Home/BlogThe Version 6.1 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for February, 2025 was +0.50 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean, up a little from the January, 2025 anomaly of +0.45 deg. C.
The Version 6.1 global area-averaged linear temperature trend (January 1979 through February 2025) remains at +0.15 deg/ C/decade (+0.22 C/decade over land, +0.13 C/decade over oceans).
The following table lists various regional Version 6.1 LT departures from the 30-year (1991-2020) average for the last 14 months (record highs are in red).
| YEAR | MO | GLOBE | NHEM. | SHEM. | TROPIC | USA48 | ARCTIC | AUST |
| 2024 | Jan | +0.80 | +1.02 | +0.58 | +1.20 | -0.19 | +0.40 | +1.12 |
| 2024 | Feb | +0.88 | +0.95 | +0.81 | +1.17 | +1.31 | +0.86 | +1.16 |
| 2024 | Mar | +0.88 | +0.96 | +0.80 | +1.26 | +0.22 | +1.05 | +1.34 |
| 2024 | Apr | +0.94 | +1.12 | +0.77 | +1.15 | +0.86 | +0.88 | +0.54 |
| 2024 | May | +0.78 | +0.77 | +0.78 | +1.20 | +0.05 | +0.20 | +0.53 |
| 2024 | June | +0.69 | +0.78 | +0.60 | +0.85 | +1.37 | +0.64 | +0.91 |
| 2024 | July | +0.74 | +0.86 | +0.61 | +0.97 | +0.44 | +0.56 | -0.07 |
| 2024 | Aug | +0.76 | +0.82 | +0.70 | +0.75 | +0.41 | +0.88 | +1.75 |
| 2024 | Sep | +0.81 | +1.04 | +0.58 | +0.82 | +1.31 | +1.48 | +0.98 |
| 2024 | Oct | +0.75 | +0.89 | +0.61 | +0.64 | +1.90 | +0.81 | +1.09 |
| 2024 | Nov | +0.64 | +0.88 | +0.41 | +0.53 | +1.12 | +0.79 | +1.00 |
| 2024 | Dec | +0.62 | +0.76 | +0.48 | +0.52 | +1.42 | +1.12 | +1.54 |
| 2025 | Jan | +0.45 | +0.70 | +0.21 | +0.24 | -1.06 | +0.74 | +0.48 |
| 2025 | Feb | +0.50 | +0.55 | +0.45 | +0.26 | +1.04 | +2.10 | +0.87 |
The full UAH Global Temperature Report, along with the LT global gridpoint anomaly image for February, 2025, and a more detailed analysis by John Christy, should be available within the next several days here.
The monthly anomalies for various regions for the four deep layers we monitor from satellites will be available in the next several days at the following locations:
Caused by the Arctic temps.
Yes, the HTE is still present in the Arctic and northwestern Europe.
How can this be? It is chilly at my house all month!
Here in south east Europe as well.
Coldest february since 2012.
Yes this Feb
https://www.wetteronline.de/?pcid=pc_rueckblick_data&pid=p_rueckblick_diagram&sid=StationHistory&diagram=true&iid=10385&gid=10385&month=03&year=2025&metparaid=TNLD&period=12&ireq=true
was a tiny bit cooler than 2024
https://www.wetteronline.de/?pcid=pc_rueckblick_data&pid=p_rueckblick_diagram&sid=StationHistory&diagram=true&iid=10385&gid=10385&month=03&year=2024&metparaid=TNLD&period=12&ireq=true
but Jan was a bit warmer.
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Here is 2011 to see what was recently really colder
https://www.wetteronline.de/?pcid=pc_rueckblick_data&pid=p_rueckblick_diagram&sid=StationHistory&diagram=true&iid=10385&gid=10385&month=03&year=2011&metparaid=TNLD&period=12&ireq=true
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And Feb 1956, Jan 1963, Jan 1979, Jan 1986/87 were way, way colder than what we experienced during this recent period:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1PTd2yfGJd04OosRbFBtbW9XOoFDc2mEY/view
It’s warming in Germany, final point.
4th warmest February, but statistically tied with February 1998. Here are the 10 warmest Febs on record.
2024 0.88
2016 0.70
2020 0.58
2025 0.50
1998 0.49
2010 0.30
2017 0.30
2019 0.21
2021 0.20
2002 0.14
Compared with 2017, the last year following a big El Nino, 2025, this year is 0.2C warmer.
Anything less than 60 years (20 years * 2) is just a statistical anomaly.
…(30 years * 2)…
Tell that to Monckton who will soon be spamming yet another 5 year pause.
I doubt it will stay like this, but based on the first two month of the year, 2025 is on track to be close to 2023. My current projection is 0.42 +/- 0.18C.
https://i.imgur.com/YTh7YPF.png
Strange how we allow oscillations but not anything around 60 years long.
I don’t see Monckton commenting here. Maybe you should wait for him in your bedroom.
A warm planet is a happy planet. 2025 is on track to be a good year.
The new Monckton Pause extends to 20 months and begins in 2023/06. The average anomaly during this period is 0.71 C.
The previous Monckton Pause peaked at 107 months beginning in 2014/06. The average anomaly during this period was 0.21 C. The warming rate since the beginning of the pause is +0.37 C.decade-1.
The leap from the previous pause to the current pause is currently 0.5 C.
silly stuff. bdgwx pays homage to the kind of snippet weather science that has informed his viewpoints.
since he fervently believes that natural weather semicycles don’t exceed 10 years and natural climate semicycles are never less than 50,000 years as stated by an element of mainstream climate science; the so-called Monckton pause is his favorite target to mock.
A ten year semicycle has long been recognized by NASA as a result of the motions of Saturn and Jupiter.
the monckton pause was likely a result of a cooling jupiter/saturn semicycle combined with the lowest energy solar cycle (#24) seen in 100 years. pretty much shattered the endless stream of propaganda that emerges from the science departments of our academic institutions.
but still ignored are longer termed solar cycle variations where high activity solar cycles form groupings of 6 or more cycles. Additionally institutional science also ignores the very interesting 2:1 orbit period ratio of uranus and neptune (84 and 165 years) with the recent completion of ~40 and ~80 year warming patterns as the jupiter and saturn influence also coincided.
kind a malfeasance seen in our national health science efforts. the more money poured into it the worse our national health has become. this is despite many amazing disease cures that have been discovered. waste, fraud, and abuse is obviously rampant. it like how the Soviets went through the Lysenko era bringing tens of millions more deaths to their citizens.
For climate predicting the next 40 years looks to be like the 40 year periods post 1878 and 1944. solar activity isn’t predictable but its worth noting that the 20th century represented unprecedented solar activity never seen before in the human observation of the sun.
The February result seems to validate the January reading. The red line is still moving down. Given the potential for month-to-month variation, this may or may not represent a genuine downward trend. It certainly does not predict the future.
This is a very unusual and interesting period in the satellite record. I am not expecting any news media to claim a cooling trend in the same way they covered the upward movement and the new records.
It’s the Sun, Stupid…
Here is a graph comparing monthly time series for
– the Sun Spot Number
– global temperatures
on the base of percentiles wrt the series’ respective maximum.
For such series with completely different value ranges, this is imho the only valuable comparison method.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1YanVTQpbOvSxIBkP11-W212twIG_wzZY/view
It’s easy to see that solar activity and global temperatures don’t show any match anywhere.
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Poeple tried and tried and tried to create this match by shifting the curves according to lags of x, y, z years over 100, 200, 300 years: they never obtained anything explaining the whole.
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Sources
SILSO
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_m_tot_V2.0.txt
HadCRUT
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut5/data/HadCRUT.5.0.2.0/analysis/diagnostics/HadCRUT.5.0.2.0.analysis.summary_series.global.monthly.csv
“And Feb 1956, Jan 1963, Jan 1979, Jan 1986/87 were way, way colder than what we experienced during this recent period:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1PTd2yfGJd04OosRbFBtbW9XOoFDc2mEY/view
Its warming in Germany, final point.”
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A historically cold winter in Europe requires two things:
1. An exceptionally strong, extended blocking high over Greenland (a 180 reversal of the typical Icelandic Low-Azores High pattern):
– This advects the Arctic air over the Norwegian Sea into Europe.
– Halts or reverses the typical zonal westerly flows (which is essential for air from Siberia to retrograde into Europe).
2. Deep, extensive snow cover over Siberia:
– For a robust cold pool to reinforce persistent westward cold air advection
– Stronger pressure gradient force (PGF)
This particular atmospheric setup is quite rare, than that hasn’t stopped Bindi-dingdong trolls from invoking it to support claims of a rapid warming trend. Nevertheless, it did occur in January 1963, leading to one of the coldest winters ever recorded in Europe.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/91/4/1520-0493_1963_091_0209_twacoj_2_3_co_2.xml
As a result of the extreme positive departures near Iceland and low heights in eastern and southern Europe, the northerly flow over northern Europe was strongly augmented, veering to easterly flow over southern and western Europe.
EDIT: rare, though that hasn’t stopped