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Color MODIS image of Hurricane Gonzalo, late morning, Oct. 17, 2014 (click for full size).
UPDATE 7 am ET Oct. 18: As was forecast, the eye of Gonzalo passed over Bermuda last night. The highest wind gust I saw reported was 144 mph. Most of the island is without power this morning.
Before the October, 1926 arrival of catastrophic Hurricane Ten (nicknamed Valerian), it was reported that it had been over a hundred years since a hurricane hit Bermuda in October.
That hurricane arrived so quickly (moving at 40 mph) and from an unexpected direction (from almost due west), that the island was unprepared. HMS Valerian was just returning from Cuba, and was within sight of Bermuda with mild weather reported, yet never made it to port because the storm descended on the island so quickly. Most of the crew was lost as the ship sank. An anemometer in the Royal Navy Dockyard measured a 138 mph wind gust before it broke.
The next-to-worst hurricane to hit Bermuda in the last couple centuries was Fabian in 2003. Taking a path similar to Gonzalo is forecast to take as it arrives at the island tomorrow, Fabian produced sustained winds of 120 mph and a measured peak wind gust of 164 mph at an elevated measurement site on a radio tower. Damages were estimated at $300 million, the worst since 1926.
It would take another direct hit like Fabian, and a somewhat higher intensity than is currently forecast (140145130125 mph sustained winds now, 115120 115 mph sustained winds forecast as the eyewall reaches Bermuda this evening) for Gonzalo to rival either of these historic storms. But hurricane intensity fluctuations are notoriously difficult to forecast, and the current forecast path of Gonzalo remains very close to a “direct hit” which will place the most intense eyewall winds over land.
We will know in the next 8 hours or so. In the meantime, here’s our Gonzalo tracking page, and check out the slideshow of preparations from the Royal Gazette.
The eyewall of Gonzalo is now showing up on the Bermuda radar loop.
(I’m now deleting off-topic comments…I’ll let the snarky global warming ones pass for now. –RWS)
