Home/BlogThe Version 6.1 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for March, 2025 was +0.58 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean, up from the February, 2025 anomaly of +0.50 deg. C.
The Version 6.1 global area-averaged linear temperature trend (January 1979 through March 2025) remains at +0.15 deg/ C/decade (+0.22 C/decade over land, +0.13 C/decade over oceans).
The following table lists various regional Version 6.1 LT departures from the 30-year (1991-2020) average for the last 15 months (record highs are in red).
| YEAR | MO | GLOBE | NHEM. | SHEM. | TROPIC | USA48 | ARCTIC | AUST |
| 2024 | Jan | +0.80 | +1.02 | +0.58 | +1.20 | -0.19 | +0.40 | +1.12 |
| 2024 | Feb | +0.88 | +0.95 | +0.81 | +1.17 | +1.31 | +0.86 | +1.16 |
| 2024 | Mar | +0.88 | +0.96 | +0.80 | +1.26 | +0.22 | +1.05 | +1.34 |
| 2024 | Apr | +0.94 | +1.12 | +0.76 | +1.15 | +0.86 | +0.88 | +0.54 |
| 2024 | May | +0.78 | +0.77 | +0.78 | +1.20 | +0.05 | +0.20 | +0.53 |
| 2024 | June | +0.69 | +0.78 | +0.60 | +0.85 | +1.37 | +0.64 | +0.91 |
| 2024 | July | +0.74 | +0.86 | +0.61 | +0.97 | +0.44 | +0.56 | -0.07 |
| 2024 | Aug | +0.76 | +0.82 | +0.69 | +0.74 | +0.40 | +0.88 | +1.75 |
| 2024 | Sep | +0.81 | +1.04 | +0.58 | +0.82 | +1.31 | +1.48 | +0.98 |
| 2024 | Oct | +0.75 | +0.89 | +0.60 | +0.63 | +1.90 | +0.81 | +1.09 |
| 2024 | Nov | +0.64 | +0.87 | +0.41 | +0.53 | +1.12 | +0.79 | +1.00 |
| 2024 | Dec | +0.62 | +0.76 | +0.48 | +0.52 | +1.42 | +1.12 | +1.54 |
| 2025 | Jan | +0.45 | +0.70 | +0.21 | +0.24 | -1.06 | +0.74 | +0.48 |
| 2025 | Feb | +0.50 | +0.55 | +0.45 | +0.26 | +1.04 | +2.10 | +0.87 |
| 2025 | Mar | +0.58 | +0.74 | +0.41 | +0.40 | +1.25 | +1.23 | +1.20 |
The full UAH Global Temperature Report, along with the LT global gridpoint anomaly image for March, 2025, and a more detailed analysis by John Christy, should be available within the next several days here.
The monthly anomalies for various regions for the four deep layers we monitor from satellites will be available in the next several days at the following locations:
+0.5 degrees is the new normal
In before the pointless bickering starts. La Nia conditions are present but expected to move to ENSO-neutral this month, and odds are it will remain so through the summer, so it’s gonna be an interesting future. Hopefully the work presented here will not be defunded any time soon.
Indeed, I am also following this with great interest. It is also apparent that the forecast of ENSO seems rather difficult given the diverging results of the models.
It is difficult. At 3 months out it’s around 80% – close to the success rate of weather predictions over the coming week – with lower odds the further out, just over 50% at 12 months out (from memory).
There is the ‘Spring Predictability Barrier’ which makes for weak forecasts that predict beyond the next Spring.
The 13 mo average line sustaining a 0.4C or greater increase over the 2015-2017 path of the line.
So what is your prediction for the next few months?
The near near term is that the T will continue at its present level, given that we are in ENSO neutral conditions.
After that is mostly dependent on what ENSO does next.
What gives you the idea that I should be able to predict the future of ENSO better than any actual expert?
So you are covered if it goes up or down.
Can u offer any better?
Apparently you can’t.
So you have nothing of substance, and you are just trolling..
Got it.
You are covered if it goes up or down.
Why would you expect me to be able to predict the weather in 6 months?
Warmer than I expected, and still little sign of temperatures returning to pre 2023 levels.
The 3rd warmest March on record. Close to March 2016.
2024 0.88
2016 0.64
2025 0.58
2010 0.39
1998 0.35
2020 0.34
2004 0.23
2019 0.22
2022 0.19
2017 0.18
2023 0.18
And 0.4 above the March of the ENSO similar year 2017.
So what is your prediction for the next few months?
You have to know what is causing it before you can create a predictive model. Nate has discovered another hole in his GHE theory.
April foolishness is over Stephen.
Wow, it took Nate two days to think that one.
Can’t take your posts seriously anymore, Stephen.
My simple forecast based on linear regression from the first three months a linear trend over time, predicts 2025 will be 0.45 +/- 0.17C. That gives a 60% chance of being the second warmest year on record, but with a reasonable chance it could drop down a few places.
https://i.imgur.com/TH1RPKO.png
However, given the unusual nature of temperatures recently, I won;t be putting money on it.
“predicts 2025 will be 0.45 +/- 0.17C”
We shall see won’t we.
Good to see the gridded data is already available. Here’s my global map in the style of the official UAH map.
https://i.imgur.com/6otGxmk.png
and the same but using a gradient fill.
https://i.imgur.com/EsUUvyB.png
Well done work, Bellman.
I wouldn’t wonder much if Bellman’s first name was… Mark.
Even with AGW the record temps of the last 2 years won’t be beaten for a while, perhaps more than a decade. Stay tuned for the next new pause!
So you’re saying CO2 is going to stop rising?
if you mean on the UAH troposphere record, perhaps. Looking at surface temperatures, highly unlikely it would go that long. Longest since 1981 was 6 yeas without a record.
Perhaps less likely re the surface records, but not out of the realm of possibility that 2024 will not be beaten for a decade or more.
So CO2 is going to stop rising? Is that your prediction?
The Tunga Eruption effects is still going strong which is why it hasn’t cooled down much.
The Tonga eruption resulted in short term cooling.
Schoeberl et al. examined how Hungas eruption affected climate in the Southern Hemisphere over the following 2 years. They found that in the year following the eruption, the cooling effect from the volcanic aerosols reflecting sunlight into outer space was stronger than the warming caused by water vapors trapping heat in the atmosphere. But most of the volcanos effects had dissipated by the end of 2023.
So youre citing a paper that predicts cooling to explain the largest warming spike in satellite historyone thats also the most inconsistent with ocean trends, which usually forecast with the troposphereand youre serious? Im struggling to follow the logic here. It seems the only valid interpretation is academia said it, so it must be true. Can you explain why that explanation holds up better than simply admitting the modelbuilt for the first wet volcano of its kindmight be wrong? Either the aerosol forcing estimate or the warming from stratospheric water vapor must be off, right? Otherwise, its like saying, My model says Pinatubo caused warming, so the observed cooling must have come from something else. Is that really what were calling objective reality now?
Cooling in the Stratosphere yes but not in the Troposphere.
When the Stratosphere cools down the Troposphere warms, and vice versa.
A warming troposphere does not necessarily correspond to a cooling stratosphere.
Factors that would cause the troposphere to warm without the corresponding cooling of stratosphere would include an increase in TSI flux or an increase in geothermal flux. There may be other factors as well. These are just examples.
Factors that would cause the troposphere to warm AND the stratosphere to cool would include an increase in GHGs or a decrease in some aerosols. There may be other factors as well. These are just examples.
Agreed tommy. Even though the HTE is slowing dissipating, it is still having a warming effect.
https://postimg.cc/06yBjXsz
There were no appreciable warming effects from the Tunga eruption.
It hasn’t cooled down because TSI is still very high in 2025.
https://i.postimg.cc/3rjGy8zG/CERES-TSI-Composite-Feb-25.jpg
Many people like to think they’ve falsified solar activity forcing.
Even if those values were correct, they still would not account for all the temperature increase since the H-T eruption.
Then, there’s the clear correlation with UAH, which doesn’t exist with the solar “constant”.
So no, the insignificant variation in TSI didn’t do it.
“… the insignificant variation in TSI didn’t do it.”
Clint your comment doesn’t even count as a valid argument.
Let’s see how significant the SC#25 TSI really was – in February, the 63rd month of this solar cycle, the sun had emitted 26.3 W/m^2 more than the last solar cycle #24 in 5.25 years, or 5.0 W/m^2/yr
This result is then divided by the canonical 4 to get 1.25 W/m^2/yr in average solar climate forcing over each of the last 5.25 years.
Additionally, the last 9 solar cycles TSI has imparted an alternating pattern in the eastern Pacific Nino regions that affects albedo particularly during/after the solar minimum until the next El Nino.
https://i.postimg.cc/7hvjBJz5/Solar-Cycles-and-Tropical-Step-Changes.png
The combination of lower albedo and higher TSI, as computed using the S-B equation, was more than enough to supply the absorbed solar. I estimated the direct TSI contribution to the ASR to be 36%, but it was TSI that set the table, changing the albedo, so it was all TSI.
https://i.postimg.cc/4NFFbVW9/ASR-and-Had-SST4.png
Just let me know Clint when you have determined the climate forcing for HTHH or any other forcing you can dream up to compete with TSI.
BW said: Lets see how significant the SC#25 TSI really was in February, the 63rd month of this solar cycle, the sun had emitted 26.3 W/m^2 more than the last solar cycle #24 in 5.25 years, or 5.0 W/m^2/yr.
That is patently false.
The average TSI over 63 months starting from the beginning of SC25 from 2019/12 to 2025/02 is 1362.24 W.m-2.
The average TSI over 63 months starting from the beginning of SC24 from 2008/01 to 2013/03 is 1361.73 W.m-2.
That is a difference of 1362.24 – 1361.73 = 0.51 W.m-2. That isn’t even remotely close to your claimed 26.3 W.m-2.
BW said: This result is then divided by the canonical 4 to get 1.25 W/m^2/yr in average solar climate forcing over each of the last 5.25 years.
Again, this is patently false.
The actual radiative force is 0.51 W.m-2 * (1 – 0.3) / 4 = 0.09 W.m-2. That isn’t even remotely close to your claimed 1.25 W.m-2.
This data comes from the LASP Interactive Solar Irradiance Datacenter.
Bob,
It is easy to test if there is a correlation between high solar activity and temperature over the past 15 solar cycles. If there is any, it must be very weak and overshadowed by other factors.
https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1Of7yZ4zPw26ptxB0CqKHkwmJwhZfhgszYsw9O7tdmgk/edit?usp=sharing
My analysis shows a small correlation between TSI and UAH TLT. Using the single factor removal technique in conjunction with machine learning training against 5 independent variables it equates to about R^2 = 0.02 at 0.1 C per W.m-2 with the goal of minimizing RMSE.
Its a lot harder to detect is the global effect of speed changes in earth’s orbit.
Mean TSI changes at an assumed static distance (1au for example) which is the mean distance from earth to sun d0oesn’t do the job.
It’s akin to setting a one foot measurement standard as the Emperor’s first born foot size.
Also measuring TSI in watts doesn’t tell you how much energy is being received. Thats like just looking at a wattage label on an variable speed drill and thinking you know how much energy it used last year.
What you want to measure is watthours, not watts.
Changes to earth’s ellipticity makes for 13 to 14% deference in how much sunlight varies over time due to distance changes. And the distance changes will affect speeds through the hottest and coldest parts of the orbit.
Unfortunately I have never seen a chart that correctly documents those variables for TSI.
I guess some people need to read a few papers about Hunga Tonga which talk a bit less about water vapor and a bit more about SO2 and aerosols…
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1. Tracking the 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai Aerosol Cloud in the Upper and Middle Stratosphere Using Space-Based Observations
Taha & al. (2022)
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL100091
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2. Growth and Global Persistence of Stratospheric Sulfate Aerosols From the 2022 Hunga TongaHunga Ha’apai Volcanic Eruption
Boichu & al. (2023)
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023JD039010
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3. volution of the Climate Forcing During the Two Years After the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai Eruption
Schoeberl & al. (2024)
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024JD041296
Its difficult to believe that these natural variations in temperature that we see across the entire chart above are chaotic. There may be a chaotic element to them but it is clear that we recently had an astronomical event that resulted in about 5 extra days close to the sun vs further way from the sun over how much we had in 1980 as verified by the US Naval Observatory.
We can also clearly see via spectral analysis of outgoing longwave radiation that frequencies in CO2 bands are far more saturated than in the water vapor bands, such that water vapor feedbacks would be very robust for any increase in total sunlight observed on earth. I figure the reason for this in view of how much water vapor is in the air compared to CO2 is that water vapor is not evenly distributed and that shows up with less blockage of LW in the water vapor frequencies when only mean global outgoing LW is estimated. All that is pretty uncertain especially as we consider clouds and precipitable water in the atmosphere.
With three known variables for sunlight 1) orbit perturbances of speed changes of earth through its orbit as confirmed by the US Naval Observatory. 2) year over year changes in earth’s orbit ellipticity brought about by the same. 3) solar activity that affects the amount of high frequency radiation received by earth.
That and planet movement tables strongly suggests that the decline in the effect is going to continue to move slowly over the next year and a half or more.
Sea ice feedback appears to be kicking in about two years after this anomalous event kicked in so we should expect this will tend to slow the declining effects of Jupiter moving into what is likely several years of strong cooling influence beginning this summer.
But the best we can expect of it is a neutralization of the warming effects of the other planets over the next few years. We have seen recently that it can take a long time for the ocean to cough up its heat with ocean adjustment time periods estimated to be around 10 years. Thats probably because of the GHE and atmospheric temperature is a factor along with absorbed solar radiation directly into the ocean as opposed to only on its surface.
The recent update to solar activity now recognized here https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
that the 2019 predictions were quite low. You can see by how much by selecting the 2019 prediction in the small drop down box in the lower left of the graph.
The current prediction doesn’t have solar activity dropping below the long term average until around late summer 2027 and not reaching a minimum until 2031
We can expect a small warming bump after that with Jupiter moving back to the warming side by 2032. But Jupiter will not catch Saturn again until 2040 when they will combine their effects on the cool side which hasn’t happened since 1980.
As a caution against those who wish to dispute this, all the above is operating from an assumed non-warming influence (detrended to zero) estimation of the effects of increasing CO2.
That certainly doesn’t have to be the case and I am not predicting that to be the case.
Instead I am simply operating from a position of uncertainty about the effects of increasing CO2 and thus have not attempted to plot it. So this is not an attack on CO2 worriers and special interest warriors. The only thing I am certain of is that some of the warming experienced since 1980 is attributable to the items noted above and not part of any warming from CO2 as CO2 does not affect the sun nor earth’s speed through the warmest and coolest parts of its orbit.
The new Monckton Pause starts in 2023/06 and is 21 months. The average of this pause is 0.70 C which is 0.49 C higher than the average of the previous pause of 0.21 C which lasted 107 months starting in 2014/06.
My prediction for 2025 is 0.43 +/- 0.16 C.
Really appreciate this long-term, extensive dataset. This will be an invaluable historical record for the development of climate change. Please keep it up.
Yes, this space-based dataset nicely takes readings averaged out over a larger area than relying on one lone ground station representing a large area of varying characteristics.
This half-century of data also clearly shows there is no mystical feedback loops that will accelerate the warming. It’s been 1.5C/century for decades, in spite of ENSO, Tunga, climate policies and even the industrialization of Asia.
Second- and third-order polynomials fit the data than a linear model, suggesting that the warming is accelerating.
” … suggesting that the warming is accelerating. ”
No need to be an alarmist to understand you. It’s enough to look at the polynomials:
https://i.postimg.cc/sgytGv69/UAH-6-1-LT-Globe-lin-vs-2p-vs-3p.png
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If there were no acceleration, the green, yellow and red lines simply would coincide.
UAH Mean and Median Global for Mar 2025
https://climatedatablog.wordpress.com/2025/04/03/uah-mean-and-median-global-for-mar-2025/
UAH Mean and Median Tropics for Mar 2025
https://climatedatablog.wordpress.com/2025/04/03/uah-mean-and-median-tropics-for-mar-2025/
Are you expecting the 5 y mean to follow that rapidly rising projection?
That would be high rate of accelerated warming.
Nate
The so-called ‘projection’s in Blindsley H00d’s (RLH’s) graphs are nothing else than the right end of a multiply applied 60 month Savitzky-Golay (SG) smoothing.
Unlike the 60 month cascaded running mean which ends 30 + 25 + 19 = 74 months before the end of the time series it is applied to, a SG smoothing applied to a time series starts at the time series’ begin and ends where the time series ends – like do linear trends or polynomials, see my post above.
To make the SG end looking like a ‘projection’, Blindsley H00d hides the beginning of the SG.
And his 12 month median computation still is wrong but he never admits his mistakes let alone would he ever correct them.
Here is how correct median computations for UAH 6.1 LT look like:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/174CxYCkDKfQMUhAR4TnWXeKj58yhIiCYvCOF4koSfec/edit?gid=2068381560#gid=2068381560
Strange how your ‘filter’ lets through high frequency.
The March reading seems to support the theory that there was some kind of sudden event or effect a few years ago, and that effect is now dissipating. The big question is the same as every month, and that is where does it go from here? The potential for month-to-month variability is large enough that no single month really has much significance for the future direction. The red line is still going down, so at least one peak is over.
I think future peaks and troughs will wiggle around the 0.4C above the the current baseline. 1987-1997 averaged around -.2, 2000-2015 around 0, and 2015-2023 wiggled around the 0.2C level so after this big peak finishes it’s run I think temps will settle in around the 0.4C level. I’m using the 1998 peak as model.
That’s just eyeballing a graph without consideration of the underlying physics, so no guarantees or bets.
SOLAR MINIMUM UPDATE
Billionaire businessman Mark Cuban predicted economic disaster for Alabama and other southern states if the Department of Government Efficiency continues on its trajectory of slashing federal workers and cutting spending that bleeds into the private sector.
I think there is going to be a Red Rural Recession and soon if all the cuts continue as is, Cuban posted to the Bluesky social media platform on Wednesday.
All the firings, cancelling of grants and contracts with companies, the closing of offices, disproportionately impact small towns, cities and states, Cuban continued. Their finances will be turned upside.
https://www.al.com/politics/2025/04/mark-cuban-issues-dire-prediction-amid-elon-musks-doge-cuts-red-rural-recession.html
Well done, everyone!
The monthly UAH satellite lower tropo temperatures for March 2025 are out, thank you dr Spencer, showing an increase over AUSTRALIA.
There is much discussion about whether the Hunga Tonga eruption of 15th Jan 2022 plays a part.
The following graph does not prove anything.
It is, however, suggestive that Hunga Tonga could be playing a part.
Geoff S
https://www.geoffstuff.com/htstart.jpg
Geoff Sherrington
I’m wondering about your chart which actually leads to a massive overestimation of HTE’s effect in your Australia corner.
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1. Here is a comparison of the full monthly UAH 6.1 LT ‘AUS’ record to a time series constructed out of on average over 600 GHCN daily stations in Australia active since Dec 1978:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ALtyse1bAtTyNh9uMzCMNw1lJbGbHEpK/view
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2. The overestimation becomes even more visible when restricting the monthly series to the period you used above:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1KEpnmIbe3YusZtWnjEa3D8witx7u3vWf/view
{ The linear estimates in C / decade for 2015-2024 are
– GHCN daily: -0.08 +- 0.21
– UAH LT: 0.38 +- 0.17
to be compared to those for the entire sat period:
– GHCN daily: 0.18 +- 0.02
– UAH LT: 0.21 +- 0.02
}
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Top 10 of a descending sort of monthly anomalies for UAH 6.1 LT over Australia since Dec 1978:
2024 8: 1.73 (C)
2024 12: 1.54
2002 6: 1.53
1998 5: 1.50
2023 7: 1.49
2009 8: 1.44
2004 6: 1.39
2016 5: 1.33
1997 2: 1.29
2023 8: 1.29
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HTE ‘s effect is since beginning grossly overestimated by those who exclusively talk about stratospheric water uptake while ‘ignoring’ the effect of the aerosols resulting from SO2 upload.
Crisis over? There never was any crisis! Stay calm and carry on.
The Moyhu surface temperature index showed a similar small rise of 0.04C. It was the second warmest March in the record, after 2024.
https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2025/04/march-global-surface-templs-up-004-from.html
It seems very strange for the TLT dataset to show NH land anomaly going from
01/2025 1.06
02/2025 0.56
03/2025 1.07
That drives Global Land anomaly to go
01/2025 0.92
02/2025 0.58
03/2025 0.87
Is this correct?
Everybody still feeling good about cost of living, the economy, etc?
Anybody feeling any buyers remorse yet?
I can understand needing to explain complex relationships, but this is really simple. Panic-sellers and people who need to sell assets on the short term are getting hurt. Experienced investors who invest for the long term and maintain adequate cash assets (think money market funds) will just ride it out like we always do. The markets will recover. People who think they can time the markets are just as foolish as people who think computer simulations can predict the future.
Competent people say the fundamentals of the US economy are still very strong. This problem is best described as “self-induced”. The self who did the inducing needs to do a better job of listening to people. Others would say we need short term pain for long term gains. My crystal ball is very fuzzy, but conservative media are reporting the other quotes from world leaders, in addition to the ones you hear about fighting back from the left-wing liberal media. Many governments are expressing a strong desire to negotiate new trade agreements. Stay tuned.
“will just ride it out like we always do”
A reminder of Lord Keynes:
“Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”
But this one seems rational.
Tim,
You always seem confident that our President is acting rationally. A month ago, you were sure his tariff threats were just leverage to get things he wanted from Canada and Mexico. And he would succeed.
But now we see that was not the case at all. He likes the idea of tariffs. And now he has started an unprovoked world trade war.
Hopefully people like you will figure out what will be the predictable economic consequences.
Yes, all those who thought tariffs were merely a strategic threat have moved on to new and improved rationalisations.
“Competent people say the fundamentals of the US economy are still very strong.”
No doubt these are not the people who were trash-talking the economy while Biden was in power. But yes, Trump has the previous government to thank for a fundamentally sound economy. Now he is wrecking it. None of his followers voted for the economy to get worse, but people who have faith in Trump would be happy for him to burn the constitution if he told them it was necessary.
So the previous administration adding 7 trillion dollars of debt made the economy fundamentally sound?
You saying the 8 trillion Trump added make the economy unsound?
Debt accumulates under every president, conservative and Republican,and the fitness of the US economy is based on a range of issues, from jobs to inflation, to GDP, deficit reduction, etc. The US economy rebounded fairly effectively from COVID, slashing the unemployment rate, with moderate wage growth, a strengthening stock market.
Inflation increased to a high point, then receded to usuallows by the end of 2024. While the deficit was reduced in the 4 years after the Trump administration, the debt increased significantly in real terms, though not as a percentage of accumulated debt.
Yes, Trump inherited a pretty robust economy from the previous government (including congress – it’s not the president who sets spending).
“Debt accumulates under every president, conservative and Republican”
Meant Democrat and Republican, of course.
Stephen, if prices rise this year, that is all on Trump. If the economy tanks this year, that is all on Trump.
As you should know, gov revenue goes down when the economy tanks. So the Debt will increase. That will be all on Trump.
Nate,
What if there is deflation this year? Will that be on Trump?
If the economy picks up, and this can be shown to be due to tariffs, then Trump can take the credit.
At best,though unlikely, by the end of the year a few industries may be economically healthier due to tariffs giving them an advantage. I don’t know which industries. Maybe auto – which has been lobbying hard for Trump to make exemptions on the material they import.
And there is the point. If a company requires foreign material at any point in their production,they will now be paying more for those materials. This cost will be passed onto consumers, reducing the advantage that tariffs supposedly give the industry.
But taken as a whole, these tariffs are going to be a significant nett negative for the vast majority of Americans who are not wealthy enough to dispose some of their income to higher prices.
Barry,
The economy is not going to turn around. We are at a Grand Supercycle Top. You leftists will exploit it the best just like you do anytime there are economic crises. Leftists do not care if it all crumbles into a pile of rubble as long as you are on top of the pile declaring yourselves “Kings of the Pile” of rubble.
Stephen, if there is deflation then we’re in a depression.
Yeah, what’s your point?
The U-turns that Trump cultists make as he breaks his election promises is as turgid as it is predictable.
After complaining about the economy and voting for Trump, who promised them an instant turnaround, to make it all rosy again, they now argue that a steep economic downturn is as needful as it is inevitable.
What muppets, parroting Trumpian apologists without blinking as they step over the vast gulf between what they were certain of last year to its exact opposite.
Should Trump invade Greenland they will nod their vacuous heads in agreement. And when Trump insists that he needs to ignore parts of constitution to Make America Great Again, they will become little lawyers to argue the case for him.
“Grand Supercycle” – the latest apologist talking point no doubt. Here come the little economists to broadcast the newest rationalisation.
Barry,
I didn’t vote for Trump because I thought he could turn it around. Presidents can’t turn an economy around. The best they can do is try to remove regulations to get out of the economy’s way. We are at a market top of epic proportions. This downturn could last decades or centuries. This is a top akin to what preceded the South Sea or Tulip mania bubble or possibly the Dark Ages. It has nothing to do with Trump. I voted for Trump because I thought he would be the best fit to manage it initially, he and Musk. But this is way bigger than two men, or politics or anything. In ten years the geographic boundaries of the planet will look quite different. You leftists will have your little kingdoms of tyranny around but they won’t be what you think they are.
Barry,
Do you know why most Americans voted for Trump. Because he didn’t try to use the Department of Labor to force every working American to take the vax. Only a tyrant would do that. I know you leftists love your tyrannical policies but then why don’t you go live in North Korea or Australia? Oh wait, you do.
“Presidents cant turn an economy around”
But apparently they can cause economic meltdowns.
Trump is just reacting to what he’s seeing and the information he is privy to. The money supply started shrinking last year, the market topped in December, banks are in trouble, the Fed is out of bullets, Trump is trying to do something. Nothing is going to work. All the King’s horses and all the King’s men, can’t put Humpty together again. Over 100 years of progressive ideology, the FED, income tax, entitlements, the New Deal, Great Society, and on and on, has finally done us in.
If the Democrats had not stolen the election in 2020 Trump might have had a chance to prolong this awhile but it has been approximately 234 years since the Constitution was ratified by all 13 colonies. So, Trump would have been fighting nature.
Or, or the guy is simply power mad.
There was no economic crisis until now Stephen.
Oh yeah, no economic crisis? Where have you been for 4 years? Prices have gone through the roof. Have you tried to buy a car lately? Or a ribeye? Where do you live, Nate?
“I didn’t vote for Trump because I thought he could turn it around.”
Ok then. You will be among a minority of Trump supporters who won’t be disappointed.
August 2024: “Starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again, to bring down the prices of all goods.”
September 2024: “We’re going to get the prices down. We have to get them down. It’s too much. Groceries, cars, everything. We’re going to get the prices down.”
October 2024: “Starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again. We’ll do that. We’ve got to bring it down.”
November 4 2024: “A vote for Trump means your groceries will be cheaper.”
Bringing down the cost of living was the 2nd most important thing for Trump voters. Concerns about inflation and cost of living was often the top issue for all voters, particularly Republican voters.
https://www.bankrate.com/personal-finance/2024-election-and-the-economy-survey/
https://navigatorresearch.org/post-election-poll-how-economic-issues-played-out-in-house-battleground-districts-in-the-election/
https://2024electionpoll.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/1.-Results-by-race.pdf
Lowering the prices of essential goods polled as the most important way of easing financial pressure with the 2024 election in mind.
https://www.nefe.org/news/2024/10/47-percent-of-us-adults-believe-personal-finances-may-be-impacted-by-2024-election-results.aspx
Strangely, Trump’s campaign messaging did not ever let his supporters know that a vote for him was a vote for years of economic hardship. I wonder if he would have won with an honest campaign…
“Oh yeah, no economic crisis? Where have you been for 4 years? Prices have gone through the roof. ”
But you’re ok with that getting even worse as a direct result of Trump’s tariffs?
Biden didn’t cause the global issue of higher prices. Every country suffered that post-COVID and with the Ukraine war. But Trump is going to be sole owner of the coming major price hikes that you’ve been defending, stephen. The very thing you now call an economic crisis.
I don’t think Trump has a chance of making the econony better. It is too late. I know he promised he would, but he can’t. But, still Trump is much better than the alternative to lead us through the coming years. You guys are still consumed in your little paradigm. Your little paradigm is over. You Australians should start thinking Mad Max.
You are actually satisfied with the notion of economic armageddon.
None of this was inevitable or needful. But at least you’re not trying to pretend it’s not going to happen, like so many Trump sycophants. No, you are patting him on the back for having the guts to hurt poor people, while he and his rich friends can keep on sipping cocktails.
You know what would have brought trillions of dollars back to the US over several years? Higher taxes on business and high income earners.
In Trump’s first term he reduced taxes on the highest money-makers, resulting in substantial losses in government revenue, the largest increase to the debt at the time, and an increase in deficit.
Trump’s policies grew the debt. And now far less affluent people are going to pay for it.
“Have you tried to buy a car lately? Or a ribeye?”
Yes, bought another Toyota thankfully last summer. Now the price of it will be more than $10,000 higher.
Even though they are partly built in your state!
Thanks to one person. Who wants to force Americans to buy inferior products at a higher price.
Is that your version of freedom and liberty?
Who was elected on the promise that he would lower prices.
Are you able to think for yourself, to see that this policy will do the opposite?
Nate,
The autos made here won’t have tariffs on them. So, you can still buy your Toyotas. Trump just wants everyone to play fair. He’s trying to help the American worker. However, the economy is at a natural cycle high. There is a meltdown on the way and there is nothing or no one under the Sun that can stop it, including Trump.
The autos made in the US are going to be more expensive, because some of the parts are imports. And when prices go up on imported cars, local makers will jack their prices up, because they are beholden to shareholders, not to consumers, or to Trump’s vision.
“However, the economy is at a natural cycle high. There is a meltdown on the way”
Not what we heard pre election from Trump.
Do normal people in the US actually believe all that rubbish about the “stolen election”? I always thought it was just the madman ranting.
Nate, did you feel buyer’s remorse in 2021?
Stephen says: ” Trump just wants everyone to play fair “.
I wish that was the case! However, reality is that all of his major trading partners have relatively low tariff rates – much lower than what he is proposing. https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1i9MWHeoPw_nd4ffvwr5oPTFoQ3JC30v55iALMVM_WUU/edit?usp=sharing
I need to report something very troubling. People should be sitting down when they read this. In the wake of the trouble he caused, throwing the world economy into chaos and crashing the stock markets, Trump is out playing golf. The radical left-wing liberal news media have video proof of Trump on the golf course. The clear implication is that he does not care about the people and should be doing something about the crisis he has caused instead of enjoying himself playing golf.
But wait a minute! Isn’t that the real problem, that he is in the Oval Office doing things? Maybe we would be better off if he played more golf and spent less time destroying everything. Once again, the Democrats and their loyal partners in the media have got their talking points all screwed up. And they think Trump is confused.
Yes, it’s dumb when people focus on the golf instead of the economic chaos and market crashing, Tim.
Is this a ‘look a squirrel’ by Tim to try to distract us from the unfolding Trump-made disaster?
FYI, the reality is that politics is in part optics.
Have you decided yet whether this gov policy is rational or not?
I didn’t see him swing a golf club on the libral news media, but they did show him riding around in a golf cart on a golf course.
So, you decide if he was playing golf or not.
A three day tournament, apparently, which he won, yet again. Amazing golfer.
When is the Roy Spencer best seller…
Coming about why he is still pretending???
School funding?
Lab funding?
It’s not a beach house or kids college fund.
The man has integrity… There is literally 0 evidence of him.Probably literally giving anything we all know he’s an honest man.
Except that he knows he is publicly FULL OF SHIT.
Problem is DR SPENCER… THAT IN ITSELF MAKES YOU A LIAR.
THERE IS NO WAY YOU COULD TRULY BELIEVE THE DENILISM…
HENCE..
PROPOGANDA YOU STILL LIKE SILENTLY STAND BEHIND.
I WRITE THIS CRAS COMMENT BECAUSE YOU’RE 77.
I REALLY THOUGHT YOU WERE LATE 60S.
BUT 77 IS CLOSE TO THE END.
JUST DONT DO OUT PUSHING BULLSHIT.
PLEASE DON’T YOU AFFECT SO MANY PEOPLE.
IM 42. 20 YEARS AGO I WOULD HAVE CRIED THAT OUR MILITARY NEEDED DEFUNDING TO PAY FOR REAL LIBERAL ISSUES.
I’M 42 NOW STILL A LIBERAL AND I BELIEVE THE OPPOSITE. I LOVE OUR MILITARY.
ECONOMY + MILITARY IS WORLD BREAKING.
My point is I am still who I am at my core but my view on that CHANGED because I learned i read and grew the world everything and now I completely disagree with my younger self on that.
Obviously the clock is ticking…
In clear and certain terms.If you die this way with this current view, you will go down as nothing.You will be nothing in history because you’re WRONG publicly.
Not in Roy’s house.
If you can at least get real with yourself a little bit.You will be remembered As a smart man cause a smart man would never go down lying for no fucking reason.
Apologize for my grammar talk to text sucks.We all know that have a good day everybody…
Thanks for your time DOCTOR SPENCER.
*********
I’m not sure what point(s) you are making here. And my age is 69, not 77. –Roy
When the Northeast is frozen.
https://i.ibb.co/Gv63D7HG/gfs-o3mr-150-NA-f096.png
The cult kids have started showing their ignorance of economics over their ignorance of science. Their hatred of Trump appears to have priority over their hatred of reality.
And one of them even seems to believe Keynes knew anything about anything, except homosexuality. These are the kinds of people that sell stocks at the bottom and buy at the top. That’s why we put up with them….
Marmite is a thick, dark, sticky, salty paste made from brewer’s yeast as a byproduct of the British beer making industry. You put it on toast, with butter. It’s an acquired taste and most Americans find it disgusting. It’s not made in America. It was never made in America. It’s never going to be made in America. No one is going to start up a Marmite factory in the US to employ Americans making some stinky, sticky, yeast extract that exactly one American actually likes. No American jobs have been lost to the British Marmite industry. It’s imported. So, why is there a tariff on it? Might as well tariff a bunch of penguins on a remote island somewhere, makes about as much sense.
Ark, import tariffs on things that are not imported have no effect on anyone.
More examples of your incompetence, please.
Ark,
You are a blithering boob. Nothing about the Biden administration made one iota of sense. Yet nothing from you. You love tyranny until it is turned on you. You are a leftist propagandist, nothing more.
The dummery is painful. Marmite is a minor import to the US. No one is going to start a marmite factory in the US. It is pointless to tariff Marmite.
The US is even putting tariffs on countries with which they have a trade surplus. There is no rational justification.
It’s an international shakedown, based on a ridiculous formula that does not include any variables that represent tariffs at all, and comes with a universal 10% tariff on the rest of the world.
The premise and the rhetoric underpinning this fiasco is that every single country in the world is playing the US for fools. That’s what you have to believe to make sense of this universal abrogation of trade agreements.
Tariffs are a tax increase on everyone. How is this a Republican policy?
Trade wars are dumb. They make the cost of living higher for everyone. They made the Great Depression worse.
And why is it even possible for one man, lacking sanity, to inflict this on the world?
Republican’s in Congress need to wake up and reassert their power over taxation.
The economics is absurdly simple.
A product, like clothing, is made in Vietnam where the cost of labor is quite low. We buy the clothing here at a low price.
Trump imposed a 46% on Vietnam. Now the price of these clothes here is going to go up by a lot!
Then presumably the clothing would be made here, at an obviously higher cost.
Then the price will not ever return to its previous low cost.
None of this makes economic sense. Supposedly Trump believes the US needs to return to being a manufacturing powerhouse, possibly to assume some sort of manufacturing independence.
But the universal tariffs actually make it harder for local manufacturers, who now have to spend more on every imported item or material they need. If they are abletosurce from the US, they weren’t buying local because imported was cheaper, so either way, their production costs are going up,and this is going to passed straight on to the consumer. The advantage they may have had from tariffs on competitive products is undermined by tariffs on the raw materials.
Either way, things are going to cost more for Americans.
Then there is the time frame. It takes year to set up a manufacturing plant. It will take years for the vision to realise,and until then there is no economic upside for Americans.
They’ll feel the pinch by July. And if the tariffs are mostly maintained, expect a blue wave at the next midterms as those who voted for prosperity lose faith.
Nate and barry join Ark in their cult ritual of attacking Trump. It is how children handle their hatred.
There’s no use in trying to educate them. Their heads are closed to facts.
They don’t even understand the word “reciprocal”.
“Theres no use in trying to educate them. Their heads are closed to facts.”
Translation from Clintspeak to English:
‘Clint has no sound rebuttal’
Yup, just the usual mindless ad hom from Clint. Nothing substantive to say.
A useful idiot.
The things Nate and I are saying are not controversial. These things are obvious. Universal tariffs raise the cost of everything. That’s not doomsaying or leftist propaganda, it is simple arithmetic.
Trump knows it, which is why he is talking f about “short-term” pain. stephen knows it, which is why he is parroting this line.
It’s not controversial. Purchasing power for families in the US is going to take a significant hit as long as these tariffs run. US manufacturers will have to pay more for every item they import to make their product. These costs will get passed onto consumers, and these costs will reduce or even eliminate the purported advantage putting tariffs on foreign products gives local manufacturers. Also, local manufacturers will bump their prices up anyway, because tariffs will hike prices for imports, so local companies reporting to shareholders will jack their prices up because the market gives them the headroom to do it. That’s what capitalism is about – maximising profit. Companies don’t care about populist ideology.
There are dimmer dihards like Clint who won’t talk straight about these very straightforward impacts, but instead get snide when people bring them up.
If he uses those tariffs to pay down the debt that is a good thing. Have you ever been in deep debt? I haven’t but know people who have. In order to pay down their debt they have to live austerely for a few years until their debt is paid, and then insure they don’t repeat the same stupid mistakes.
Child Nate, “reality” is my “sound rebuttal”.
You and barry can’t stand reality. That’s why you constantly resort to insults and false accusations. Not one of you cult children would be able to pass a simple reality check. For example, what is the end result of reciprocal tariffs?
“Child Nate, reality is my sound rebuttal”
Translation from Clintspeak:
“I still have no substantive response”
As I stated, the kids can’t deal with the simple reality check.
They just keep proving me right.
Gee some day Clint may have a substantive response, but today is not the day, apparently.
“If he uses those tariffs to pay down the debt that is a good thing. Have you ever been in deep debt?”
You can think of no better way to reduce debt than tariffs? The money received won’t be significant compared to the debt, and it relies on two assumptions – foreign exporters will be happy to keep selling the same volume of goods to the US,and Americans will buy the same volume of goods – even though they are more expensive.
Trump’s rhetoric has many supporters believing it will be foreign countries that pay this money. He claimed in his first term, over and over, that China was paying the tariffs he imposed on that country.
There are many different options to reduce debt. Raising taxes is a very straightforward one, much simpler to implement, and much more predictable. This would provide a stable and adjustable method of raising money to pay down the debt. The taxes would need to be pretty steep, though.
Conservatives would hate that, so it’s politically challenging. So Trump is taking money off you in a different way that amounts to the same thing.
But it’s extraordinarily bad planning. Instead of going through congress and making these tariffs law (it couldn’t be done), this has been done by executive order under emergency powers. The tariffs can be immediately undone by the next president. Only a miniscule proportion of the debt could be paid off by then.
Trump’s major weakness is that he doesn’t go through congress. He doesn’t know how to build a coalition on issues. He dictates. So all his actions are EOs, and of those that have been challenged in the courts, most have been struck down or held off. His orders are unlawful.
Even if these tariffs were not patently harmful to the global and US economy, Trump doesn’t have the political nouse to get congress to make them law. Of course, his go-it-alone method is loved by his supporters. It makes him look like a swamp-drainer. But all he’s doing is making a new swamp – a smaller one with him the king of it, and fewer challengers to his rule.
Barry,
So you think raising taxes will help pay down the debt? You’re a good little leftist aren’t you? Make the rich pay their fair share I say!
Nothing wrong with that idea. But even just closing tax loopholes would generate significant revenue.
You think the poor should shoulder the burden of paying down the debt? You think CEOs only making $2 million a year instead of $4 million would hurt them more than the tariffs will affect middle and lower economic class Americans?
Interesting priorities.
Companies were doing fine with a 35% tax, recording higher profits in the years leading up to Trump’s handout. Reducing to 21% was a major loss to revenue.
The idea was to incentivise reshoring and build business, but mostly corporations bought stocks back, benefitting shareholders.
The recent tariffs, of course, are going to work well against corporations investing in new works and job creation.
Fortunately, Trump has been deporting low-pay labour. Now businesses in agriculture, construction, hospitality, and food-processing will have to pay more for labor.
What a boon all this is for job creation.
But maybe I haven’t thought it through. With the gutting of the bureaucracy, social security and health services are going to be tardy or even non-existent in some places. So desperate citizens might step up to take the place of undocumented workers, getting paid off the books with no health care, and of course paying no taxes.
Why import an economic underclass when you can grow one at home?
Clint says They dont even understand the word reciprocal.
Explain to me what is the “reciprocity” of this: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1i9MWHeoPw_nd4ffvwr5oPTFoQ3JC30v55iALMVM_WUU/edit#slide=id.p
Sig provides us with yet another example of cult tactics. He doesn’t understand the issue, so he searches the Internet for something he believes supports his cult. But, it only shows he doesn’t understand the issue!
In this case, he misses the point. The point is easy for responsible adults to understand. Trump wants all tariffs to be fair and equal, so other nations are not taking advantage of USA.
We can’t expect children to understand….
For those who think having the rich paying their fair share in individual income taxes will eliminate the deficit, think again. When Clinton balanced the budget the top 1% paid an effective tax rate of 28% Today they pay 25.5%. Total effective tax rate was 16.1% for all tax payers. Today its 15.3%. Increasing either rate would increase tax revenue by $70 billion for the 1%ers and $120 billion for all. The deficit is $2 trillion and growing by $200-300 billion annually.
In the 1950s, when the top marginal rate was 91%, the top1% paid 20% of individual income taxes. Today they pay 40%.
Increasing taxes are needed, but taxes cannot solve the deficit problem alone because the growth rate of spending swamps the increase in tax revenues. Growing the tax base beyond the last few years would also help enormously. The most important thing though is that both sides need to get real, ditch the talking points and be honest with the American people. We have a huge problem that is greater than the US faced after WWII, when the debt exploded.
“Trump wants all tariffs to be fair and equal, so other nations are not taking advantage of USA”
Only if you are gullible enough to believe everything the Dear Leader says!
The evidence says otherwise.
Apparently Clint is gullible enough.
“For those who think having the rich paying their fair share in individual income taxes will eliminate the deficit”
Does anyone think that? That’s one of the things that could be done, and it could be done in lieu of these draconian tariffs.
Barry,
You could take all the wealth from all the country’s billionaires, and it would only pay the federal budget through about June for one year. Then what?
Hahaha. By choosing the billionaire category you managed to overlook the millionaire category, which is probably around 90 – 100 trillion dollars. Combining billionaires and trillionaires would be a total of around $100 trillion, or enough to run the government for 10 years, if no one else paid taxes, and the government took no other revenue.
But this proposal is as silly as your retort.
The debt is the fault of successive US governments, and Trump will punish the people for it. And the less wealthy you are, the more you will be punished by Trump’s fiscal policies. The rich won’t feel a thing.
And that’s what MAGA voted for! Years of economic hardship while the elites keep sipping cocktails after golf.
The point is that Trump thinks that any country that sells more goods to America than it buys must be ripping us off.
Which fails to consider that countries like Vietnam have cheap labor that can produce Nike products that we want to buy, but whose consumers can’t afford to buy our cars etc.
And this was how his absurd formula for ‘reciprocal’ tariff was calculated.
Barry,
The poor don’t shoulder the burden of paying down the debt. They don’t pay anything on the debt. They don’t pay taxes. As a matter of fact they get refundable credits like the Child Tax Credit, the Additional Child Rax Credit and the Earned Income Credit. They also get Head of Household filing status and American Opportunity Tax Credit which is also refundable. They get money back on taxes they never paid.
Thunderstorms in Arkansas and Missouri, snowstorm in North Texas.
Tornadoes cause heavy damage and will move southeast for two days.
The satelites sensors have been quietly recalibrated to match modelz
waming predictions
simple as that
You reckon Roy Spencer is unaware of this, or has he joined the conspiracy?
How would I know, you have to ask him
You don’t think he would be the first to let us know about this?
Let me be plainer. This is BS.
For him admitting this dataset is a fake fraud would be a confession that he completely wasted his whole life career
Quite unlikely he would do that
to be plainer you don’t know squat how thigs work
Not at all. Your post indicates that this manipulation is recent. Roy Spencer’s career is not jeopardised by this. He’d be the first to point it out.
Tim reckons he’s not expert enough to know. Roy Spencer and John Christy had a hand in getting the sensors installed on the satellites. So no doubt you got your information from someone who is even more expert than these guys.
Who came forward with this BS update, Eben? Which expert was it?
I am going to make a wild guess that Dr. Spencer is a subject matter expert (SME) on satellite calibration standards and methods, and you know almost nothing. Just a guess.
Dachshund
” The satelites sensors have been quietly recalibrated to match modelz
waming predictions
simple as that ”
Why don’t you give barry a scientific proof of what you claim?
You behave here exactly like do the lunar spin deniers on this blog – or like Robertson claiming that no one gave ever a proof for the existence of the measles virus.
*
The most recent low anomaly wrt 1991-2020 just before the 1998 El Nino was
1997 4 -0.45
The succeeding peak anomaly was
1998 2 +1.15
Difference 1997-98: +1.60 increase in 10 months
*
The most recent low anomaly before the newest peak was
2023 1 -0.42
The succeeding peak anomaly was
2024 3 +1.24
Difference 2023-24: +1.66 increase in 14 months
Thus, the sudden increase in 1997-98 was even more pronounced than the sudden increase in 202324 (0.16 C/month compared to 0.12 C/month).
*
Were the ‘satelites sensors quietly recalibrated to match modelz
waming predictions’ in 1997-98 too?
Really?
Yes, the temperature in this data set rises in three distinct very defined steps, you know it happened, what you are missing is that nature does not do that
“nature does not do that”
Roy Spencer is not convinced.
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/11/the-magical-mystery-climate-index-luis-salas-nails-it/
It is the nature of time series of random (ish) data with an underlying trend will look like it has occasional ‘steps’, just because there will be occasional high anomalies and later on a low one.
None of the ‘steps’ in the UAH time series are remotely statistically significant, and they are bounded by el Ninos and la Ninas, which explain the so-called plateaus.
I think there’s way too much focus on the short term ‘noise’ of the graph in these comments. The real signal is rhe underlying, relentless warming long term. See the 10-year and 30-year moving averages over at https://datagraver.com/climate-data-set-uah/
That’s the real takeaway from the UAH data.
I am not sold on showing these results relative to the 30 year average. For one, the satellite record starts during peak anthropogenic SO2 emissions in the late 70s, and Pinatubo erupted in 1991. If you are going to use a 30 year comparison, how about updating each new month relative to the most recent 30 years? Let’s start looking at these trends relative to clean air policies and market forces that resulted in massive SO2 reductions.
I am not sold on showing these results relative to the 30 year average. For one, the satellite record starts during peak anthropogenic SO2 emissions in the late 70s, and Pinatubo erupted in 1991. If you are going to use a 30 year comparison, how about updating each new month relative to the most recent 30 years? Let’s start looking at these trends relative to clean air policies and market forces that resulted in massive SO2 reductions.
I would prefer absolute results. The 20th Century witnessed far too much SO2 flux, which these 30 year anomalies are unable to capture. Post WW2 SO2 flux is an ignored or patronized massive bias by the climate crowd. It didn’t “mask” CO2, it was the story. CO2 is negligible.
All the choice of a 30-year period does is change the vertical scale. The trend remains unchanged. If I changed to the most recent 30 years people would claim I’m obscuring the true size of recent anomalies… and in a way, that’s true anyway if compared to (for example) 1901-1930. -Roy
The S&P 500 lost $6.6 TRILLION on Thursday and Friday alone, the largest two-day wipeout of shareholder value on record. That’s your retirement, college saving, medical funds, investment capital.
Trump is currently on social media, between holes on the golf course apparently, literally begging the Fed to cut interest rates in a desperate bid to slow the damage.
We’re looking square at inflation, stalling growth, unemployment, a weakening dollar, and a recession is nearly inevitable at this point. Even Trump’s own TikTok deal stalled.
Are we great yet or what?
A reminder that most Americans (68.41%) did not vote for this:
Voted For Trump= 31.59%
Voted For Harris= 30.65%
Voted For Third Party= 2.66%
Did Not Vote= 35.10%
Wow looks like no disagreement with: https://www.drroyspencer.com/2025/04/uah-v6-1-global-temperature-update-for-march-2025-0-58-deg-c/#comment-1701804
SOLAR MINIMUM UPDATE
Wow, looks like no disagreement with:
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2025/04/uah-v6-1-global-temperature-update-for-march-2025-0-58-deg-c/#comment-1701850
Besides, cheers from Mobile, Alabama:
https://bsky.app/profile/dadman03.bsky.social/post/3lm3q22ulgc2n
I certainly can agree that Mark Cuban has a history of making such predictions and have no reason at all to not believe it.
It is true that slashing spending reduces economic activity and depending on how that affects the employment rate it could have a negative effect on Alabama’s economy.
I think though that there is a lot of truth to the maxim that it takes short term pain to achieve long term gain and that kind of boils down to fat vs sinew. . .or in the world of economics politics vs education with politics being the fat and education being the sinew.
I didn’t see any comment from Cuban on that issue. But what I have been hearing from the cabinet isn’t closing offices in small towns it was closing huge offices in Washington DC and increasing operations where people need it, like closing the Department of Education and giving what DC does to the states. then it is the state that must decide if they want to operate like Washington DC
or farm it out to the towns and cities.
Some states may prosper from that and others suffer but I didn’t see any evidence being presented as to why specific states would suffer.
Perhaps all Cuban is trying to do is get his political party thinking more about how to help the people who need the most help by something other than destructive practices like racism, DEI, identity politics, and victim ideology and start figuring out how to better help those in the red rural states which also explains what decided the last election.
after all going by population density as a proxy for rural/urban and looking at the top 25 vs bottom 25 states
Harris won 64% of the urban states and only 16% of the rural states. More focus by the democrats on the needs of the rural population would be a good thing.
Gill’s go-to guy in all things tariffs must be the same as TS:
https://crooksandliars.com/2025/04/legend-ron-vara
Obvious!
Willard thinks Trump gets his ideas like Willard gets his.
Interesting update! Always good to see the latest temperature data and read the comments. Makes you think about what’s coming next with the climate.
l also go to Ghiblifor some fun
l also go to momoaifor some fun
l also go to steamonlineifor some fun
Permabull Tom Lee apologizes and admits he was wrong.
Waiting for MAGA cultists here to explain to the rest of us why mass tariffs without any plan, infrastructure, subsidies or preparation to create the labor backed products we’re going to need to weather this tariffs storm is good.
Trump is doing the part you do last FIRST. That illusory plan he dreamed up has no legs to stand on because he’s actively hurting the means of starting a business in the first place.
The view from Australia.
The US had a $17 billion trade surplus with Australia in 2024.
The US has had a consistent trade surplus with Australia since at least 1985. It usually makes more than twice as much exporting to Australia than Australia makes exporting to the US every year.
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c6021.html
The Trump administration talks about “reciprocal” tariffs under the rubric of unfair trade deficits.
We’re scratching our heads about the 10% tariff placed on all Australian goods when the US makes more than double in exports to us than we do in exports to them.
The administration has complained about Australian restrictions on US beef. Here is the breakdown of facts. See if a Trump supporter can explain the validity of the US position.
Australia imposes a 0% tariff on US beef from cattle born and raised in the US. There is also no limit on how much can be imported. Our own beef market more than covers the entire population, so we don’t import much because we don’t need to. Still we import US beef.
The US likewise has a 0% tariff on imported Aussie beef. But there is an upper limit to the quote, at which point a 26% tariff kicks in.
So the tariff regime favours the US.
Australia has for decades had a high biosecurity regime. The local ecology is vulnerable to imported pests and plant species that kill off native biota. We also have strict policies on organic imports that could carry a risk of disease.
Australia bans beef that is processed in the US, but comes from cattle outside the US, owing to mad cow disease resurgence in the early 2000s. We initially banned all beef from the US, but relaxed the ban as we perceived restored safety in the US home-grown beef market. Beef is one of our primary exports, and we do not want any risk of MCD getting into Australia.
Australia supports US home-grown beef!
Even if we relaxed the ban on non-US beef exported from the US, this would not be any kind of windfall for the US. We just don’t have much need for foreign beef, though we import some.
Why, with a $17 billion dollar trade surplus, is the US punishing one of its best allies, with whom it has an advantageous trade relationship?
This looks to us like nothing more than a shakedown of a friend. There’s no justification for it.
There is no rhyme or reason. Trump 2.0 is the proverbial bull in a China shop, but he can’t escape the moral dictum “you break it, you own it.” By destroying the GOP and the economy at the same time he’s become the Second Coming of Herbert Hoover.
Ark, you found another link you can’t understand. That’s SOP for you cult kids.
Tom made a prediction that turned out wrong. Then, he admitted his mistake. That’s what responsible adults do. That’s how you learn.
And that’s why you cult kids can’t learn. You can’t face reality.
Hey Donald, if you want reciprocal tariffs, could you remove the 26% quota tariff on Aussie beef, please, as we have no tariffs or quota limits on US-grown beef?
Barry,
So, how can an Australian farmer raise a beef cattle, ship it to the US and sell it cheaper than an American farmer?
Or vice versa. So enforcing it makes no sense.
You can look this up, stephen. I did.
We have high quality grass-fed beef with low fat content, and depending on the cut, can be the same price as US beef or cheaper, even after shipping.
I think most Americans prefer high-fat beef for steaks, but lean beef is better for burgers, so Australian beef is bought and combined with US beef to produce mince/ground beef. There is also a market among health-conscience types for low-fat steaks, which we produce in abundance. Our standards are pretty strict, our produce is often labeled “organic” (yes, I know how daft that sounds – but it refers to the conditions for cattle and processing) by the local importers or retailers.
Economy of scale, and the advantageous exchange rate for the US make Australian beef viable. We are the third largest exporter in the world, and have geared our beef industry towards exports, trimming costs through efficiency and scale.
However, the US puts a cap on how much can be imported before a 26% tariff gets slapped on. We have no such limits for US-grown beef.
So, can we have reciprocal tariffs and lose the 26% after cap, please? Then the US and Australia would have an equal tariff regime, instead of it favouring the US.
And the US would still make twice as much as we do from our trade arrangements.
To be honest: Even though it’s a shame for all snow-loving holidaymakers (for example, more and more French ski resorts had to close years ago already), my wife and I are quite happy about the sharp decline in snow cover that we have been experiencing for decades in our local corner (northeast Germoney).
The last snowy winter deserving this name was here in… 2010!
*
I thought it’s time again to have a look at Rutger’s weekly snow cover data for the Northern Hemisphere.
The top 10 of the sorted weekly data looks nice:
1978 6 53.92 (Mkm^2)
2010 7 52.96
2008 4 52.41
1978 7 52.32
1979 2 51.85
1972 6 51.66
1985 2 51.57
2008 5 51.24
1972 5 51.17
2008 3 50.83
*
But… this can’t hide the reality shown below.
1. Yearly means of absolute data
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ABBiug5c5lQ-rgL7Ijd8KjiTcNfGx9rR/view
2. Anomaly-based data (wrt 1991-2020)
https://drive.google.com/file/d/14s2WJQ1bzMdsP-N_3u9o0c0guGdX3WIk/view
*
Global cooling? Really?
Hmmmh.
BREAKING NEWS
At this hour major US stock market futures are up. Most of the radical left-wing liberal media is predicting doom and gloom. These two are an exception:
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-advisers-say-more-than-50-countries-have-reached-out-for-tariff-talks-with-white-house
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/here-every-country-working-trade-deals-us
As they say in the news business, this is a “developing story”. Stay tuned. What will people say if negotiation was the correct strategy, and Trump actually got it right this time? Sadly, what about all of those panic sellers who sold low? Will they get back into the market? There is a lot of cash “on the sidelines”.
Fox News, famous radical left-wing liberal media outlet.
Huh? As of right now Dow Jones is still $6 trillion down on what it was at the beginning of April, and the S&E 500 is still at the bottom of its sharpest fall since the COVID pandemic.
Let’s hope the shakedown works better for these alleged 50 countries than it did for Ukraine.
That did not end well. Markets started way up and then went way down. This is the problem with someone who has tremendous power, thinks he knows everything, will not listen to people, and can never admit to being wrong. Fasten your sea belts, it is going to be a bumpy ride. This is why everyone, regardless of employments status should have cash reserves.
Nice to see some recognition of reality by Tim.
It’s like so many movies with an evil nut-job with power threatens humanity.
Without a James Bond, we only hope that Congress will get its sh*t together, in response to building public outrage, and take back its Constitutional powers to undo the damage.
barry…”The view from Australia”.
***
Barry, does Australia have the cojones to stand up to him? The UK has already folded, deserting Canada, and they have a Labour government which is allegedly Left Wing.
Sounds like the EU wants to negotiate, which is dumb. Why would anyone negotiate with a dishonest person who started a trade war under the guise of an emergency?
His tariffs are illegal because there is no emergency facing the US. It is the job of Congress to deal with tariffs. He needs to be impeached for disgracing the US Constitution. If he is not, then we will see what Republicans are all about.
US has the largest economy in the world and a lot of other kinds of clout, such as intelligence, military, and a bunch of other stuff That’s what makes them the superpower, and that’s what gives them enormous leverage. And that’s another reason why this is a shakedown. Dunno how we “stand up” to that, but that is definitely what the guy who was our Prime Minister during Trump’s first term recommends. Our current stance is not to retaliate, to spare local producers and companies and avoid escalating the trade war.
We will have to seriously contemplate doing more trade with China and less with the US. Trump’s tariffs are good for China’s trade partnerships with other countries. I wish we didn’t do this, but I can understand it.
If the rest of the world looks elsewhere, this could be another economic blow to the US. And maybe that’s what they need to feel as a result of spitting on allies.
Spitting on allies? You are such a goober. The only reason Australia exists right now is because of us. We have let our “allies” spit on us for decades. No more. America First.
Gordo,
His tariffs are illegal? Are your tariffs illegal?
Gordo,
His tariffs are illegal? Are your tariffs illegal?
Who got the power of the purse, Troglodyte?
stephen,
What has Australia done to earn universal tariffs? We’ve been one of the US’s staunchest allies since WWII. We share intelligence, we train together, we have fought alongside the US in nearly every major conflict since and including WWII, including, Vietnam, Korea, Iraq, Afghanistan and against ISIS in various places.
The US makes twice as much from us as we do from you in our trade arrangement. Last year the US trade surplus with Australia was $17 billion.
Please explain to me why Australia deserves a universal 10% tariff on all our imports to the US.
I’m not particularly for having tariffs on Australia. However, the Australian government hasn’t been too kind to Trump the last few years. Also, why is Australian customs so nasty and impolite to Americans when they visit? And, why was Australian government so draconian during COVID? I think a lot of Americans wonder about Australia’s strong leftist bent now. And, I think Trump believes Australia might be used as a way around the tariffs by some countries with Australians happily obliging.
Stephen thinks if Trump is tariffing Australia for vague things other than trade, then that’s AOK with him.
Because his Dear Leader is infallible.
What, stephen? Because America doesn’t like the way we do things domestically??
This is nothing to do with “reciprocal” tariffs. If it did, we’d be getting credit from the US, perhaps by the US lifting its quota on Australian beef.
But really stephen, I’m just pointing out that there isn’t any legitimacy to the tariff regime on Australia. It’s pure bastardry – spitting in the eye of an ally for no good cause.
Gordon Robertson
Finally a post you make I agree with. I think stephen p anderson is deep in his artificial reality based mostly on false information. He reminds me of how some Muslims become radicalized and will believe anything from lying sources. No amonut of logic or reason can alter the mind of a fanatic.
False information? Australia was one of the worst to its citizens during COVID. They used fear-mongering to slap draconian restrictions on their citizens. If you didn’t agree they’d send you to jail in the name of “safety and security.” Isn’t that the message from the left? It is for your own good. What has happened to Australia? It is only slightly less left than China. I always thought Australia had more of an independent libertarian bent than most UK colonies. Nope. Tyrannical.
C’mon Stephen, dont be absurd. Their Covid policies are irrelevant to trade policy.
Since when do we feel the need to micromanage other countries health policies.
We have enough trouble managing our own!
What on Earth has any of that to do with tariffs?
bill hunter…”…it is clear that we recently had an astronomical event that resulted in about 5 extra days close to the sun vs further way from the sun over how much we had in 1980 as verified by the US Naval Observatory”.
***
That’s interesting because the entire orbital plane rotates slowly as well. Milankovich cycles suggest this rotation and changes in axial tilt affect climates in the long term.
Also, the Earth is closest to the Sun in January when the Southern Hemisphere receives most sunlight. It farthest from the Sun in July, when the Northern Hemisphere receives most of the sunlight. Since the Southern Hemisphere is mostly ocean, the heat in January gets redistributed.
That complexity and variability exceeds anything plugged into climate models.
The Little Ice Age suggests shorter terms climate change can occur naturally and the warming we experience today is mainly from a rewarming from the LIA.
Stumbled upon this comment section while looking for some climate data. Apologies to the rest of the world for the absolute idiocy coming out of the White House and the Trump cult in this forum. At some point in my life I would’ve staunchly defended against the American stereotype painting us all as a bunch of ignorant buffoons, but that ship sailed 5 years ago when we allowed a manipulative criminal, who nearly overthrew the govt. back into the public sphere We’re dealing with some truly wretched disinformation campaigns, constitutional crises, and sheer ineptitude over here.
I was out riding my horse and shooting my guns all morning so maybe I missed it, but how’s the big Wall Street Stock Market rally going? Has Trump been vindicated yet?
Hello?
Sell Everything ! ! !
Don’t worry though, those tacky golden Trump Sneakers you invested in are holding their value like a Cybertruck in a car wash.
Trump is taking a huge victory lap and the radical left-wing liberal media is in a tailspin. Are there any other questions?
‘Victory lap’?
Which news channel suggested that?
90 days? Now businesses have to put off hiring or expansion decisions for another 90 days.
I hope the TDS patients sold everything in the short lived low dip
Victory lap??
He has backed down after throwing the markets into turmoil, and they’ve bounced back as a result of the backdown.
So we’ll see how things go in another 90 days.
This is feckless economic management. No surprise, though. They don’t know what they’re doing, and Trump enjoys causing chaos. What a narcissist he is.
“Yeah, Trump was, like, I just saved the economy from me. Youre welcome'”
Jimmy Fallon pegged it.
I predict temperatures continue to rise.
https://www.science.org/content/article/aviation-s-dirty-secret-airplane-contrails-are-surprisingly-potent-cause-global-warming
Good one Darwin! It’s a little late for April 1, but your find fits in well with Dr. Spencer]’s funny post about chemtrails, just before the First.
A perfect quote from the article: “These high-flying clouds are too thin to reflect much sunlight, but ice crystals inside them can trap heat.”
I can guarantee not one of the cult kids can identify the error in that quote.
The fun never ends,,,,
Weird that Clint had been touting the warming effects of high flying water for the last couple of years, but now thinks it’s a joke!
Child Nate does not understand the difference between water vapor and ice crystals.
darwin…only a raving ijit could make a connection between the tiny amount of gas produced by aircraft and global warming/climate change. The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is mammoth compared to any CO2 in chemtrails and CO2 is such a trace gas it could not supply more heat in the atmosphere than its mass percent of 0.06%.
We need to get it that we humans produce only 4% of all CO2 in the atmosphere. Before we started producing atmospheric CO2 in large amounts, natural sources produced at least 0.03%, and at that time we produced a tiny fraction of that amount. Today, we produce more, but the total amount of CO2 has increased to only 0.04%.
The study quoted in the article is fraudulent and done on an unvalidated model. Clearly, the model was programmed by alarmist fraudsters.
Yes its the ellipticity of the orbit that causes earth to receive a good deal more sunlight in austral summer (our winter), at perihelion. but most of that sunlight goes into the ocean due to the southern oceans being far larger than the northern oceans.
The absolute barstadry of Trump’s tariffs are glaringly obvious in Lesotho.
The country has received a 50% tariff hike.
It has basically one major export to the US. Diamonds.
The average citizen earns 5$ a day,which will get you fed,maybe, but won’t get you enough for a very long time to buy, say, a laptop. In fact, very few people in Lesotho can afford US goods.
The population of Lesotho is 2.3 million, compared to the US’ 330 million.
Lesotho is being outrageously punished simply for being a very poor country with a small population.
That’s how the ridiculous formula works, based solely on the trade deficit. Not on tariffs at all. And certainly not with any notion of reciprocity.
Many countries could completely remove all tariffs and still the US would have a trade deficit, simply because the citizens of a country can’t match US citizens purchase power, either individually or as a population.
The rhetoric from the richest country in the world is BS to lull supporters into thinking all these countries deserve a spanking.
The US is not only the richest country in the world, but its economic development over the long term surpasses most other developed nations. It is the less developed nations that have grown faster in that timeframe.
These tariffs are patently unfair. The US has a case for various specific tariffs and other practises, but this blanket tariff and ludicrous ‘formula’ is just an international shakedown. Pure extortion and thuggery.
The treatment of Lesotho is barbaric. To kick an impoverished country in the teeth simply because they can’t afford to match US purchase power. It’s disgusting.
Yep, just bullying of a little guy for no good reason. It is not as if these small poor countries can suddenly become wealthy consumers of our expensive goods.
If you want to know if Trump’s efforts are working, the best indicator is the ongoing rage of the Left. The more fits the children throw, the more Teslas they ruin, the more protests they have, the more nonsense comments they make, the more Trump is winning.
The whole concept of TDS will shrivel up when his policies start to affect his supporters.
Clint, you can’t defend this. That’s why you attack. There is no economic justice here. There is no moral rationale. There is only ruthless self interest.
stephen understand this on some level, because that is the basis of his attempts at justifying this universal economic assault on every country on the panet.
But you understand nothing, hence your utterly vacuous remarks. You are like the elites living on purely inherited wealth, who, stuffed with complacency don’t bother to understand the events surrounding them.
You’re wrong again, barry. If you consider my bringing reality is an attack, that’s your problem not mine.
You don’t understand the issues. You have your beliefs, and you attack those that prove you wrong. Finding links to support false beliefs is easy. The Internet has plenty of false information. And clogging the blog with endless rambling just indicates you have NOTHING.
You can’t get much right, so you resort to insults and false accusations. You quickly call people “lying dog”. You can’t accept reality.
Burned any Teslas today?
barry
At least Clint R has exposed his mentality! He supports Trump because Trump annoys people. The more Trump annoys the better. Clint R is of that cloth. He has no science background and does not want to engage in rational discussion. He likes to annoy people. He gets pleasure from this. No intelligent or scientific convesation is possible with this poster. His only reason for posting is to try and annoy and upset other posters. It would be a darl place to want to be but that is the place Clint R sits in.
Once again Norman offers only insults and false accusations.
Like his cult, that’s all he’s got.
Seems accurate, Norman
You forget that Trump only annoys annoying people giving them back what they bring.
Megyn Kelly as you may recall called out Trump during the 2016 debates for some specific insults to ”women” and Trump brought the house down when he said ”only Rosie O’Donnell.
He is a lot like Kelly Reilly’s character in Yellowstone. Extremely confident and gives back exactly what he receives.
As the saying goes. . .it takes two to tango! The whole reason shaky kneed alarmist post in this forum is they are here to annoy.and as expected receive their own dose of being annoyed that obviously they are addicted to.
There is so much misinformation from barry. If the people cannot afford US goods, then removing the tariffs their government collects will help the people to afford things they want. It took about 2 minutes to find this:
https://apnews.com/article/lesotho-us-trump-tariffs-b337efa47290e889aa076cc9ede7bc9d
Textile manufacturing is one of Lesothos key industries, exporting some 75% of its output to the United States.
According to Trump, Lesotho charges a 99% tariff on U.S. goods, but the government said it doesnt know how the U.S. administration calculated that figure. Government officials did not say Thursday what Lesothos tariffs on U.S. goods are.
Tim S
Did you read the article you posted? No one knows how Trump came up with th 99% tariff on US goods. I could not find a source of any actual tariffs they impose on US goods.
Even if Lesotho removed all tariffs, there is no way possible, with a population of 2.3 million with an average wage of $5 a day, it could come close to matching what the US spends purchasing from Lesotho.
The tariff formula is a joke, because it is not based on tariffs at all, just on the trade deficit. Poor countries without a massive population have no hope of making up the balance. It’s grossly unfair.
And as has been pointed out, the tariffs even apply to countries with which the US has a long term trade surplus.
None of it makes sense, except if you perceive the administration as greedy idiots who are happy to extort for gain, crying poor me as a pretext.
Why do I have to explain everything to some of you. Here you go Norman, this is the one-minute search you could not accomplish:
https://www.rsl.org.ls/index.php/tariff-home
If you need help browsing their official web site, I can help with that also.
Tim S
I looked at your link and was browsing through some of their tariffs. I cannot see where the 99% comes from. Lots of things are Free. I saw some 20% and 40% on some items. Did not see any excess tariffs. Since the list is very extensive on items I would like to understand why you think this 99% is a valid number. Since you seem to support it as real the burden of proof is on you.
I looked up the textiles. Lots of Free items, saw mostly 15 or 20% on some items. Did not see anything close to 99%.
Since you are the expert at web searching maybe link to where you show 99% as a realistic number. I am thinking you only linked the web page but did zero research. I think if you make claims you should do some research.
Don’t bother looking at the tariffs to work out the 99%. It comes from an unrelated metric – the trade deficit.
Here’s how it goes.
“Tariff” = exports to country X minus imports to US from country X, divided by exports to country X
So for Lesotho that’s:
($236M – $7M)/$235M = 0.9703
= 97%
Dunno what figures the US gov used – I got those from an article – but that’s their formula.
There are no tariff values in this formula, just total exports and imports with a given country.
The US divides by 2 to arrive at a ‘reciprocal tariff.”
Which is pure BS.
If “reciprocal tariffs” were a real thing, the US would be dropping their own tariffs to all countries with which they have a trade surplus.
It’s a shakedown. Please call it what it is, and stop pretending there is any reciprocity WRT tariffs.
Some people here weirdly still believe the things that Trump says…
Hey Barry,
Does Australia produce anything besides beef and minerals?
Yes.
Why?
From Liberation Day to Pause Everything bar China Day (one week!), Trump believes that starting a global trade war and going golfing for four days paid off handsomely for the country.
Do we now have zero trade deficit? Have all the factories moved back to America and we’re making everything from Fords to Toaster Ovens from resources we mined right here in America with genuine American born American labor? Are unemployment and inflation zero? Are gas and groceries dirt cheap?
Or is he just going to crash the world economy every three months, and then pretend to save it, over and over, for the next four years?
Although, the tariffs still in place will cause severe damage:
1/ 125% on Chinese imports.
2/ 25% on steel, aluminum, autos, and non-USMCA goods from Can/Mex.
3/ 10% on nearly all other imports.
4/ 25% on all goods from countries that buy Venezuelan oil, which has been signed but has no set start date and could take effect at any time.
And Tariffs coming:
1/ On copper, lumber, semiconductor & pharma imports.
2/ And maybe on other countries, depending how the next 90 days go.
Trump Caved, simple as that. Countries were selling US Bonds last night.
https://www.mediaite.com/news/foxs-gasparino-argues-trump-didnt-outsmart-the-world-and-tariff-drop-was-forced-by-bond-selloff-those-markets-were-imploding-last-night/
Anyone who buys this was part of the master plan or ‘flexibility’ is sorely deluded. The administration has sent mixed messages – it’s to reshore manufacturing – it’s to renegotiate trade arrangements – it’s to pay down debt… These things are mutually exclusive.
They don’t know what they are doing and are now putting out fires.
That’s what this is.
We’ll see if they wise up in 90 days. My prediction is they will have a completely new ‘plan’ then, not the same insanity they just abandoned.
So Trump needs to listen to a leftist like you? Planners plan.
You were unhappy Trump imposed a tariff. Now you’re unhappy Trump lifted the tariff. Planners plan.
Nate, Barry, Norman and Ark. The four Muskaplanners. Planners plan.
“Now you’re unhappy Trump lifted the tariff.”
No, I’m happy he lifted the ill-named “reciprocal tariffs,” which were just extortion.
Still not happy with the universal 10% tariff, when the US already makes twice what we do in our trade arrangements. It’s still extortion.
I would welcome negotiation. But Trump isn’t negotiating. He just bragged about nations calling him up to kiss his ass and plead for a better deal. Like we’re hostages.
And you like this. Like the kids who hang off a bully in the playground.
“Planners plan.”
Boy are you deluded. Trump is chaos. There’s no plan. Whenever he upends expectations hs supporters come up with brand new, usually contradictory rationales.
Still reckon the tariffs are to pay down the debt? Because Trump just pulled back from that simple objective.
stephen p Anderson.
Does the 10 percent rate still apply to the penguins of the Heard and McDonald islands?
https://youtu.be/tBYwXpmxDvY
Ark tries again, and barry jumps in to support the nonsense. The next tag-team m’ght be gordon and Norman. Then comes Bindi and Nate. It doesn’t matter which team, they’re basically all the same — beliefs over reality.
None of them understands the issues. None of them can learn. They can’t even answer simple questions like:
1. Can CO2’s 15μ photons raise Earth’s average surface temperature?
2. Does the ball-on-a-string have axial rotation?
3. What is the end result of “reciprocal tariffs”?
They can’t correctly answer the questions because they can’t face reality. They just make up crap to fit their false beliefs. They won’t admit they have a Leftist agenda that involves perverting reality.
Clint,
lay out the tariff formula that the Trump administration was about to apply (90 days abeyance), and explain how it works, and how it reciprocates real tariffs in the countries the formula is applied to.
I did that just upthread.
I think you’re full of it. You have no idea how the tariff formula works, much less how it produces tariffs that reciprocate the tariffs placed on US goods in each country.
And it’s obvious you know nothing about it, because you never address it. You just make noises about leftists, as if that constitutes a cogent argument, while pretending you know better.
Your mendaciousness is as transparent as it is pathetic.
I noticed you avoided dealing with the simple questions, barry. You can’t face reality. I don’t waste time with children that call me a “lying dog”, only because they hate reality.
The answers are:
Yes
Yes
Recession or even a Depression
“I noticed you avoided dealing with…”
I notice you are unable to describe how the tariffs are reciprocal and thus have changed the subject.
No one is fooled by your posturing, Clint. You’re an empty vessel.
bob gets it 100% wrong, and barry avoids the questions.
What a team!
Clint,
Question 1: I don’t know. Until someone can tell me and show me their evidence for what the Earth’s emissivity is then no. Also, does CO2 abs.orb 33 percent of the Earth’s IR like IPCC claims? Not according to the Planck function. It would be closer to about 12 percent. So, there are a lot of holes in GHE theory but Nate already knows that. He points them out all the time.
Stephen, the correct answer is “NO”. CO2’s 15μ photons can not raise Earth’s average surface temperature.
Temperature is based on the kinetic energy of molecules. In order to raise temperature with photons, the absorbed photons must raise the average kinetic energy of the surface. 15μ photons have lower frequency than the average of a 288K surface. So, even if absorbed, they would not raise the average kinetic energy.
And in nature, unlike with a laser, photons do not simply add. That’s why you can’t boil water with the photons from ice, no matter how much ice you have.
The belief that 15μ photons can raise Earth’s temperature is one of the many flaws in the CO2 nonsense. But the Left does not accept reality.
“In order to raise temperature with photons, the absorbed photons must raise the average kinetic energy of the surface. 15μ photons have lower frequency than the average of a 288K surface. So, even if absorbed, they would not raise the average kinetic energy”
Microwave oven photons have much much lower frequency (energy) than the molecules of room temperature water. So even if abs.orbed by water, they would not raise the average kinetic energy of water, according to Clint-physics!
Cuz Clint-physics is just plain stoopid.
Here comes the 10 times debunked Microwave oven argument
The food does not absorg photons
Once a high-frequency electrical field is applied to these water molecules, they rotate and vibrate in response to the reversal of the electrical field and generate heat by friction with each other.
Uh…that is a classical description of it, but ultimately abs.orption is a quantum process–involving photons.
And now quantobabble to top it off
No fizzix for you
So sez our local Fizzux authority, Eben.
Barry
You have some good thoughtful posts but Clint R will never answer your request. He is not here to debate or enlighten. He is only here to annoy other posters. Stephen p anderson is different. He is a fanatic programmed by right-wing media liars who feed him garbage and he thinks it is healty food. I think he comes here just to attack what he believes are left-wing loons. He is so far gone in his fanatic beliefs you can’t have a rational adult conversation with him either. I am hopin Tim S is the thoughtful one of thr Trump supporters. Clint R might not even like Trump but he loves to annoy so it really does not matter to him.
Norman, the reason you always attack me is because I bring reality to you, and you can’t stand reality.
Clint R
Reality I can stand just fine. Your lack of thoughtful intelligent thought and desire to annoy posters are my issue with you.
That’s completely WRONG, Norman. You can’t stand reality when it conflicts with your cult beliefs. That’s why you have to hurl insults and false accusations at those that bring reality to you.
Clint R
Nope you are wrong, as you are with most things you post.
Norman, you’re just grasping at straws. You need a reality check:
Is the ball-on-a-string rotating about its COM axis?
Clint R
I have spent enough time discussing this with you. The Moon is tidal locked and rrotates once on its axis as do other moon’s in the solar system. I have linked you to numerous sites which explain how tidal locking works and why tidal locking occurs. Currenly the Earth’s rotation is slowing down because of tidal forces. Intelligent scientists understand this. You can peddle your dumb ideas on a blog but it won’t change reality. I think you need a reality check to figure out why you are so ignorant.
I never mentioned Moon, Norman. The question was about a ball-on-a-string.
You can’t face reality. You evade the question as you hurl insults and false accusations.
Thanks for proving me right, again.
Clint R
You have denied tidal torque. Here are the equations that explain it in quite detail. I am sure you are not intelligent enough to understand any of it. The Moon rotates one rotation per orbit.
https://farside.ph.utexas.edu/teaching/celestial/Celestial/node54.html
If you had a bit of intelligence maybe you could look at the link, read through it and try to understand this article.
Norman, the question was about a ball-on-a-string, not Moon.
Your childish distractions and links to things you can’t understand don’t help you.
You can’t face reality.
Clint R
So basically you are saying you want to stay ignorant? I thought so, it is much easier to not learn, learning takes some type of effort. I knew you would not understand the link at all since you have no science background. Though other posters can’t say I have not tried to inform you.
I have already told you that the ball on a string is just a rotation around a central point. You cannot understand this. Reality is not your strong point nor is science. Other than annoying fellow posters you never contribute any value. I guess if you think calling posters cult members and children numerous times is valuable than you are one sad sack of a human. I have not seen any useful science points from you. Nate and barry both link to articles to support their points. It shows they both have some type of research background. You have none.
Norman, the simple question was Is the ball-on-a-string rotating about its COM axis?
You can’t answer it because you can’t face reality.
Keep proving me right.
I can take it.
Like most partisans, your biggest mistake and misunderstanding is the need to label and stereotype everyone into one camp or the other. If you got out more, and talked to people, you would find that most people are not highly partisan and they have many different views on a variety of subjects. Mostly, being partisan involves narrow mindedness. It is a big world out there with lots of “diversity”.
Like the Democrats and independents who voted for and elected Trump in the tight so-called swing states, I view Trump as the lesser of two evils. Being preferred over Kamala Harris, who is entirely incompetent is not a huge accomplishment.
After the latest Trump driven world wide chaos, and likely damage to the economy, its hard to understand how any administration could be more incompetent then our current one.
We have heard lots of cries that we are buried in Debt to justify the chainsaw cuts of DOGE, but then we get the Trump Congress passing a budget that would ADD $6T more to the Debt over 10 y beyond what we are currently adding.
“The new Congressional Budget Office analysis predicts that the GOP tax plans would increase the federal deficit by $6 trillion over a decade.”
How much is our federal budget going to increase over the next decade as it now stands?
You tell me.
The point is if we are drowning in Debt, why are they cutting taxes?
In fact several R congressmen were planning to vote against the budget because its of its Debt increase, but Trump put the squeeze on them.
Obviously he is more concerned about his billionaire buddies taxes than the fact that we are drowning in Debt!
This will be taught in history classes. Future students will laugh at this administration…
Yesterday Trump signed an Executive Order titled MAINTAINING ACCEPTABLE WATER PRESSURE IN SHOWERHEADS.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/maintaining-acceptable-water-pressure-in-showerheads/
Just as the Founding Fathers intended: https://youtu.be/fXfv3JbTAOA
Good, those idiotic regulations need to be rescinded.
Permabull Tom Lee saysFund managers quietly fear Trump doesn’t have a tariff plan and that he ‘might be insane.’
https://newrepublic.com/post/193805/donald-trump-investors-freak-out-economic-policies
Trump: “I have authorized a 90 day PAUSE, and a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period, of 10%, also effective immediately”
The word “reciprocal” is once again revealed to be meaningless in Don’s mouth.
Yes, Trump is lying about his tariffs being reciprocal or worse yet, he doesn’t know how tariffs work.
I am quietly fearful that fund managers might be insane.
Hey, if leftism is so great why is Alberta trying to secede from Canada?
Why is Canada (all of it) opposing the USA?
That is not the facts. You should not get your news from CBC.
Your alternative news source would be what?
All of Canada? No. I sat beside a guy from Alberta at the last NRA convention. We talked about Canadian politics for three hours while we waited to hear Trump. All of Canada doesn’t oppose Trump or the US. He said he wished Trump could be Canada’s President. He said the Quebec faction was running Canada unfortunately like the NY, Ill, Ca faction often runs the US. I believe now it is more about successfully cheating with those factions. Leftists will lie, cheat and steal to win. Conservatives won’t. So, I don’t believe most of Canada is against Trump.
The last NRA convention was in May 2024. Trump didn’t have the “Annex Canada” brain fart ’till December 2024. Things have changed!
SOLAR MINIMUM UPDATE
The Legislature eliminated parole for nearly everyone imprisoned for crimes committed after Aug. 1, making Louisiana the 17th state in a half-century to abolish parole altogether and the first in 24 years to do so. For the vast majority of prisoners who were already behind bars, like Alexander, another law put an algorithm in charge of determining whether they have a shot at early release; only prisoners rated low risk qualify for parole.
That decision makes Louisiana the only state to use risk scores to automatically rule out large portions of a prison population from being considered for parole, according to seven national criminal justice experts.
https://www.propublica.org/article/tiger-algorithm-louisiana-parole-calvin-alexander
Progress!
So the left lies. It continually lies. Didn’t the left say the border laws are broken and we need new laws to close the border? That was an absolute lie. As soon as Trump is elected the border is closed. We just needed a chief law enforcement officer who would enforce our laws. Biden said we needed a comprehensive immigration law. Leftist propaganda and lies. My point is the leftist lies about anything Trump does is just that, lies.
I think the Trump tariff plan should be simple. We match the tariff on other countries’ tariffs on us.
Tariffs are a fiction, paid for by USA citizens.
“I think the Trump tariff plan should be simple. We match the tariff on other countries tariffs on us.”
Sounds reasonable. But the Trump admin is not doing any thing like that. Not at any time.
Hey President Trump, would you please lower the tariff on Australia? Barry’s coochie hurts.
You understand my point right? I’m asking the US to apply the standard they established on the new tariffs. Reciprocal tariffs means that the US should remove tariffs on australian imports to reduce our trade deficit with the US. This is based purely on US methodology.
Or are you so stupid you haven’t understood that this is the point, and nothing to do with whining? I’m calling out US hypocrisy.
Stephen, does America need allies in the world?
For example, after 911, we did. And on many other occasions.
A lot of the people of the UK, Australia, Canada, etc. are our friends and allies. However, I would not say the governments and who the people elect are. Many in Canada are not our allies. Many in Australia are not our allies, or the UK. They don’t understand, our Constitution or respect it.
I can get straight answers from allies. But here if I ask pointy questions people slide right past them.
C’mon stephen. I’ve applied the Trump tariff formula and worked out that for Australia there should be a 26% tariff on US goods to amend our significant trade deficit with the US. The formula is based on deficit.
Neither you nor Clint willeven refer to the formula, let alone answer a question about it.
So do you, like me, think the formula is daft? Or do you think it is solid?
If solid, do you agree the US should lower tariffs to Australian goods per their own formula?
Why are you refusing to talk about the Trump administration’s tariff formula?
stephen….would be nice if you could receive this objectively rather than an attack on you, your country, and your views. I still have positive feelings about folk south of our border and regard many as allies. Folk from Washington State have reached out to us in support and I really appreciate that.
I agree and disagree with your comments. I have found in my life that no such as a true left winger or right winger exists. Most people I have meet may lean more left or right but they tend to have both right and left in them.
In other words, I have met right wingers who were compassionate people, a trait normally associated with the Left. Leftists tend to be humanitarians and are more interested in human values than profits or wealth. However, there are right wingers who have humanitarian ideals.
I regard Trump as a sociopath. He lacks any semblance of conscience, compassion, empathy or humanitarianism. If anyone contradicts him, even nicely, he turns on them with wrath and vengeance.
Trump is no good for the US as a whole. he will destroy any values you Yanks regard as sacred. Right Wingers like Cruz of Texas have clued into Trump, he claimed the midterms will be a bloodbath against Republicans unless Trump’s policies are opposed. He is also concerned with the effect Trump’s policies will have on Texans. There are other Republicans lending to his concern and the Republicans have only a few seats in Congress to win votes.
The question is this: how dearly do Yanks value their Constitution and the judiciary who evaluates and defends it? How dearly does the US value democracy FOR ALL.
Trump is not matching tariffs with Canada, we already had an agreement on tariffs going back to 2018. If he thought we were fleecing the US, why did he sign that agreement? He has picked on Canada because in his dementia he thinks we secretly want to join the US. He fails to grasp that Canadians enjoy their lives as Canadians and have no interest in the values you guys in the US hold dear.
Trump is scoffing at your own Constitution. He is insulting the judiciary who disagree with him and the tariffs he has imposed are illegal according to you Constitution. He has used emergency measures illegally to impose those tariffs as if he is a king. For that alone, he should be impeached.
Do the Republicans have the cojones to do that?
Poor gordon suffers from both Canadian mad-cow disease and TDS.
We can’t expect him to make any sense….
ClintR has never made sense,
.
The signal to noise ratio in his posts is approaching 0.
Gordo,
Give me a specific on how Trump is scoffing at the Constitution.
He’s taking biomedical research funding granted by Congress and signed into Law, away from Ivy League universities for having the temerity to want to exercise their First Amendment rights.
He is unilaterally dismantling programs like USAID and others, that were created by Congress and signed into Law.
Etc. Etc.
Not unconstitutional, Nate. You might try pointing out where in the Constitution that is unconstitutional.
Oh and he fired 17 IG s without giving rthe notice or rationale to Congress, as required by Law.
And these are people who work for us to find Government abuses, fraud and waste.
Congress passes the laws and provides the $.
I think you already know about the First Amendment.
1. Deporting people without due process.
5th Amendment: “No person shall… be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law”
SCOTUS has many times affirmed this applies to all people within the US, not just citizens.
2. Executive order to deprive birthright citizenship
Amendment 14:
“All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.”
3. Trump administration banned journalists from the Whitehouse, including the Associated Press (for failing to call the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America).
Contravenes 1st Amendment rights to free speech. Abridgement of free speech is activated under that law only when the government abridges. So Trump administration is guilty of it.
4. Also 1st Amendment – Trump administration is detaining and possibly deporting university students for supporting causes they don’t agree with – like supporting the political wing of Hamas, or calling the Israel attacks on Gaza genocide.
5. In revoking security clearances of legal firms who once employed attorneys who worked on cases against Trump, and denying them access to government buildings, Trump contravenes several parts of the constitution to do with freedom of speech, right to seek redress with government, access to due process.
6. The Trump administration has dismantled oversight of the executive and of federal agencies through congressional committees, thereby eroding the fundamental charge of balance of powers and checks and balances.
Every move they have made has been to remove obstacles to the executive doing as it wishes without interference from the other two co-equal branches of government.
I can go on if you wish. But surely just one of these is enough.
Oh and let’s not forget that he has given the powers of a Principal Officer to Elon Musk without Senate Approval.
Barry,
He can deport under the Aliens and Enemies Act. That is what he is doing. The press can have their free speech, but he doesn’t have to let them into the White House. University Students are here as our guests. They can free speech all they want. But they have no right to a visa. Let them free speech in their own countries. Oh wait, they can’t. Their countries will lock them up. Oh, by the way, judge agreed to the deportation of Khalil.
Also, the Commander in Chief has complete control over security clearances. No one has a right to a clearance. Also, naturalized citizens can lose their citizenship. It is not permanent. A natural citizen can too if they renounce their citizenship. It isn’t Executive Oversight. It is Congressional oversight. But, it works both ways. The Executive has some discretion over executing the laws especially with regard to our borders and who we let in.
stephen,
You are not arguing under the constitution,you are arguing under statutes. So, yes,these actions contravene the constitution.
Also, the statutes have be4en misapplied. Alien Enemies Act does not apply – and certainly not just because the executive claims it does – the constitution does not support executive fiat over what is and isn’t legal.
AEA only applies when the US is at war, or when it is in imminent danger of being invaded by a foreign government or country. The only 3 times this has been previously invoked is when congress has already formally declared war.
You fundamentally do not understand the constitution. It applies to all people within America’s borders, not just citizens. SCOTUS has ruled many times on this.
“Oh, by the way, judge agreed to the deportation of Khalil.”
That is not remotely true. The judge in 2011 agreed that there was some basis to the claim of gang membership, but ruled against deportation,specifically to el Salvador, because of the danger he faced if he went there – it was as credible that he was in danger from the very same gangs.
You are getting your info from partisan sources again.
Furthermore, SCOTUS rules that the gov must get the guy back to the US, and that any future people at threat of deportation need to be given notice by the government so they have a chance to defend themselves in court.
SCOTUS just ruled in favour of due process, per the constitution, for people in the US allegedly unlawfully.
So we’ll see if the Trump administration obeys the constitution from now on.
Just going to use the US tariff calculator to restore the balance with Australia.
It’s simple – trade deficit divided by imports, then divide by 2.
Australia’s trade deficit with the US is $17.9 billion (2024)
US imports to Australia were $34.6 billion
That gives us 17.9/34.6 = 0.517
divided by 2 = 0.258
Under the US formula we need to slap 26% tariffs on the US to have a reciprocal trade arrangement.
If these figures were reversed, that’s the tariff the US would have slapped on Australia.
stephen, Clint… Tim? Do you think the tariff formula is valid?
barry, you don’t understand any of this. You probably never heard the word “tariff” before Trump mentioned it. You don’t understand what Trump is doing, and you can’t learn. That’s why you can’t answer the simple question: “What is the end result of reciprocal tariffs?”
But keep on with your childish comments. We’re enjoying your TDS.
FWIW, Trump’s formula does not calculate reciprocal tariffs because the trade deficit with a given country is not determined by tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers alone. But that’s not all that’s wrong with this formula.
It also includes a technical error that quadruples the assumed tariff placed on the U.S. by another country. Correcting the error would reduce the tariff in your Australia example to 12.9% from 51.7%.
For details see this article cited by the White House: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aeri.20190536
Sorry, Clint? Do you think the tariff formula is valid? Why/why not?
Is t because you don’t understand it, or that you can’t defend it that you are not answering q
Clint? Is it because you don’t understand it, or that you can’t defend it that you are not answering questions about the tariff formula?
barry’s TDS is so severe he’s repeating himself, babbling incoherently.
I wouldn’t need to repeat myself if you answered the question.
But we don’t have to pretend that you have the slightest idea about any of this.
Barry
See what I mean about Clint R. No real reason for him to post except to try and annoy you. Even though Clint R is a arrogant insulting loudmouth, one can feel sorry for such a pathetic human who delights at annoying people.
Child Norman, you never finished your homework:
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2025/04/uah-v6-1-global-temperature-update-for-march-2025-0-58-deg-c/#comment-1702319
Finish your work, then you can go outside and play.
I know, but anyone else reading along gets a clear view of what he is when he constantly dodges straight questions and does his schtick.
barry, if you, Norman, Nate, and the rest of your cult dodge straight questions and are insulted by reality, it’s okay with me.
Yup Clint R, you are a sad person. Your sole pleasure in life is to annoy people. Sad, really is!
I don’t know Norman. Clint appears to be chipper most of the time. You on the other hand, very sad.
Yes lobbing insults makes him feel better about himself.
SOLAR MINIMUM UPDATE
Donald is seeking to end nearly all of the climate research conducted by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA), one of the countrys premier climate science agencies, according to an internal budget document seen by Science. The document indicates the White House is ready to ask Congress to eliminate NOAAs climate research centers and cut hundreds of federal and academic climate scientists who track and study human-driven global warming.
https://www.science.org/content/article/trump-seeks-end-climate-research-premier-u-s-climate-agency
Make the Democratic Republic of America Great Again!
Finally defunding of climate shaisters
Want some tarr and feathers with that ???
This coterie includes Roy Spencer and John Christie. Apparently they have been wasting taxpayer money?
They are essential for forecasts beyond two weeks. For the US, they are crucial because of the prediction of hurricane paths.
Willard, why not compare the UK met office with noaa? In the UK the Met office uses a lot of junk sites, or even made up ones to justify their point of view. If NOAA any better? If not then why fund it?
stephen,
Can you help me out? Does the currently proposed Republican budget, which Trump approves constitute the largest increase to the US debt from a single bill?
Just want to make sure I got that straight or not.
Barry,
Since Trump has no control over about 86% of the budget which is entitlements and defense spending, the only thing he can help control is the other 14%. The problem with Democrats is they did not want to control even that. That’s why it is all going to come crashing down but at least during the crash we will have an intelligent leader who will make the necessary decisions in charge. And, not some left wing nut job like Harris or Newsom.
stephen,
Did you have trouble understanding my question?
The Republican budget has shuttled between the house and the senate. As far as I can make out the current proposal, which Trump would be willing to sign off, would be the largest increase on federal debt of any previous bill.
Could you confirm if this is true or not, please? just want to be sure that I have the correctly, or not.
Of course, if my understanding is correct, my follow up would be to ask you what you think of this, when you have said it is vitally important the debt be reduced.
Already answered.
No, you ignored the question.
So I guess you agree that the proposed Republican budget is going to be the largest single addition to federal debt of any previous bill.
And I guess you don’t want to acknowledge that, considering your previous remarks on the importance of debt reduction.
The white House is right behind the bill.
“Since Trump has no control over about 86% of the budget which is entitlements and defense spending, the only thing he can help control is the other 14%.”
The President has no say about Defense spending? What have you been smoking Stephen?
And is the President being forced to cut taxes to further blow up the Debt?
Provide for the common defense is the one thing delineated in the Constitution. Where are you from Nate?
Are you weirdly trying to suggest the amount of Defense spending is specified in the Constitution?
Barry,
Will it beat the 10 trillion or so from the last round of Trump tax cuts?
Heavy snowfall in the northeastern United States.
https://i.ibb.co/ynNBYtQB/ventusky-rain-3h-20250412t1200-42n75w.jpg
Now we have the left continually fear mongering about Social Security benefits. Trump is going to take their benefits. Nature is. We need to cut entitlements by 40%. But we won’t. Trump won’t. But, nature will.
Meant to say Trump isn’t going to take their benefits but nature will.
How’s that Stephen?
Is he being forced to cut taxes and increase the Debt?
Nate,
So you think raising taxes is the answer? An aircraft carrier doesn’t turn on a dime.
Stephen, Either you actually are very concerned about drowning in Debt, or you just follow in lock-step with your Dear Leader regardless of the consequences.
Seems to be the latter.
Could stephen possibly referring to the culling of the herd when it is not being kept alive by government funding? Otherwise I can’t make out what he is saying.
Trump Wants to Be Impeached Again. It’s already in the cards thanks to his ill-founded trade war, no matter how that war plays out.
The Wall Street Journal, April 12, 2025.
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trump-wants-to-be-impeached-again-6f4ea931?st=pE1obU&reflink=article_copyURL_share
Ark is still confused about Trump’s tariffs. Not only does he not understand what Trump means by “reciprocal”, Ark doesn’t even understand the process of negotiation.
Some children can learn, but some have learning disabilities.
Trump does not understand ‘reciprocal’. Nothing in his ‘calculation’ relates to tariffs.
The question “Is the ball-on-a-string rotating about its COM axis?” it two steps removed from being an interesting scientific question.
First we need a definition of “rotating about its COM axis”. A simple, clear prescription for what different people might mean by “rotating about its COM axis”.
Even when that is resolved, there is still the bigger question of whether the proffered definition is useful for predicting the behavior of the universe.
It turns out that …
1) classical mechanics has a clear definition (yes, the ball is rotating about an axis through its COM; yes, the moon is rotating about an axis through its COM).
2) classical mechanics is spectacularly successful at predicting the motions of all manner of objects (including balls on strings AND moons).
Sorry Folkerts, but orbital motion is NOT “classical mechanics”. And even in classical mechanics, spinning is easily defined:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rotation#/media/File:Rotating_Sphere.gif
Adults know the ball is not rotating on its own axis (spinning) because if it were, the string would wrap around it. This has all been discussed many, many times, but you can’t learn.
So, you’re WRONG, as usual.
Funny that this
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rotation#/media/File:Rotating_Sphere.gif
Is exactly what distant observers at rest and not rotating in the inertial frame see when they look at the Moon.
tim …”It turns out that
1) classical mechanics has a clear definition (yes, the ball is rotating about an axis through its COM; yes, the moon is rotating about an axis through its COM).
2) classical mechanics is spectacularly successful at predicting the motions of all manner of objects (including balls on strings AND moons)”.
***
Long time, no see, Tim, where have you been hiding?
Classical mechanica covers the ball on a string problem quite easily. If we were examining the problem in an engineering tutorial, or even at home, the first thing we’d do is isolate the ball by cutting the string and replacing it with a force (tension) vector pointing away from the ball at its COM.
The next thing is to address the velocity/acceleration at an instant of time. As you said this can get messy, so we need to make assumptions. Is the ball rotating in a circle, which is the easier problem, and is it moving at a constant velocity. That’s actually all we need to prove our point, that the ball is rotating in a circle at constant velocity.
We then draw a velocity vector tangential to the force vector at the COM, which is considered to be acting in a ‘normal’ direction wrt the velocity vector.
I don’t know what could be simpler, Tim. Obviously the ball is restrained in its path by the tension on the string. That same tension prevents the ball from rotating about its COM. What you have here is a simple case of redirected linear motion without local rotation.
The “Spinners” have two commandments:
1) “Spinner” shalt never listen to “Non-Spinner”.
2) “Spinner” shalt never argue with “Spinner”.
The first commandment makes me well aware that there is no point me arguing with Tim about the ball on a string. I would recommend that Tim argues with Norman, RLH and Bindidon, who all agree that the ball on a string is not rotating about an axis that goes through the ball itself. Of course, that goes against the second commandment. But, that’s what I would recommend.
Mostly I have been away because I realize the discussions never go anywhere. For example …
Clint says orbits are not classical mechanics, but Gordon is clear that orbits ARE classical mechanics.
Neither comes out at gives a definition of “rotation”.
Clint appeals to Wikipedia, which starts with “Rotation or rotational/rotary motion is the circular movement of an object around a central line, known as an axis of rotation. ” There is a central line through the ball. All parts of the ball move in circle about that line. Therefore — by the definition of Clint’s own reference — the ball IS rotating about its own axis.
Gordon thinks that the ball is “rotating in a circle at constant velocity” — the ball is TRANSLATING at constant SPEED around the circle, and ROTATING at constant ANGULAR velocity.
DREMT comes in with meaningless declarations that don’t listen to what I wrote. Furthermore, he knows that I *have* disagreed with ‘spinners’ and also knows (or should have noticed) that the ‘non-spinners’ were directly contradicting each other about whether orbits are part of classical mechanics. The empirical evidence is thus that the NON-Spinners follow the two commandments:
1) NON-Spinner shalt never listen to Spinner.
2) NON-Spinner shalt never argue with NON-Spinner.
I made my recommendation, Tim. I know from experience that you simply won’t listen to me. So, talk to Norman, RLH, or Bindidon about it. There’s a chance you might listen to them.
You’re being very astute DREMT by not letting Folkerts drag you into another wasted effort to teach him orbital motion. Like Nate, he can’t learn. Folkerts believes all parts of Moon are moving around CoM — “There is a central line through the ball. All parts of the ball move in circle about that line.” In reality, all parts of Moon are moving WITH CoM.
The cult can’t face reality because they can’t go against cult beliefs.
Actually, let’s try this. Presumably Tim would agree that if no torque is applied about the CoM of the ball on a string, then it is not rotating about its CoM axis. So, I present to Tim the “perfect tetherball”:
The “perfect tetherball” is taken out into deep space, far from the gravitational influence of any nearby body. Let’s have it set up on the side of a spaceship, just for fun. A robot holds the ball between its thumb and forefinger, with the “massless string” kept taut, perpendicular to the pole. With its other hand it holds a small “gun” or “cannon” type device which can “shoot” a small platform out onto the side of the ball to impart the “sideways force” (in the direction of motion). The robot aligns the device “perfectly”, so that the force will be applied through the CoM of the ball, in the right direction. As the device is triggered, the robot lets go of the ball at the perfect moment to allow the motion to begin.
The string thus always acts through the CoM of the ball. There is never any torque about the CoM of the ball, the torque is instead applied about the external axis (located at the pole), imparted by the “gun”/“cannon”.
The “perfect tetherball” is therefore not rotating about its CoM axis.
Boy, was the oil industry wrong about Chris Wright!
https://youtu.be/ZY249GT_mUA
1/ Basically, what the oil and gas industry was facing during this election was a party in the Democrats that wants them to disappear completely, and a party in the Republicans that doesn’t want them to disappear, but they just want them to go bankrupt because their voters can’t afford gasoline unless it’s at 1992 prices.
So, it was a pick-your-poison situation. They thought that “at least Trump will appoint an energy secretary that is pro-oil and gas and will try to push things to actually help the industry, instead of bankrupt us.” And boy, were they wrong!
2/ Now, many oil executives are shocked to find that Trump is the same guy he was the first time around.
They had cheered and celebrated when Chris Wright was appointed Secretary of Energy, but it never occurred to them that Chris Wright is not an oil man. He owns a service company!
What does he know about what it takes for an oil company to survive? What does he know about break even prices? He’s a frac hand!
4/ And now the industry faces four years of Donald Trump which is going to be significantly worse than four years under Kamala Harris.
5/ Remember a couple of months ago when everybody on social media was all drill-baby-drill. You don’t hear that much anymore!
Due to the high SOI index, rainfall should be expected in northern and eastern Australia.
SOI values for 12 Apr, 2025
Average SOI for last 30 days 10.65
Average SOI for last 90 days 8.13
Daily contribution to SOI calculation 17.30
So Trump just issued two executive orders directing the DoJ to investigate two individuals from his previous administration that criticised him.
Here it is again, out in the open, this time accompanied by formal presidential directives.
He is weaponising the DoJ. Staffing it with loyalists was part of the program.
It’s as blatant as it gets. Presidential Orders! But all the conservatives (especially Trump) who without evidence were hotly accusing Biden of this will now congratulate Trump for “ordering justice.”
Every accusation is a confession.
barry, here you are, out in the open, revealing yourself as a child of the left. You understand little about reality.
But, I like your line: “Every accusation is a confession”. That certainly applied when you called me a “lying dog”.
You’re a leftist from Australia. We don’t care what you think.
Looks like you don’t care if a President abuses his powers.
Neither of you have a comment on the topic. Blatant ‘weaponisation’ of the DoJ, out in full view, and you have nothing to say about it.
It’s becoming a pattern. The less defensible the actions of the Trump administration, the more supporters become deaf, blind and mute to these actions.
Same with the tariff formula the administration issued to the public. Not a peep about what it actually is. As if it doesn’t exist.
barry, my topic is reality. I have little interest in your childish attempted perversions of reality, except to correct them as I have time.
You must be busy to have only time for short, vacuous remarks.
I’m too busy for childishness from people over the age of 12.
Such perverts hate reality.
Clint’s topic is whatever ad-hominem he picks from his standard list.
Everyone understands by now that he never has anything of substance to say.
His posts truly can be safely ignored.
You can’t ignore reality, child Nate.
stephen….”Gordo,
Give me a specific on how Trump is scoffing at the Constitution”.
***
Stephen…how about quite a few specifics? Everything he has done thus far is via executive orders, many of which require a specific emergency to enact them. That is thumbing his nose at the Constitution and bypassing Congress, who have the sole authority to deal with tariffs.
An emergency he used early on re tariffs aimed at Canada and Mexico is based on the lie that Canada and Mexico are allowing terrorists and drugs to cross the US border.
Excuse me??? Since when are we in Canada responsible for what goes into your country? We are responsible only for what comes out of your country, including illicit drugs. It is up to the US to patrol their own borders to prevent drugs and terrorists from entering.
We were blamed by US citizens for allowing the 9-11 terrorists into the US. BS. They were in the US on visas issued by the US and training on the type of aircraft they used to bomb the Trade Towers.
And how do we know who is a terrorist and who is a drug dealer? They don’t specify that on their passports, claiming to be a terrorist or a drug dealer by occupation. In fact, they don’t even bother with passports, they sneak across the long border between our countries and anything going south is the complete responsibility of the US government.
Borders are two-way conveyances. Anytime I have entered the US I’ve had to deal with US customs officials, not Canadian. I only deal with Canadian officials coming North via highways or east-west via aircraft. I can tell you, Canadian border officials are very tough and very thorough.
I worked at Vancouver airport (YVR) as a contractor. One of my fellow contractors was arrested by customs for entering their domain and thrown in their jail. I was harassed by one of them for using a Customs elevator, even though I had the clearance to use it, and my clearance was prominently displayed. No sir, you don’t mess with Canadian border officials.
stephen…”Now we have the left continually fear mongering about Social Security benefits. Trump is going to take their benefits. Nature is. We need to cut entitlements by 40%. But we wont. Trump wont. But, nature will”.
***
It’s a complex problem. I am not into seeing the government support someone who has no intention of working, or doing his/her part in society. Then again, we need enough jobs at decent wages to which people can go to work. That means enough jobs to meet the demand.
That is counter to capitalist/corporate thinking. They want a lack of jobs to increase competition and to make people more desperate to accept a pittance in wages and working conditions. Here in Canada, the government has deliberately created a 9% unemployment rate, more likely double than if all unemployed are counted, at the behest of corporate minds.
I often regarded jobs I had with the mentality that the moment I went to work I was giving up my rights and freedoms guaranteed to me by the Canadian Charter of Right and Freedoms. Many employers regarded me and others as part of a family to which I did not want to belong. All I wanted was to do my job, not engage in personal internal politics. That family had Big Daddy, the employer, at the head of the family and all of us willingly working for him as part of the family.
Absolutely amazing how a forum on weather and climate is hijacked for political bias.
The events in the US are unprecedented for that country, and being the most powerful country in the world by some distance on all fronts, THE superpower in this period, these significant changes are virtually certain to result in considerable international shifts in security and economy. We are all affected and it is unfolding fairly briskly. No wonder we talk about it.
Anon,
The reason all these leftists from all over the world post here about politics is because climate science isn’t about science. It is about politics. IPCC is not a scientific body. It is a political body. These leftists hate free-market capitalism and believe the best way to stop it is law to control energy production. Fossil Fuels are the heart of free-market capitalism and society in general. They hate their fellow citizens who have used capitalism to their advantage.
I think of myself as centrist – but the US is to the right of every modern democracy in the Western world.
It’s actually AGW ‘skeptics’ who bring politics into the science of climate change.
One of the most common refrains is what the economic consequences are of mitigating AGW. That’s a political issue, and it appears far more regularly than any kind of climate activism or political angle on climate change from science realists on this blog.
“These leftists hate free-market capitalism and believe the best way to stop it is law to control energy production.”
Witness who started making political claims about climate science first. Yep, an AGW skeptic makes it about politics.
Every accusation is a confession.
Barry, yep the events in the USA are interesting. Whether or not the world security changes is not relevant to the science of climate change.
There are numerous concerns about the science of CO2 feedback. That’s more interesting than the political bickering that this and many other threads on this site have descended into.
Personally, I think Bill Hunters view on the orbits has merit, it is a 3+ body problem.
I’m happy for any interesting chat on climate, but that is hard to come by here.
bill’s sub millennial cycles from orbital variations amount to climastrology. There is no basis for it in the literature.
Barry, are you saying that the earths orbit doesn’t affect the climate. Are you relying on what others have said, or have you assessed it yourself?
I’ve read 50+ published papers and numerous other sources on the subject of climate change due to orbital variation. Mainly on Milankovitch cycles, including papers estimating the changing strength/incidence of solar radiation due to orbital variations.
As you know Barry we ask for sources around here. This is one small topic thats even on the fringes of Milutin Milanković’s work.
Strangely Milutin Milanković’s most famous text that is the accepted explanation for ice ages is missing in every library I have found that carries a catalog card for it. . .including the Library of Congress. that edition I have been looking for is the jerusalem english translation of “Canon of Insolation and the Ice-Age Problem”
Why do you suppose such a seminal work would be so unavailable?
Certainly if you have a source that explains the mechanics of all this in mathematical terms I would be very interested. I found two both done to incorporate work Milanković into CO2 theory over 45 years ago. That one lists several orbital periodicities in a graphic which I have previously discussed in here. But no discussion.
Another one listed changes to orbital eccentricity as accounting historically for ~55% of climate change due to changes in the mean insolation on the earth’s climate system. but that was decreased a little bit to make room for CO2. So I derived the 55% historical number by proportioning anthropogenic CO2 among the natural perturbations.
And thats compared to the the other two that only affects polar exposure variations and as a result changes albedo but doesn’t affect the mean solar insolation.
So if correct they estimate that 55% of the ice age conditions results from changes in received insolation which mean orbital perturbations of speed and distance.
There is no question there should be an accounting for this.
I found hardcopies of the book online for nearly $3000. Apparently it is extremely rare, having had few copies made, for any of the editions. That may be why there is no easily discoverable digitised version.
I read this work, among others, on Milankovitch and orbital variation:
https://sci-hub.se/https://doi.org/10.1029/RG026i004p00624
The following was published well after my flurry of reading some years back. It’s a briefer overview.
https://sci-hub.se/https://doi.org/10.1007/s40828-020-00120-z
What I did in the late 2000s was go to google scholar and type in “milankovitch cycles”, and read a bunch of stuff that looked relevant. As I read I came up with new search terms to refine my interest in orbital variations and climate, ultimately reading papers that mathematically estimated changes in insolation incidence, wanting to figure out for myself how much warming could be attributed purely to this, absent any feedback mechanisms.
You could easily do the same.
If you have trouble getting full versions, find the doi and paste it into the home page of the website above. You can often get a full version that way.
You won’t find Milankovith’s canonical work there, because it is not peer-reviewed. It hasn’t been digitally scanned, and doesn’t have a DOI.
anon…hijack is too harsh. Most of us have been here for years, commenting every day, and it gets to the point where all weather and climate scenarios get covered. When a big event that can change the world for the worst comes along, we diverge somewhat.
Along the way we have proved that the Moon does not rotate on its own axis, that times does not exist, and that 2nd law still applies.
Technically, when someone hijacks a thread, he/she comes into a thread and redirects it to his/her point of interest. Most of us who post here are commenting on Trumps melt down.
Why don’t you post something controversial re weather/climate?
Well put, Gordon.
I am referring only to your first paragraph…
Gordon,
The original poster was Dr Roy and the original subject was temperature data records. So it was not about Trump.
As long as nasa keeps recording data and allows public access to raw data, then good.
“allows public access to raw data”
Interestingly one of the many initiatives of the new Admin has been to remove public access to climate data from gov web sites.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/21/climate/government-websites-climate-environment-data.html
Because, apparently, we don’t need to know…
Gordo,
Is it true Montreal Police beat and jailed a jouurnalist for covering a rally? Sounds like Australia.
Stephen, no whataboutism can undo the abuses of our current government.
Unfortunately this blog has been taken over by Leftists, Anon.
Dr. Spencer does not like it and has tried to do something about it, but does not favor censorship. He has asked the abusers to at least restrict how much they comment. But people like barry, gordon, and nate, cannot control themselves.
He’s not commented on that, whereas he has written whole articles debunking the anti-science ‘no GHE’ nonsense pushed regularly by several people here, such as Clint.
Child Nate, I’ve asked several times for you to provide even one instance where I have the physics wrong.
You can’t.
So grow up and quit stalking me.
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2025/04/uah-v6-1-global-temperature-update-for-march-2025-0-58-deg-c/#comment-1702344
Oh and when you claimed the far and near sides of the Moon have the same velocity.
When you claimed the Moon has no angular momentum.
When you claimed a black body could reflect light like a mirror if it came from a colder source.
Etc etc
Are you throwing things against the wall hoping something will stick, Nate?
Which ONE of those do you believe is wrong? I’ll only discuss ONE. I don’t have time to teach you a full course in physics. Pick your favorite, and state why you believe it is wrong, and I’ll explain it to you.
You get ONE chance, don’t blow it.
nate…you need to be careful with that one. Even though the near side and far side move at different velocities does not mean they don’t complete the orbit in exactly the same time. From that perspective, the ‘average speed’ of both sides is the same.
BTW…the average speed is also the change in angle (angular velocity) of a radial line drawn through the body wrt the x-axis. The further out from the axis along the radial line you get, the faster a point will be moving. That is not of interest in orbital mechanics with a rigid body, only the velocity of the radial line. Ergo, the different particle velocity argument is a moot point.
Remember, this is a rigid body problem in which all particles in a body are required to complete an orbit in the same time. That’s the reason that particles in larger radius orbits have to move faster than particles on inner radius orbits.
nate…”I am referring only to your first paragraph”
***
Nate…got a chuckle out of that one. I did not expect you to agree with my comment….”Along the way we have proved that the Moon does not rotate on its own axis, that times does not exist, and that 2nd law still applies”.
I hope we all maintain a sense of humour and perspective about what we write. Obviously, there is an emotional divide between skeptics and alarmists, right and left, and I hope we can all be aware of that and see past it.
I have life-long friends who are right-wingers and it has never gotten in the way of our friendship. We’ve had some good arguments over politics, and a current lady-friend tells me to ‘shut up’ about global warming and science in general. By shut up, it means she is right and I am wrong. Makes me giggle.
She is right..
“Ill only discuss ONE. I dont have time to teach you a full course in physics.”
Bwa ha ha!
I have no interest in being ‘taught’ Clint-physics, otherwise known as Fizzux.
Child Nate you had a chance, but you blew it.
Nate,
Again your bias is glaring. He hasn’t debunked anything. As a matter of fact he state he doesn’t know how much if any man has contributed to warming. He believes that it is over half. But, it is only a belief based on nothing but his gut.
Roy Spencer has written whole articles debunking the anti-science no GHE nonsense, as well as explaining the anthro cause of CO2 rise.
Nate obviously doesn’t have the wherewithall to distinguish between questions of how much warming CO2 will produce at given future levels of emissions and denying that a GHE exists altogether.
Typical activist with minimal analytical skills whose only skill set is to attempt to smear anybody who doesn’t agree with him.
As per usual Bill cannot refute what I said, so tries to change the subject to something he can bait me on.
Will not take the bait.
Unwarranted.
Trump has denied North Carolina’s request for FEMA relief from Hurricane Helene, calling it “unwarranted.”
So, nothing for Americans rebuilding from disaster in Western NC which is still in ruins. He doesn’t care about anyone, or America, only power and money!
Trump won NC; and the most devastated 11th district he won by 13 points.
https://ncnewsline.com/2025/04/12/fema-will-stop-matching-100-of-helene-recovery-money-in-nc-stein-says/
Let them eat cake!
bill hunter…”You forget that Trump only annoys annoying people giving them back what they bring”.
***
I used to see him that way and found it amusing when he PO’d the likes of NATO for not paying their fair share. Then I saw him rudely, and uncouthly, attack Canadian PM Trudeau, who was visiting. He began egging him about Canada becoming the 51st state and making Trudeau the governor. Then he repeated it, bullying Ukraine president, Zelensky, in the White House. Trump has a bully mentality, hardly the quality one would want to see in a president of a country like the US.
He was not joking. In the dark recesses of his mind, Trump actually believes that we in Canada are clamouring to join the US. He did the same with Greenland and Panama, sending his sycophant, JD Vance, to Greenland with his wife, hoping to sway Greenlanders. They received him with such hostility that he was forced to divert to the US forces base.
Can’t agree with you, Bill. I now regard Trump as a horse’s patooty. He seems to fashion himself after McKinley, who was assassinated by someone who he seriously annoyed. McKinley annexed Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and other territories and joined with the UK to build the Panama Canal. He was also into tariffs.
The problem with wannabees like Trump is that he lacks the insight required to understand someone like McKinley. He is trying to be a megastar president with a used car salesman’s mentality.
As the real Clint (not the toy Clint we have here) would say, ‘a man’s gotta know his limitations’. Trump fails to grasp that anyone with a semblance of intelligence can see right through him. Same with the toy Clint.
In another U-turn the Trump administration late Friday said it would exclude electronics such as smartphones and laptops from its recent tariffs.
YAY! No American made products! We’re winning.
I’m curious what the spin is now. We got no deal and now he’s backtracking on the most important things for the US to start manufacturing.
Yeah, no company in their right mind is going to start pouring billions into re-shoring manufacturing if this sh!t changes every day.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/clarification-of-exceptions-under-executive-order-14257-of-april-2-2025-as-amended/
Ark, add “clarification” to the growing list of things you don’t understand.
Perhaps Trump will clarify his intentions, but I’m not holding my breath.
At the moment the UK has a choice. Trade with the US who have 340 million people and are discouraging us using high tariffs, or China who have 1.4 billion people and no tariffs.
If we have to choose one, it should be China.
Entropic man.
My business experience dealing with China is thus:
In 1997 I was bidding on some oil fields in South America. My bid of USD 41 million was easily beaten by CNOOC (fully state-owned by the government of the People’s Republic of China) with a bid of USD 240 million.
After taking over the fields, CNOOC built a sprawling camp housing 200 imported workers. They utilized very little local labor or materials.
I came up against them again in 2007 in Damascus, Syria. I just walked away.
They play the long game. Not surprising for a 5,000 year old civilization.
Indeed if you are simpleton and believes a choice boils down to 2 variables. UK will continue to sell wherever they have customers willing to buy.
With production economic multiplier factors running 3 to 5 times. . .at the same price and quality its about 3 times or more better for the nation’s economy to buy entirely US made and sold goods than entirely foreign made and sold goods.
Thats why the EU and China and others erect trade barriers. And tariffs are but one form of trade barrier. A more common trade barrier is just out and out prohibiting an import of the goods.
10,000 food additives prohibited in Europe but allowed here (per the press) means 10,000 trade barriers.
https://tinyurl.com/mryk3rys From MSN in Dec 2024
”The $690 Billion Breakup: How Chinas Trade Shift is Reshaping Global Economics”
“at the same price and quality”
If that were the case we would not import so much.
If one believes in the free market at all, then one has to let products be made where they can be made at the lowest cost.
Nate says:
”at the same price and quality”
If that were the case we would not import so much.
———————-
Thats true but one has to be conscious of the abuses one is supporting following that philosophy.
Thanks for the April 11 executive order, Ark:
“In Executive Order 14257, I stated that certain goods are not subject to the ad valorem rates of duty under that order. One of those excepted products is semiconductors. The subsequent orders issued in connection with Executive Order 14257 i.e., Executive Order 14259 of April 8, 2025 (Amendment to Reciprocal Tariffs and Updated Duties as Applied to Low-Value Imports from the Peoples Republic of China), and the Executive Order of April 9, 2025 (Modifying Reciprocal Tariff Rates to Reflect Trading Partner Retaliation and Alignment), (Subsequent Orders) incorporate the exceptions in Executive Order 14257, including for semiconductors.”
April 14:
“Donald Trump says he will announce the tariff rate on imported semiconductors over the next week, with new sector-specific tariffs to be created.
It comes just two days after the White House issued a tariff exemption for various electronics, which it now says is temporary.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-14/donald-trump-to-announce-tariffs-on-semiconductors/105174046
This administration may break records for the amount of “clarifications” they have issued.
“We issue the most clarifications of any administration, I think. It’s a beautiful word, “claRIFIcation. There’s going be so much clarification over next few the weeks and months. And years, probably. You’re going to get tired of all the clarification.”
D Trump, probably.
Hmmmm. EO issued April 11. Double April fools?
Barry,
What do you think about the Supreme Court ruling 9-0 in favor of the President that he can deport Abrego Garcia to El Salvador and that the Distric Judge has no say in the matter?
I think you have been misinformed.
Here is the SCOTUS ruling.
https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/24pdf/24a949_lkhn.pdf
Here is the overview of the case at Wikipedia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deportation_of_Kilmar_Abrego_Garcia#Emergency_docket_appeal_to_the_Supreme_Court
I’ll quote from SCOTUS itself.
“The United States acknowledges that Abrego Garcia was subject to a withholding order forbidding his removal to El Salvador, and that the removal to El Salvador was therefore illegal…
The [Government] application is granted in part and denied in part, subject to the direction of this order. Due to the administrative stay issued by THE CHIEF JUSTICE, the deadline imposed by the District Court has now passed. To that extent, the Governments emergency application is effectively granted in part and the deadline in the challenged order is no longer effective. The rest of the District Court’s order remains in effect but requires clarification on remand. The order properly requires the Government to “facilitate” Abrego Garcia’s release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent to El Salvador. The intended scope of the term “effectuate” in the District Courts order is, however, unclear, and may exceed the District Courts authority. The District Court should clarify its directive, with due regard for the deference owed to the Executive Branch in the conduct of foreign affairs. For its part, the Government should be prepared to share what it can concerning the steps it has taken and the prospect of further steps.”
In a separate case SCOTUS recently rules that nominated de[portees may not be deported without having been given notice of their deportation, time to prepare a defence, and that they must be given the right of due process (a hearing in a court) before deportation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J.G.G._v._Trump#Supreme_Court
No ruling was made on whether the Alien Enemies Act is applicable in these cases.
What makes you believe the United States government can carry out extrajudicial deportations? Is it because the United States government told you that?
Barry,
Reread the ruling. First, 9-0 District judges have no authority in foreign matters. Second, not obligated to effectuate release. Third, can facilitate his transport if he does get released. Why do leftists love criminals more than they like victims?
You’re trying to hang on to your firsty, incorrect paraphrase of the ruling. You wrote:
“The Supreme Court ruling 9-0 in favor of the President that he can deport Abrego Garcia to El Salvador and that the District Judge has no say in the matter?”
1. The Supreme Court affirmed the Government’s own admission that the deportation was illegal.
“The United States acknowledges that Abrego Garcia was subject to a withholding order forbidding his removal to El Salvador, and that the removal to El Salvador was therefore illegal…”
So, no. It was illegal for the president to deport Abrego-Garcia.
The district judge does indeed have a say in the matter. Quoting the SCOTUS ruling again:
“The rest of the District Courts order remains in effect but requires clarification on remand. The order properly requires the Government to “facilitate” Abrego Garcias release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent to El Salvador.”
It seems you have (or some source you have absorbed has…) omitted much of the ruling and clung only to the parts of the ruling that you think favour your view.
I provided the link to the whole ruling for a reason. You have been misinformed.
I also provided a link corroborating that the president (the Government) cannot deport people without due process, which is definitely what happened for the gentleman in question – which is why the government admitted it had made an error – and probably all the Venezuelans deported.
I can read English. I read the SCOTUS ruling. All of it. I suggest you do the same. It is tiresome to have a discussion with people deliberately who deliberately omit inconvenient evidence. I have to waste time highlighting what they should, if they were fair minded, have already absorbed.
“Why do leftists love criminals more than they like victims?”
We love having the rule of law, rather than mob rule.
In our country everyone has the right to due process. Else anyone the govt doesn’t like can be called a ‘criminal’ and locked up or worse.
The government didn’t admit the deportation was illegal. Some DOJ bureaucrat whose been fired said it was in error. It wasn’t. The guy had a deportation order. He was El Salvadorian, not a Maryland man. He was here illegally. He is a gang member. He ain’t coming back. Good riddance.
“He is a gang member.”
Just repeating propaganda you heard. No court determined that. He got no due process.
A court did determine earlier that he should have protected status and should not be shipped to El Salvador.
Our govt ignored that court order. Because we no longer have rule of law.
No, stephen, I did not quote the DoJ bureaucrat or the district court judge I quoted the SCOTUS ruling.
“The United States acknowledges that Abrego Garcia was subject to a withholding order forbidding his removal to El Salvador, and that the removal to El Salvador was therefore illegal”
You asked what I thought about SCOTUS giving carte blanche to the government to deport Abrego Garcia. So I quoted the SCOTUS ruling above, which you seem to not be able to read through whatever lenses prevent you.
You also said the district judge has no say in the matter, so I quoted SCOTUS on that.
“The rest of the District Court’s order remains in effect but requires clarification on remand. The order properly requires the Government to “facilitate” Abrego Garcia’s release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent to El Salvador.”
You are misinformed.
I believe you are ideologically incapable of even allowing yourself to absorb those parts of the SCOTUS ruling, much less talk about them.
I fully expect that even after a 3rd time pointing to them your eyes will just glide right past them, and you will prove again that you are cognitively incapable of dealing with these specific rulings from SCOTUS.
You’ll talk about anything but what is in clear contradiction of what you said. It will continue to be as if you didn’t read what SCOTUS ruled here.
I hope you reply. It will be a good case study in strong confirmation bias, where conflicting information is so well filtered out that the person literally does not see evidence that is starkly contrary to their opinion.
“Some DOJ bureaucrat whose been fired said it was in error.”
Whoops! Telling the truth will get you fired in this government.
Or investigated.
You really think this is how government should operate, Stephen?
The cult kids must believe negotiating trade agreements is as easy as buying a lollipop. They have no understanding of the complexities involved.
International negotiating is complicated. It’s somewhat like a chess game. One side makes a move, then the other makes a move, and on and on until the end. We know Trump is winning because many countries have already agreed to alter their trade restrictions. In addition, many companies have announced plans to build manufacturing plants here. Even if no more progress is made, USA is already better off than before. But Trump’s not finished….
The process is beyond the understanding of children, as we can see from their comments here.
Clint R
So what was broken that required massive changes? One could just as easily worked on negotiations without massive disruptions and negative feelings. Not sure what your point is. You rarely have anything of value. Now you sound like a Fox News junkie.
Just more insults and false accusations from Norman. Even barry has learned such childishness doesn’t work: “Every accusation is a confession.”
“The cult kids must believe negotiating trade agreements is”
Not done by threatening then withdrawing tariffs on a weekly basis.
No doubt you will spend a couple of paragraphs explaining the historical value of this approach, as opposed to the more structured, deliberative approaches that included actual negotiation over months before threatened tariffs were implemented.
Like the “more structured, deliberative approaches” Biden used to correct trade restrictions, border crossings, higher inflation, etc???
You don’t understand any of this barry.
“Like the “more structured, deliberative approaches” Biden used..”
Like every president before Trump who negotiated trade deals.
You can’t describe the tariff formula, you can’t explain what Trump is doing and you don’t know your history. And to cover all that you declare no one else knows anything. You poor, transparent sap.
Trump is winning, barry.
Face reality.
I recognize your insults and false accusations as both your confession and your concession.
You poor, deluded, transparent sap.
Trump is not winning.
Not in the polls – he has lost a lot of ground.
Not on the economy – the price of things are a bit more expensive than in January and the stock market went down and has not fully recovered since he started his trade war, which will result in higher prices.
Not in court – his EOs have been stayed or overturned.
Not on tariffs – he backed down after the stock markets fell and investors started selling off US bonds. Hopefully he keeps backing down to a reasonable negotiating position so the economy doesn’t tank.
Mexico, Panama, Canada, Greenland, Ukraine, Yemen, Gaza, Iran, China, the list continues to grow. Trump is winning everywhere.
Even on the golf courses….
King Henry-8 always ‘won’ in sporting events too.
Otherwise Trump has won against penguins, but that’s about it.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-tariffs-trade-war-global-penguins-not-putin-1235309637/
Testing
SOLAR MINIMUM UPDATE
For March, receipts grew 11% or $36 billion from a year earlier to $368 billion, while outlays fell 7% or $40 billion to $528 billion, the Treasury said. But since March started on a weekend, $83 billion in benefit payments for the month were shifted into February. Without this shift, the March deficit would have been $244 billion, an increase of $24 billion or 11% from a year earlier.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-march-budget-deficit-falls-161-bln-customs-revenue-rises-2025-04-10/
This doesn’t say how much Bukele charged for his gulag services, or if he was paid in BTC.
WIN WIN WIN!
The current news is not good for those who want to see Trump fail, or want to see the USA lose to China. The war against the USA, that has been going on since President Xi took office as dictator for life, is getting more intense.
How many remember the Panama Canal story? The claim was that Trump was threaten Panama. It got intense news coverage. Too bad for the doubters, but it is settled. Panama has cancelled the port contracts with China (or will shortly), and made new contracts with US companies. That was what Trump wanted.
The stock market is slowly recovering with a good performance today. Most of the countries that want good business relationships with the US are moving toward negotiations. This is the desired outcome. A “trade war” was never the intent of the tariffs.
China is the exception. Some say that is bad. The fact is they have played their weak hand for the world to see. Trump still holds a good hand with good cards. China does not want fair trade. They want to use our money to finance their massive military expansion. Why do they need a big military? Is it just about Taiwan? What else do they want?
There are news reports about very naive Europeans wanting to extend trade relations with China. Good luck with that.
Putin is in the process of playing his weak hand showing he does not want to end the war. It remains to be seen how Trump will react to this. Having first extended friendship, Trump is now in a position to say “we gave you a chance to do it the easy way”. We have some very capable missile systems including cruise missiles he could send to Ukraine. That is what the EU wants. Stay tuned.
The southern border is essentially shut down. People got the memo. The SCOTUS says a regional district judge cannot make US foreign policy.
Despite the complaints from the opposition Democrat media, the DOGE is actually making good progress finding all kinds of problems while also making some notable mistakes. In the end, it will have been a very successful effort on the part of Musk and his band of expert computer analysts to figure out how the government works and what might be possible in the way of cost reduction.
“This is the desired outcome. A trade war was never the intent of the tariffs.”
Some here appear to be very accepting of the White House’s post-hoc rationalizations of their erratic and damaging policies.
DT has been a true believer in Tariffs for many years, and he only flinched and reversed many of the tariffs when he was shown that the Bond and Stock Market were nearing meltdown.
Then he reversed tariffs on China produced electronics when he realized that Americans would notice the drastic rise in phone prices.
If the goal was always to fix China, that does not explain away the large tariffs on the rest of the world, many allies, excluding Russia.
Nate,
What are you going to say when the bond and stock markets melt down anyway?
The vast majority of Americans understand that Trump will own any economic downturns and inflation that commences this year due to his policies.
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/president-trumps-tariff-plan-brings-concerns-about-prices-cbs-news-poll-finds/
Oh, OK, so the economic downturn which started months ago is because of the Trump tariffs which he has backed off of so any downturn in the future will be because of some other yet unnamed policy decision that you will find to blame it on?
Stop gaslighting Stephen.
“A trade war was never the intent of the tariffs”
Facepalm. A trade war is never a goal. It is the stoush to achieve goals. Why post such inanities?
Because you’re pretending to be an objective commentator while actually spruiking for Trump.
Please don’t bother with the neutral posture. It’s patently false.
As for the tariff shemozzle – like so many Trump initiatives, it is ill-conceived, from the gut gestures and tweets. There’s no plan. they’re winging it and having to back down or reverse course,like so many of the other initiatives of this administration. When will you realize they are not strategic, they are ideologues mostly winging it, and mostly getting it wrong, like using Signal to share upcoming strike details.
Ther amateur hour of this mob is breathtaking, on every level.
Nate
” … excluding Russia. ”
*
No wonder: The Trumping boy is clearly behaving like what he is: Putin’s obedient acolyte.
He doesn’t even have the balls to attack him and instead, incredibly, accuses Ukraine once again of having started the war which as everyone knows was initiated by Putin and his Moscow henchmen.
Look:
” Donald Trump has questioned Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s competence and suggested Ukraine started the war against Russia which is ’20 times’ its size.
It comes a day after 35 people, including two children, were killed by two Russian missiles that struck the northeastern city of Sumy as Ukrainians gathered to celebrate Palm Sunday in what was the deadliest strike on the country so far this year, according to officials. ”
*
This now is even more incredible:
” The US president also said ‘millions of people are dead because of three people‘ – blaming Russian President Vladimir Putin, his White House predecessor Joe Biden, and Mr Zelenskyy, in that order. ”
Is it possible to be dumber than Trump? I doubt.
*
The fact is that dictator Putin had no problem sending hundreds of thousands of Russians into this battlefield, which one could essentially call a meat grinder: according to mostly best-informed UK military sources, 250,000 died, 700,000 were ‘only’ injured, but most of them were actually closer to death than life (many of these soldiers were released from prison with the cruel promise of being released ‘after the war’).
And even crueler: Trump’s ally, the Putin pig, had no problem not only deliberately sending Iranian Shahed drones and Russian missiles at numerous residential buildings in Ukraine – purely civilian targets -which resulted in well over 10,000 civilian deaths, but also having spokesman Dmitry Sergeyevich Peskov (Putin’s Karoline Leavitt, so to speak) announce that they had only attacked military units carefully hidden among the population!
**
Source
https://news.sky.com/story/donald-trump-blames-volodymyr-zelenskyy-for-starting-ukraine-war-a-day-after-dozens-killed-in-russian-missile-strikes-13349001
via
https://www.lefigaro.fr/international/vous-ne-commencez-pas-une-guerre-contre-quelqu-un-20-fois-plus-grand-que-vous-trump-s-en-prend-de-nouveau-a-zelensky-20250414
{ The French newspaper Le Figaro isn’t as extremely far right-wing as Breitbart, Fox News, New York Post etc; it is however still anything but ‘leftist’ – except in the pea brain of those brazen idiots who claim that even bloodthirsty dictators like Pinochet are so. }
***
Anyone who doesn’t understand what Trump’s kowtowing to the Putin pig is all about, needs only to translate excerpts from this report using Google Translate:
https://www.ukrinform.fr/rubric-society/3974743-regis-gente-journaliste-francais-auteur-du-livre-sur-les-liens-de-trump-avec-la-russie.html
*
More you don’t need.
Bindi, “Russian collusion” was a hoax. Think “Hillary”. It’s all be discredited, but now FBI participants are being investigated.
I agree completely that Trump needs to clarify his comment about the “mistake”. Putin has been bombing civilians on purpose from the start and still is. His bombs hit their targets.
The rest of your quotes are misleading and out of context. None of the pundits have any knowledge of Trump’s conversations with Putin, or what his true opinion is of Putin. All we know, and I believe him, is that he wants to end the war whether that means a victory for Zelensky or not.
This transcript was easy to find. He fully clarifies his blame assertions. The conversation starts with a reporters question marked as 11:27. The conversation ends at a reporters question marked as 15:20.
https://www.rev.com/transcripts/trump-meets-with-the-president-of-el-salvador
[2,500, it’s a killing field. It’s like the Civil War. You take a look. I look at the satellite pictures. This should not be happening in our time. Of course, our time can be pretty violent as we know. But that’s a war that should have never been allowed to start. And Biden could have stopped it and Zelenskyy could have stopped it and Putin should have never started it. Everybody’s to blame.]
This next one seems like he is blaming Zelensky again:
[Have you spoken to President Zelenskyy, sir, out his offer to purchase more Patriot missile batteries?
Donald Trump (13:51):
Oh, I don’t know. He’s always looking to purchase missiles. He’s against Listen, when you start a war, you got to know that you can win the war, right? You don’t start a war against somebody that’s 20 times your size and then hope that people give you some missiles. If we didn’t give them what we gave, remember I gave them Javelins. That’s how they won their first big battle. With the tanks that got stuck in the mud and they took them out with Javelins. They have an expression that Obama, at the time, Obama gave them sheets and Trump gave them Javelins. But just something that should have never happened. It’s a really shame. The towns are destroyed. Towns and cities are largely destroyed.]
This is the one with his “three people” quote where he actually blames “Putin, number one”.
[And most importantly, you have millions of people dead. Millions of people dead because of three people, I would say three people. Let’s say Putin, number one. But let’s say Biden who had no idea what the hell he was doing, number two and Zelenskyy. And all I can do is try and stop it. That’s all I want to do. I want to stop the killing. And I think we’re doing well in that regard. I think you’ll have some very good proposals very soon.]
I think Trump is wrong about proposals coming soon. I think Putin is playing games and has no intent to have a cease fire or negotiate any time soon. I think Trump will need to turn up the heat in some way.
And he’s wrong about Ukraine doing this:
‘You dont start a war against somebody thats 20 times your size and then hope that people give you some missiles.’
But glad to see you are coming back to reality on ‘Peace in our time’, Tim.
The only people who can have a rational conversation about who started what are those who are students of the history of Ukraine since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and their relations with Russia since then. That last 15 years or so is very crucial. There are a lot of allegations and counter-allegations that are not well known by western observers.
“rational conversation about who started what”
That could not be Trump.
Part of the history is The 1993 Tracy between Ukraine Russia and the US that guaranteed Ukraine’s sovereignty in exchange for its Nukes.
Does sovereignty mean you get to make your own internal policies. Yes it does.
It is plainly obvious who invaded who.
Anybody suggesting this was justified is ignoring history.
For example the justifications used by Russia were quite reminiscent of those used by Germany when it invaded Poland.
‘Tracy’ — was meant to be ‘Treaty’.
F*king autocorrect.
Test
If you get forbidden 403 notise try browser proxy setting or google “online proxy site” and try one of those
it worx for me
Thank you, Eben.
I would like to discuss Dr. Roy Spencer’s 2016 article, which I am studying right now.
Link:
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/09/errors-in-estimating-earths-no-atmosphere-average-temperature/
I would like something only Dr. Spenser is capable to answer, because, I quote:
“If I use the more traditionally-used Earth albedo value of 0.3, I get a global average surface temperature of 251 K, which is only 5 deg. C below the single solar flux calculation of 256 K. Thus, the error caused by using a single global average solar flux to estimate a global average terrestrial temperature in the S-B equation is much less for the Earth than it is for the Moon.”
Please, Dr. Roy, would you like to run the model in the case for the planet Mars?
Mars rotates almost as fast as Earth, and Mars has the average surface specific heat almost as Moon’s.
The solar flux on Mars is 586,4 W/m^2.
Also for Mars Te = 210 K
and Tsat = 210 K
It is interesting to find out how much would be the error in the case of Mars?
–
Banana Republic tier stuff… Happy Tax Day America!
The Trump administration has broken the law [again] by taking down a
website meant to show the public how federal funding is disbursed to agencies. They are trying to unlawfully hide how agencies are being directed to spend allocated funding.
https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.279473/gov.uscourts.dcd.279473.1.0.pdf
This is one reason they’re trying to hide federal expenditures:
https://ibb.co/DH2sZ4xN
So far, about USD 150 billion more has been spent in 2025 than in 2024.
The MAGA-wing of the GOP is incapable of effective governance
That comment doesn’t make any sense. So, you expect in less than 120 days for them to completely reverse the spending when you have entitlements increasing every day and the total debt increasing every day? You are devoid of all reality.
It is too early to see the impacts on federal expenditure of the Trump administration’s decisions and actions.
That is not the question, is it?
Federal expenditure is baked in for at least the first 3 months of Trump’s term, and we won’t see the impact of the culling of the federal bureaucracy until mid-year at the soonest, though the gains from (eventual) wage-related cost-reduction will have minor impact anyway. Things will become clearer at the end of the fiscal year, and more so at the end of the first 12 months. The budget hasn’t landed yet, but it is definitely going to add to the debt.
This in response to that.
I pity the not so wealthy in the US. The Trump administration’s economic policies are going to hammer them.
But that is not the worst of these feckless thugs.
The question is: why have the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and Director Russell Vought decided that they no longer wish to comply with the law?
Congress mandated that the OMB make public the apportionment of congressionally appropriated funds by implementing an “automated system” for posting apportionment documents and related information on a publicly accessible website, in a format that facilitates public use. Transparency in apportionments is intended to prevent abuses of power and to strengthen both congressional and public oversight of the spending process.
OMB complied with this requirement until March 24, 2025, when the website began displaying a “page not found” error. On March 29, 2025, Director Vought sent a letter to the Ranking Members of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees, Representative Rosa DeLauro and Senator Patty Murray, stating that the OMB “will no longer operate and maintain” the website mandated by law.
Yes your first post pointed out yet more illegal deletions of oversight. Your second post was off the mark.
“Your second post was off the mark.”
My follow up post is a statement of fact. Do you doubt the data?
Federal expenditure for the last 3 months has nothing to do with Trump’s decisions. They are baked-in congressional appropriations.
So the implication in your second post:
“So far, about USD 150 billion more has been spent in 2025 than in 2024.
The MAGA-wing of the GOP is incapable of effective governance”
Is ill-informed.
So far, about USD 150 billion more has been spent in 2025 than in 2024.
Musk April 2025: DOGE will cut $150 billion.
The MAGA-wing of the GOP is incapable of effective governance.
Stay in your lane.
…. after firing a bunch of inspectors general without replacing them, and gutting congressional oversight committees. It’s almost exactly like they don’t want the public to see what they are doing.
Their version of accountability and transparency is, “We’re tweeting all the facts to you all the time.”
barry, the firing was made public. You know about it. It was no secret, just like the firing of a bunch of corrupt FBI agents.
But, you didn’t know about all of the corruption going on under Biden. That doesn’t bother you. You’re only concerned when corruption is being outed.
You might want to examine your own corruption. You seem to have a hard time accepting reality.
“corrupt FBI agents”
None of whom will be in the courts.
The administration did not announce these firings, nor the gutting of the oversight committees. Nor did the administration file the required 30 days notice of the intention to fire the inspectors general. The information came from the AG’s themselves. The White House did all that quietly.
You are so divorced from reality that you don’t realize you’re making things up. You actually believe your own fantasies.
But even if the administration had publicly announced the gutting of oversight on federal government activities, you are so brain dead that you don’t realize you are (incorrectly) congratulating their transparency in getting rid of their transparency. You have an appalling logic deficit.
The event was “made public”. Sorry if Trump didn’t send you a personal email, barry.
But, you didn’t know about all of the corruption going on under Biden. That doesn’t bother you. You’re only concerned when corruption is being outed.
You might want to examine your own corruption. You seem to have a hard time accepting reality.
Do you want a “reality-check”? I seem to remember you fleeing from the last one….
“corruption going on under Biden”
None of which will ever be proved in court.
RLH, Biden pardoned hundreds and hundreds of the guilty.
Try to keep up.
“The event was “made public”. Sorry if Trump didn’t send you a personal email, barry.”
You’re so mendacious. You have no idea how the information was acquired – anonymous whistleblowers and the AGs themselves. The Trump administration made no announcements of any kind on these decisions to gut oversight of the federal government.
At least try to be honest sometimes, will you? You reek of falsehood.
Okay barry, it’s time for a reality-check:
When information is available to anyone interested, it has been “made public”.
Yes or no?
Just stop. You pong of deceit. You said the government was open about gutting oversight. You were wrong. Live with it. Stop digging. You’re just getting more crap on your shoes.
Hey Clint,
Barry called you a pong. What’s a pong? Is it an affectation?
barry, at least TRY to face reality. It’s okay to ask an adult for help. This is a learning activity. It’s a part of growing up.
When information is available to anyone interested, it has been “made public”.
True or false?
[Stephen, barry can’t face reality. Whenever I hit him with reality, he lashes out with hatred. Just like a typical Leftist, insults and false accusations are in their bag of tricks.]
Anybody who had the balls to investigate the government or tell the facts about government misdeeds during the previous Trump regime, is labeled ‘corrupt’.
Then they are fired or investigated.
It is truly weaponization of the government against any of its perceived enemies.
Which are on a long list that keeps on growing.
Do so called conservatives really support the government acting this way?
Musk 2024: DOGE will cut $2 trillion
Musk March 2025: DOGE will cut $1 trillion
Musk April 2025: DOGE will cut $150 billion
Musk soon: DOGE will cost more.
stephen…”What are you going to say when the bond and stock markets melt down anyway?”
***
I have never been a fan of stock markets. I learned as a young buck from a friend who was in the stock market just how devious it can be. Essentially, it is controlled by insiders even though they pay lip service to ‘insider trading’, claiming it is illegal.
Nudge, nudge, wink, wink, say no more, a nod’s as good as a wink to a blind bat.
Wall Street crooks brought the US to its knees economically in the mid-2000 decade. They tried the culprits but rather than throw them in jail, Obama rewarded them by hiring them as advisors to his government. That was Obama’s method of fulfilling his promise to clean up Wall Street.
Re tariff’s. The US was once the greatest manufacturing nation on the planet, with their prowess going a long way to arming the Allies in WW II. Mind you, the Allies did not get the aid for free, they paid through the nose for it for decades.
A Japanese advisor to the Japanese forces, who had lived in the States, warned Japan not to mess with the US due to their ability to mass-manufacture goods, including weapons of war. Of course, in their arrogance, the Japanese military ignored that and got their butts kicked, and good.
These days, US corporations responsible for such home-based manufacturing, have joined a global clique that has diverted home-grown manufacturing elsewhere on the planet. It was cheaper for them to have goods made in China, India, and Asia in general. So much for making the US great, greatness to them is how much of a profit is in it for them.
Example. During WW II, Rockefellar was caught selling oil to the Nazis through his company Standard Oil. When Roosevelt dragged him onto the carpet to explain, his response was ‘free enterprise must prevail above all’.
Many corporations in both the US and Canada farm out their office jobs to the likes of India and the Philippines. When I call my cell phone provider, a company claiming to be proudly Canadian, I get to talk with someone in the Philippines. If I contact Microsoft, I am directed to India.
Trump is trying to solve this globalization by penalizing Allies like Canada via tariffs. What he should be doing is talking to his wealthy corporate buddies about bringing the manufacturing home again, but we know how that one goes. They would crucify him financially.
Don’t kid yourself Stephen, these tariffs are intended as a base for appeasing the wealthy corporate types. He is trying to reduce their tax loads and that is why billionaires like Musk have jumped on board. Although he claims to be anti-tariff, he is benefiting immensely while Yanks he is responsible for laying off are suffering.
And how about Trump’s insider trading? When he advised people to buy when the stock market tanked for a couple of days, do you not think he knew it would rebound? And how much money did he and his family make from it?
Trump is playing US citizens like an old fiddle, while he and his cronies get wealthier and the average Yanks pays for it.
tim s…”China is the exception. Some say that is bad. The fact is they have played their weak hand for the world to see. Trump still holds a good hand with good cards”.
***
What weak hand? They are a major nuclear power with a significant armed force. You seem to be confused between the contexts of each country. China is a dictatorship and always has been a dictatorship. They have cheap labour and a huge labour force, so they can produce goods cheaply. As a dictatorship, they don’t particularly care about trade relationships with the US.
Furthermore, they have a population of about 1.4 billion people, roughly 3.75 time the population of the US.
The US, on the other hand, prides itself on being a democracy but it is actually administered and run by a small group of wealthy people. When Trump tries to get a deal with China, he is not representing the people of the US per se, but a few super-wealthy corporations.
By trying to broker a deal with China using right-wing deal-making practices, he is naively blustering because China doesn’t care.
***
“Putin is in the process of playing his weak hand showing he does not want to end the war”.
***
When Trump blusters about ending the war in Ukraine, he cannot without Russia’s agreement. They have said all along that their interest in the Ukraine is related to the millions of Russians trapped in the Ukraine by a mindless re-drawing of borders. Until that truth is recognized by the West, no deal is imminent. However, the West think the Russians are there due to mindless expansionism and as long as they retain that McCarthyist ideology, they cannot understand or talk to Putin.
The advantage Trump has is his willingness to talk to Putin. However, he is hampered by his inability to foster a deal without right-wing bs and with McCarthyists who will never see Russia as anything more than Pinko Commies.
Our problem with Russia and China is one of communication. Besides language, we are simply not talking the same language, the latter being vernacular for communication. Both Russia and China have immense problems that are being viewed through the eyes of Western capitalists who have neither the interest nor the ability to understand.
I watched an interview with Jamie Dimon. You may have heard of him. He says China has a lot of problems that are getting worse. The US has a very strong consumer economy. China does not. They absolutely rely on stealing other countries intellectual property and exports to the USA. Here are the facts:
China per capita GDP $12,600
USA per capita GDP $90,000
In a prolonged trade war China is more economically vulnerable, and the US is more politically vulnerable. The Chinese government could ride it out for a long time. Much less certain with the US government. Continued economic pain could flip congress. No such danger exists in China.
I don’t know about that. Trump can ride it out for 4 years. Then a Democrat can get elected and cave to China’s demands.
Yep, you can bet your life Trump doesn’t care what happens after him, or who suffers while he is in office. He’ll “ride it out” just fine.
Barry,
Did you know the Maryland Man was a wife beater? Do you feel gullible advocating for his return?
House Dems and Barry advocating for return of wife beater.
“Did you know the Maryland Man was a wife beater? Do you feel gullible advocating for his return?”
Where is this ‘information’ from Stephen?
Gordo,
That’s a lot to digest. But, some of your stuff is old wives’ tales. John D. Rockefellar died in 37 and Std. Oil had been broken up long before that. I do know American Corporations probably sold oil to the Nazis until the War started. A lot of antisemitic Christians during that time. I don’t think Trump has a lot of billionaire friends besides Musk. Gates, Bezos and others always express how they dislike Trump.
stephen…just want to e clear that I am not taking a shot at you or most of the good folk who live south of the Canadian border. I am taking a shot only at the super-wealthy who think there is one law for them and another law for the rest of us.
I have no time for anyone who thinks his/her personal wealth interest comes before the best interest of the average citizen in a country. That’s especially true during war.
There were other Rockefellers after John D. who were still associated with Standard Oil during WW II. I don’t know which one Roosevelt hauled onto the carpet but whoever it was, he was not apologetic for selling oil to the Nazis. Apparently Teagle was running Standard Oil at the time and he was a Nazi admirer.
This article gives an overview of US companies dealing with Germany and Japan during both world wars.
https://libcom.org/article/how-allied-multinationals-supplied-nazi-germany-throughout-world-war-ii
“The Secrets of Standard Oil
p32
In 1941, Standard Oil of New Jersey was the largest petroleum corporation in the world. Its bank was Chase, its owners the Rockefellers. Its chairman, Walter C. Teagle, and its president, William S. Farish, matched Joseph J. Larkin’s extensive connections with the Nazi government.
p33
From the 1920s on Teagle showed a marked admiration for Germany’s enterprise in overcoming the destructive terms of the Versailles Treaty. His lumbering stride, booming tones, and clouds of cigar smoke became widely and affectionately known in the circle that helped support the rising Nazi party. He early established a friendship with the dour and stubby Hermann Schmitz of I.G. Farben, entertaining him frequently for lunch at the Cloud Room in the Chrysler Building, Teagle’s favorite Manhattan haunt of the late 1920s and the 1930s. Teagle also was friendly with the pro-Nazi Sir Henri Deterding of Royal Dutch-Shell, who agreed with his views about capitalist domination of Europe and the ultimate need to destroy Russia”.
From another article…
https://mises.org/mises-daily/rockefeller-morgan-and-war
“It should be clear that the name of the political party in power is far less important than the particular regimes financial and banking connections. The foreign-policy power for so long of Nelson Rockefellers personal foreign affairs adviser, Henry A. Kissinger, a discovery of the extraordinarily powerful RockefellerChase Manhattan Bank elder statesman John J. McCloy, is testimony to the importance of financial power as is the successful lobbying by Kissinger and Chase Manhattans head, David Rockefeller, to induce Jimmy Carter to allow the ailing shah of Iran into the US thus precipitating the humiliating hostage crisis”.
Roosevelt and the leftists love Hitler and Mussolini through the 1930’s. They were kindred spirits. The Nazis took their Nuremberg Laws from the Jim Crow Laws of the Democrat South. But, you’re right, a lot of people make money on war. Don’t disagree. Trump isn’t one of those. He’s a Teddy Roosevelt type, speak softly.
It is truly amazing how Trump and his government are obsessed with finding and rooting out anti-semitism.
Is this the same guy who has been so concerned obout censorship of extreme views on social media?
Is this the same guy who supported the neo-Nazi marchers in Charlotte chanting ‘Jews will not replace us’ as including some very fine people?
Is the same guy who has met with and been supported by so many ‘white supremacist’ leaders who are often aligned with neo-Nazi groups?
Truly bizarre.
“Roosevelt and the leftists love Hitler and Mussolini through the 1930s. They were kindred spirits”
Sure Stephen, that’s why FDR worked so hard to get America to support the UK against Nazi Germany well before we entered the war..
You have very strange ideas Stephen.
In the fog of a trade war: The Tariff Shockwave.
Ocean container bookings from March 24-31 to April 1-8:
Looking ahead to the rest of 2025: continued uncertainty and ongoing volatility.
Container bookings had already been dropping for a year.
BP Makes Deepwater Oil Discovery in Gulf of Mexico.
P.s.: https://ibb.co/Kj1BrxJD
This post is aimed at Barry, who has labeled my observation (as a lifelong Republican) that “The MAGA-wing of the GOP is incapable of effective governance” as “ill-informed.”
Across the globe, observers with a critical perspective increasingly recognize the profound dysfunction of the Trump administration and the broader MAGA faction within the GOP. This faction, which once promised efficient governance that would foster innovation and modernize infrastructure, has instead delivered widespread institutional damage.
Rather than streamlining government, their approach has been marked by abrupt dismissals and a dismantling of state capacity-precisely the kind of degradation most likely to hinder innovation. In its place, unqualified and ideologically driven individuals have taken pride in undermining essential public services, including critical healthcare programs.
The cognitive dissonance required to justify the administration’s actions is unsustainable. Rarely has a government appeared so detached from empirical reality or so committed to promoting ideological narratives at odds with practical governance.
The authoritarian tendencies at the heart of MAGA were always likely to manifest in crude and counterproductive policies. The economic consequences of these policies-such as the imposition of tariffs-highlight the tangible costs of such mismanagement.
The Maga Wing is the Republican Party. The Neo Cons are about 3%.
Is this the end of winter in the northern US?
https://i.ibb.co/2Y78080s/gfs-hgt-trop-NA-f120.png
Now we see the Trump administration mobilizing, weaponizing, multiple government agencies to harass Harvard University. Now the IRS and Homeland Security are getting into the act, as never before.
Why? What is the purpose?
Why does our government need to f*k with a private university who has contributed so much to our society?
Why does our government feel the need to micromanage the teaching and admin at a private university?
Why is our government putting the brakes on many beneficial scientific endeavors?
Why is the IRS taking direction from the President to audit his political enemies?
Who is ok with this and why?
Sorry Nate, but your beliefs don’t match reality, as usual.
So settle down, it’s going to be alright.