arkansas and Missouri, snowstorm in North Texas.
Tornadoes cause heavy damage and will move southeast for two days.
The satelites sensors have been quietly recalibrated to match modelz
waming predictions
simple as that
You reckon Roy Spencer is unaware of this, or has he joined the conspiracy?
How would I know, you have to ask him
You don’t think he would be the first to let us know about this?
Let me be plainer. This is BS.
For him admitting this dataset is a fake fraud would be a confession that he completely wasted his whole life career
Quite unlikely he would do that
to be plainer you don’t know squat how thigs work
I am going to make a wild guess that Dr. Spencer is a subject matter expert (SME) on satellite calibration standards and methods, and you know almost nothing. Just a guess.
Dachshund
” The satelites sensors have been quietly recalibrated to match modelz
waming predictions
simple as that ”
Why don’t you give barry a scientific proof of what you claim?
You behave here exactly like do the lunar spin deniers on this blog – or like Robertson claiming that no one gave ever a proof for the existence of the measles virus.
*
The most recent low anomaly wrt 1991-2020 just before the 1998 El Nino was
1997 4 -0.45
The succeeding peak anomaly was
1998 2 +1.15
Difference 1997-98: +1.60 increase in 10 months
*
The most recent low anomaly before the newest peak was
2023 1 -0.42
The succeeding peak anomaly was
2024 3 +1.24
Difference 2023-24: +1.66 increase in 14 months
Thus, the sudden increase in 1997-98 was even more pronounced than the sudden increase in 202324 (0.16 C/month compared to 0.12 C/month).
*
Were the ‘satelites sensors quietly recalibrated to match modelz
waming predictions’ in 1997-98 too?
Really?
The S&P 500 lost $6.6 TRILLION on Thursday and Friday alone, the largest two-day wipeout of shareholder value on record. That’s your retirement, college saving, medical funds, investment capital.
Trump is currently on social media, between holes on the golf course apparently, literally begging the Fed to cut interest rates in a desperate bid to slow the damage.
We’re looking square at inflation, stalling growth, unemployment, a weakening dollar, and a recession is nearly inevitable at this point. Even Trump’s own TikTok deal stalled.
Are we great yet or what?
A reminder that most Americans (68.41%) did not vote for this:
Voted For Trump= 31.59%
Voted For Harris= 30.65%
Voted For Third Party= 2.66%
Did Not Vote= 35.10%
Wow looks like no disagreement with: https://www.drroyspencer.com/2025/04/uah-v6-1-global-temperature-update-for-march-2025-0-58-deg-c/#comment-1701804
SOLAR MINIMUM UPDATE
Wow, looks like no disagreement with:
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2025/04/uah-v6-1-global-temperature-update-for-march-2025-0-58-deg-c/#comment-1701850
Besides, cheers from Mobile, Alabama:
https://bsky.app/profile/dadman03.bsky.social/post/3lm3q22ulgc2n