Home/BlogThe U.S. lower-48 surface temperature anomaly from my population density-adjusted (PDAT) dataset was 1.11 deg. C above the 1973-2012 average for July 2012, with a 1973-2012 linear warming trend of +0.145 deg. C/decade (click for full-size version):
I could not compute the corresponding USHCN anomaly this month because it appears the last 4 years of data in the file is missing (ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn/v2/monthly/9641C_201208_F52.avg.gz). Someone please correct me if I am mistaken.
Note that the 12-month period ending in July 2012 is also the warmest 12-month period in the 40 year record. I cannot compare these statistics to the (possibly warmer) 1930s because for the most part only max and min temperatures were reported back then, and my analysis depends upon 4x/day observations at a specific synoptic reporting times.
There is also no guarantee that my method for UHI adjustment since 1973 has done a sufficient job of removing UHI effects. A short description of the final procedure I settled on for population density adjustment of the surface temperatures can be found here.
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he contiguous 48 states’ average surface temperature has increased since 1901 at a pace of 0.16F each decade on average (see Figure 1). Since the late 1970s, average temperatures have risen more swiftly (0.31 to 0.54F every decade since 1979). Click this link https://www.a1treeservicespokane.com/
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Perhaps the similarity of their results with yours suggests that the TOBS bias adjustment (the largest adjustment made to the official temperatures) is unjustified.
Without at least a century of data, record temperatures are not very significant in the climatic context, with its distinct, albeit highly irregular, multidecadal swings back and forth.
The closeness between their findings and yours could imply that the TOBS bias adjustmentthe biggest modification to the official temperaturesis not warranted.
The globally-averaged land surface temperature for November 2012 was the sixth warmest November on record, at 1.13C (2.03F) above average.
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That’s an interesting note. It’s certainly possible that the 1930s were warmer than the 12-month period ending in July 2012, but it’s difficult to say for sure without more complete data. The lack of 4x/day observations from the 1930s makes it difficult to compare temperatures directly to the more recent data.